260
FXUS61 KAKQ 241755
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
155 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight. The front
crosses the area Monday, bringing dry and very pleasant
conditions for the rest of next week with below normal
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated showers/storms are possible through late this evening in
  the Piedmont.

- HIGH risk of rip currents continues at all area beaches today.

High pressure is situated well off the New England coast this
afternoon, with weak low pressure tracking off the NC coast. The
coastal low is tracking farther south than was expected yesterday.
As a result, little to no rain has fallen in the FA. A stronger low
pressure system is tracking through Ontario/Quebec, which is
currently dragging a cold front through the Great Lakes and OH/TN
Valleys. Locally, skies are partly to mostly cloudy with a mix of
SCT cumulus and high clouds. With low level ESE-SE flow, dew pts
have risen into the mid to upper 60s, while temps are in the upper
70s-lower 80s. Some convection has developed to our W/NW across the
mountains of VA/eastern WV where mesoanalysis shows ~1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE. With the offshore low, there is little to no instability
across our area except in the Piedmont where there is a few
hundred J/kg of MLCAPE.

Showers/tstms are expected to increase a little bit in coverage to
our W/NW later this aftn and potentially move into the Piedmont this
evening. The most likely window for convection is in the 5-11
PM timeframe. Still, PoPs are only ~20% and confined to well W
of I-95. Given relatively weak instability, no severe wx is
expected, but brief heavy rain is possible in any storm. Further
E through the I-95 corridor, Northern Neck, and Eastern Shore,
mainly dry wx is expected. The front nears the area by late
tonight with lows dropping into the mid 60s. Any lingering
convection should dissipate by 1 AM or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A few showers and storms remain possible across SE VA/NE NC on Monday.
  Otherwise, seasonable temperatures in the mid- upper 80s are
  expected.

- Dry, comfortable weather with noticeably lower humidity is expected
  on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The cold front swings through Monday, likely in the late morning or
afternoon. While it will be warm (widespread lower-mid 80s with
upper 80s SE), dew pts drop into the 50s during the aftn along and
west of I-95. Higher dew pts (~70F) linger across SE VA/NE NC
through the day. As a result, isolated showers/tstms are possible
here through the aftn/early evening before the post-frontal, drier
airmass arrives from the NW. Still feel that coverage will be quite
sparse so PoPs are only 20% to locally 30%. Stronger CAA arrives
later Monday evening/Monday night, allowing for comfortable lows in
the upper 50s W to low-mid 60s E.

A deep trough begins to dig over the eastern CONUS on Tuesday and
becomes more amplified by Wednesday. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure
builds over the Plains/Midwest on Tue and shifts east (but is still
progged to be centered to our west) by Wednesday. The low-level flow
will be light out of the N-NW through the period, leading to
pleasant wx with highs only around 80F and dew points in the 50s
each day. The current low temp forecast has upper 50s-lower 60s
Tuesday night, but wouldn`t be surprised if reality ends up a few
degrees cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Very nice late next week and potentially through Labor Day weekend
  with comfortable temperatures and humidity.

Very nice, fall like wx is expected to continue late next week as
deep troughing remains in place over the area. Meanwhile, the above
mentioned surface high builds over the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. A
couple of shortwaves rotating through should also provide
reinforcing shots of cooler and drier air. Dry wx is expected
through at least Friday as high pressure remains in control and any
appreciable deep layered moisture will be suppressed well to our
south. Highs through the week are likely to be several degrees below
normal and in the mid 70s to around 80F. Lows should generally be in
the mid 50s inland and low 60s in the east. The latest 12z
statistical model guidance continues to show some potential for
upper 40s across the Piedmont Wednesday night as the sfc high
settles overhead.

