245
FXUS61 KAKQ 272001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
401 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts offshore tonight. A warm front lifts north
on Friday, with isolated showers possible across northern
portions of the area. Warm weather is expected Saturday through
Monday. Isolated showers are possible Sunday, with a better
chance of showers and a few thunderstorms Monday afternoon into
Monday night as a cold front crosses the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- An Increased Fire Danger Statement remains in effect until 7
  PM for the Lower Maryland Eastern Shore, where frequent gusts
  to 20 mph are expected along with RH values in the lower 20s.

- Lows around 40 tonight under increasing clouds.

High pressure has shifted SE along the NC/SC coasts this afternoon
as a deep upper-level trough advances further offshore. The wind has
shifted to the W-SW, with wind speeds quite light (5-10 mph). Deep
mixing has allowed for some occasional gustiness to mix down,
however, and this mixing has also led to some widely scattered
cumulus. Temperatures have increased into the upper 50s or lower
60s (locally mid 60s). The Eastern Shore stays cooler given the
wind direction off the cooler Chesapeake Bay waters. For the
most part, dew points are in the 20s and the resultant relative
humidities are generally between 20 and 30%. Given generally
light winds, fire wx concerns are limited. The one exception is
on the MD Eastern Shore where an Increased Fire Danger Statement
is in effect until 7 PM given the gustier winds there.

Light return (SW) flow develops tonight as the high shifts further
offshore. Clear skies initially should allow temps to fall quite
fast this evening. However, lows tonight should generally be in the
lower 40s, with some upper 30s possible across the far NW and on the
MD Eastern Shore. Higher-level clouds increase closer to sunset
ahead of weak disturbance in the upper flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Turning warmer Friday, but with more clouds and a slight chance
  for showers mainly north of I-64.

- Very warm and mainly dry Saturday.

- Warmth continues into Sunday with increased cloud cover.

The surface high shifts well offshore on Friday, as a warm front
lifts N through the OH Valley towards the Great Lakes. Upper heights
rise as well as ridging over the Plains builds eastward. The warm
front will move north of most of the area on Friday, although it may
struggle to cross the VA Northern Neck and especially the Lower MD
Eastern Shore. It will be much warmer (mid to potentially upper 70s)
in most areas with cooler temps (upper 60s or lower 70s) and a
slight chance for showers across the northern 1/3 of the FA. Shower
chances will mainly be across the NW in the late morning, shifting
to the NE by aftn/evening. The afternoon CAMs are generally less
aggressive with the shower coverage and have confined the slight
chance-chance PoPs N of Richmond, eastward into the Northern
Neck and MD Eastern Shore. Skies average partly cloudy south of
the front, with thicker cloud cover expected farther N/NE.
Again, confidence remains quite low and any QPF amounts would
generally be limited to a few hundredths of an inch at most.
Outside of this potential, dry conditions are again expected and
temp/dew point combinations lead to RH values in the 25-40%
range. With gusty winds of 20-25 mph, an Increased Fire Danger
Statement may be required for most of the area. Dry and warm Fri
night and Saturday with the CWA into the warm sector. Lows Fri
night in the 50s, with highs Sat in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
along with a breezy SW wind. Remaining dry and mild Sat night
with lows in the upper 50s to around 60 F.

A pattern change is expected starting Sunday with increasing cloud
cover throughout the area by the afternoon/evening as a weak
southern stream shortwave tracks over the area and a deeper upper
trough moves NE through the Plains and Midwest. The 12z
deterministic guidance has trended drier for Sunday and am not
expecting much precip outside of a brief sprinkle/shower or two.
PoPs are quite low during the day and around 20% W of I-95 for most
of Sunday. Slightly cooler, but still mild, with highs in the mid-
upper 70s. A few areas could reach 80 F across the eastern FA,
especially where lower cloud cover is realized.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Well above normal temperatures prevail for the weekend.

- A chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday/Monday night
  association with a cold front.

