124
FXUS61 KAKQ 092330
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
730 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A few strong to severe storms are possible through this evening
across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. Cooler
weather is expected tonight into early next week. Unsettled
weather returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 730 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Storms have moved offshore with just some lingering showers
  this evening.

- Cooler tonight with lows falling into the mid 40s-lower 50s.

The surface cold front as moved through the area this evening. A
few stronger storms were able to develop across far SE VA into
NE NC late in the afternoon but have since moved offshore. Some
lingering light rain is noted near Richmond and points east,
expect this area of precip to continue to shrink over the next
hour or two. Farther south, guidance keeps the chance for
additional showers through 10pm or so before all precip moves
offshore and drier air filters into the region from the NW.

Temperatures will drop into the mid 40s W to low/mid 50s E
overnight as cooler air filters in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler, drier weather arrives Saturday and Sunday.

- Shower chances return to the area by Monday.

Dry/pleasant wx is expected on Saturday as the low pressure system
tracks toward Nova Scotia and high pressure builds into the local
area. Dew points drop into the upper 30s-lower 40s during the day w/
highs in the lower-mid 70s. Looking ahead, another upper low will be
parked across the western Gulf Coast over the weekend before it
finally starts to eject ENE by Monday. High pressure remains in
control locally on Sunday before pushing offshore on Monday as deep
moisture begins to return to the area as that next system
approaches. Dry/warm on Monday with more cloud cover (especially S).
Highs will be near 80F across most of the area, with mid to upper
70s S where there is more cloud cover. Precip most likely remains
suppressed to our south through the weekend. Clouds continue to
increase Sunday night into Monday as that next system approaches,
with scattered showers expected across the SW 2/3 of the FA by
Monday afternoon (although thunder isn`t in the forecast due to
minimal instability present). Depending on the arrival of the
precip, temps may struggle to get much above 70F across SW portions
of the area, with another day well into the 70s elsewhere (although
with noticeably more humidity).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- An unsettled pattern develops next week. Widespread rainfall totals
  in excess of 1" are possible from Tuesday-Wednesday. Will
  continue to monitor the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe for
  localized flooding potential.

- Warmer temperatures return by the middle of next week.

Unsettled wx is expected from Monday night through at least Thursday
as the above mentioned upper low transitions into an open wave as it
approaches and slowly crosses the area. Tuesday looks to be the
wettest day next week, with numerous showers (and perhaps a few
tstms) expected for much of the day (and into Tuesday night) as a
weak warm front slowly crosses the area, shifting winds from the SE
to SSW. With PWs rising to 1.6-1.8" area-wide, we could easily see
widespread rain amounts on the order of 1". In fact, the EPS and
CMC ensembles have 30-60% probs of at least 1" of rain from Tuesday
morning-Wednesday morning. Diurnally driven showers and tstms are
expected on Wednesday and Thursday (highest coverage during the
aftn/evening) as the upper low passes by. Precip chances fall a bit
on Friday...but still can`t rule out a few showers and storms. With
elevated rainfall amounts expected, isolated instances of flash
flooding may be possible starting Tuesday, especially in urban and
poor drainage areas. After temps struggle to get out of the low-mid
70s on Tuesday, southerly flow will allow for a warming trend
starting Wednesday through the end of the week, with highs in the
80s forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Friday...

Improving conditions this evening as showers and storms
translate offshore and drier air moves into the region. Showers
will remain possible for the next few hours at ECG, and have
maintained a TEMPO there until 10pm for MVFR CIGs/VSBY. Some
light rain is also possible at PHF and maybe SBY as an area of
precip east of RIC diminishes. NW winds bring drier air and
clearing skies tonight.

High pressure returns to the region tonight, bringing VFR
conditions through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect through Saturday morning for
  elevated NW winds.

- Benign marine conditions return Saturday through Monday.

Winds have shifted to the NW across most of the waters this
afternoon as a cold front approaches. Wind speeds have increased to
15-20 kt across the northern Chesapeake Bay and have started the
Small Craft Advisory here. Have SCAs starting at 4 PM for the
southern bay, 7 PM for the lower James River, and 10 PM-1 AM for the
coastal waters. Recent guidance is less aggressive with the cold air
surge later tonight, so the SCAs on the coastal waters look quite
marginal (best chance for gusts 25-30 kt N of Parramore Island).
Elsewhere, expecting winds to top out around 20 kt with gusts to
around 25 kt. Showers and storms could also produce locally higher
wind gusts this afternoon into this evening. SCAs are in effect
through Saturday morning, followed by quickly diminishing winds
Saturday afternoon and evening, along with a wind shift to the W.
Benign marine conditions are then expected Sunday through most of
the Monday. Later Monday into Tuesday, the pressure gradient
tightens some as low pressure approaches from the SW and SE winds
increase to 15-20 kt with SCAs possible. Outside of any locally
higher winds from thunderstorms, there does not appear to be any
significant marine threat beyond Tuesday.

Waves on the bay increase to 2-3 ft (locally 4 ft) this evening
with seas increasing to 3-5 ft. This should be rather short-lived
and seas fall to 3-4 ft by Saturday afternoon and then to 2-3 ft for
Sunday and Monday. Another increase in seas is likely by Tuesday
with the increased SE flow.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-
     654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM/NB
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...ERI/NB
AVIATION...ERI/RHR
MARINE...SW