Current indications are similar wx continues into the first part of
the Labor Day weekend, though low end rain chances may return by
late in the weekend (although this is highly uncertain).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions, SCT-BKN cumulus, and dry wx prevail early this
aftn with low pressure offshore of the NC coast and a cold front
still well to our NW. Could see some brief MVFR at ORF/ECG
between now and 21z, but otherwise VFR conditions will prevail
through the period. Watching convection developing in the
mountains which will try to move east this evening. However, it
should weaken well before approaching RIC. Dry tonight with high
clouds. The cold front crosses the terminals on Monday. The dry
wx continues at RIC/SBY/PHF, but there is a 20-30% chc of
aftn/evening tstms at ORF/ECG. Mainly clear tonight with VRB
winds 5 kt or less. Winds then become N-NW at 5-10 kt by later
Monday behind the cold front.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR with dry wx is expected from Monday
night through the end of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 705 AM EDT Sunday...

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this afternoon
  and early evening due to hazardous seas.

- Otherwise, S-SE winds of 10-15 kt prevail tonight with high
pressure offshore.

- Cool high pressure builds over the waters late Monday night
through midweek.

Latest analysis shows 1024+mb sfc high pressure offshore of the
Canadian Maritimes and the eastern New England coast. To the south,
a quasi-stationary frontal boundary/coastal trough remains in place
along the SC/GA coast, extending west across the Florida Panhandle.
A weak wave of low pressure has developed along this front early
this morning, and has served to veer light winds around from the E-
SE to the S-SE across the local waters, with winds averaging 8-10
kt. Choppy seas from the lingering long period swells continue to
hold up seas into the 3-5 ft range, closer to 4-6 ft south of Cape
Charles and points offshore early this morning.

The low to the south will lift NE across the offshore waters later
today, bringing with it a chance for showers and perhaps a t-storm
or two south of Chincoteague this afternoon into early evening.
Winds back to the E-SE this afternoon ~10 kt. Seas finally look to
finally drop below 5ft by late this morning into early afternoon
over the northern and central waters. However, SCA will hang
tough over the southern zones, with swells from the remnants of
Erin and the previously referenced weak coastal low teaming up
to produce some 6-8 second wind waves that may hold up seas just
a bit longer into tonight. SCA may need to remain in place for
(ANZ656) waters south of Cape Charles into late this afternoon,
mainly for seas. Better probability of 5 foot seas lingering
into tonight over the southern waters, and have therefore
extended the SCA over the far southern Atlantic coastal zone
south of the VA/NC border into this evening for the same reason.


Looking ahead, more benign marine conditions look to prevail late
tonight into midweek. Winds veer around to the SSW tonight behind
the departing low into Monday morning, with winds then turning NW
and increasing slightly to 10-15kt later Monday into Monday night.
A second, stronger front then crosses the waters Monday night into
Tuesday. Wind probs for gusts ~20 kt remain ~30-50% in the bay, and
thus a brief period of marginal SCA winds remains possible around
and just before sunrise Tuesday morning, as cooler, drier air builds
south across the local waters. Sub-SCA NW winds then persist Wed-
Thu, as cool high pressure builds over the waters from the NW.
Models are depicting weak low pressure developing out in the western
Atlantic along the front late Wed into Thu, which would veer winds
back to the SSE by late week.

Rip Currents: With lingering long-period (10-14sec) swells and
nearshore breaking waves of 4-5 ft, dangerous swimming conditions
and high risk of rip currents is expected through Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 315 AM EDT Sunday...

Tidal anomalies continue to gradually lower in the lower bay, but
are still about +1.3 to 1.5 ft above normal, so additional mainly
minor flooding that is ongoing at this time over the tidal Potomac
and the bay side of the Lower Eastern Shore of MD continues into
high tide cycles late tonight/early Monday. This entails allowing
Coastal Flood Warnings to drop off with this morning`s high tide
cycle across the north, to be replaced by Coastal Flood Advisories,
which will also continue over the tidal York and Rappahannock Rivers
into the high tide cycle late this morning into early afternoon.
Farther south, easing anomalies should allow for improving tides
over the next few cycles, and while some nuisance tidal flooding
remains possible, tide levels should ease enough to allow Coastal
Flood Statements to also drop off with this package.

By this evening, lingering minor coastal flooding looks to drop off
after the high tide cycle late tonight/early Monday over the lower
MD Eastern Shore and the upper Bay/tidal Potomac. After that point,
tides look to finally ease a bit into the day Monday and into
midweek as winds switch offshore.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ076-078-084>086-518-520>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/SW
LONG TERM...ERI/SW
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...