- Seasonably cool and dry on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Attention then turns to a stronger low pressure system that is
progged to quickly track NE from the Midwest to New England from
Sunday through Monday. This system will eventually drag a cold front
toward the area on Monday...with the front progged to cross the area
late Monday into Monday night. Ahead of the cold front, a wave of
showers are possible late Sunday night as WAA increases and
southerly flow strengthens. The ECMWF has higher coverage of precip
during this period, but will depict slightly higher PoPs (20-30%)
overnight Sunday. Precip chances briefly earlier Sunday before
scattered to numerous showers and a few tstms develop along and
ahead of the front on Monday (and track across the area from west to
east during the afternoon and evening...potentially lingering into
Mon night near the coast). Temps rise to around 80F with dew pts
rising into the lower to perhaps mid 60s ahead of the front on
Monday. This should be enough for modest sfc-based instability to
develop by the afternoon. Even though there will also be a decent
amount of deep-layer shear...there is still uncertainty is present
at this range regarding any potential severe wx Monday afternoon and
evening. SPC maintains a 15% severe risk for Monday, but notes that
refinements are likely over the coming days as forecast
uncertainties decreases. PoPs are well into the likely range and
thunderstorms are a good bet given the available instability. Precip
chances end from west to east Monday night behind the front, with
cooler, dry, but seasonable wx expected on Tue/Wed with highs mainly
in the 60s. Another warming trend potentially begins as we near the
end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals for the 18z/27 period. High
pressure continues to dominate the area while sliding offshore. A
few cumulus clouds have begun to form in the northern part of the
area, but clear skies will continue at the TAF terminals until
tonight. Winds are generally NW inland (NE near the coast at ORF) at
5-10 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt (gusts up to 25 kt at SBY).
Winds will shift out of the SW later tonight beginning around 00z
and then increase after sunrise with some gusts up to 20 kt. Clouds
will increase slightly early tomorrow morning around 08z/28 ahead of
the next system with clouds remaining mid to high level.

Outlook: Mainly VFR from Friday through Saturday. A slight chance
for showers returns Friday afternoon (mainly at SBY). Intermittent
flight restrictions are possible in showers on Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and
lower James tonight for gusty southerly winds.

- SW winds increase Friday night into early Saturday with additional
SCAs possible.

- A prolonged period of SCA conditions is possible Sun night into
Tue as a cold front moves across the local waters.

High pressure is shifting E of the waters this afternoon. Winds are
generally N-NE across most of the local waters, though the wind
direction remains out of the W over the waters offshore of the
Eastern Shore.  As the high shifts offshore this evening into
tonight, the wind direction is expected to shift to the S, with the
wind speeds increasing to 15-20 kt across the Chesapeake Bay, lower
James, and coastal waters. Consistent with the previous shift`s
reasoning, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Chesapeake
Bay and lower James River this evening into early Friday morning.
Overall, this event is marginal and have decided to keep the coastal
waters out of the SCA.

The wind direction becomes SW 10-15 kt on Friday with high pressure
well offshore. Occasional gustiness to 20-25 kt are possible,
especially nearshore and in the local tidal rivers and lower
Chesapeake Bay. Later in the evening and Friday night, SW winds
increase again and Small Craft Advisories are likely. Will allow
current headlines to expire on Friday before any additional
headlines are issued. Wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds are
80- 100% with wind probs for 25 kt gusts 40-60% (locally 80%)
across the coastal waters. Winds drop below SCA criteria Sat
through Sun before S winds become elevated once again Sun night
into Mon ahead of an approaching cold front. An area of low
pressure moves across the Great Lakes and interior New
England/Canada Mon. This will push a cold front across the local
waters Mon evening/early Mon night. Winds likely increase as
they become NW/N behind the cold front Mon night into Tue with
solid SCA conditions likely given the strength of the CAA.

Waves and seas of 1-3 ft are expected through today. Waves build to
2-3 ft tonight with seas building to 3-4 ft. Seas of 4-5 ft are
possible Fri night into early Sat morning. Another period of
elevated seas is expected Sun into Tue as seas build to 4-6 ft due
to elevated winds ahead of and behind a cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...

Dry conditions are again likely Friday, though RHs will tend to
be a 5-10% higher than today. Still, winds will be higher (gusts
to 20-25 mph) and given drying over the previous few days, an
Increased Fire Danger Statement may be required for portions of
the area.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Friday for ANZ638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI/SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...ERI/SW
LONG TERM...ERI/SW
AVIATION...ERI/KMC
MARINE...RMM/SW
FIRE WEATHER...