341
FXUS61 KAKQ 101154
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
654 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions continue through late afternoon. Low
pressure is expected to lift northeast from the Gulf coast
today, tracking along the Carolina coast tonight into Saturday,
bringing additional winter weather to the region. Dry
conditions return later this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Winter Storm Warnings have been expanded northward to
  encompass the previous Winter Storm Watch area in Cumberland,
  Powhatan, western Chesterfield, and Henrico counties as well
  as the Richmond metro. The Warning has also been expanded to
  the south to include Hertford, and Gates counties in NC and
  Suffolk and Chesapeake counties in VA as well as Portsmouth
  and Norfolk metro.

- Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for all other zones
  including coastal portions of Wicomico and Currituck
  counties.

- Moderate to locally heavy snowfall will result in 2-4" snow
  accumulations with increasing potential for a band of 4-6"
  within the broader Winter Storm Warning footprint.


Strong low pressure continues to linger east of Maine with transient
high pressure noted over southern OH and western WV. Our next system
continues to develop across the northern Gulf Coast. A northern
stream trough over central Canada will begin to phase with the
southern stream disturbance and amplify across the SE CONUS this
evening. Consensus of the 00z guidance shows higher QPF across the
region with the more amplified system. Confidence in the timing,
strength, and placement of surface and upper level features
continues to increase and Winter Storm Warnings have been expanded
to the N and SE with this forecast package. Strong FGEN is noted on
both the GFS and NAM solutions across northern NC tonight with
increasing confidence in seeing a mesoscale band of enhanced lift
and resulting snowfall totals. There remains some modest
disagreement in the guidance over where this heavier snowfall band
will end up but the northern solutions (GFS, NAM) have shifted south
while the southern camp (ECMWF, HRRR) have shifted north. Best guess
at this time shows FGEN near and south of the VA/NC border with the
heaviest snowfall just north of this area. Generally along and ~25
miles either side of a line from Lunenburg county ENE to the Tri-
Cities, Williamsburg, and into the VA Eastern Shore. Some
adjustments to this area are possible today but not expecting
drastic departures from this idea. Snow totals will average 2-4" in
the warning area with 4-6+" possible in the mesoscale band. Forecast
soundings continue to show a warm nose aloft lifting into the
southern third of the area late tonight with increasing chances for
mixed precip and reduced snowfall totals. Latest guidance shows more
in the way of sleet across the northern half of the mixed precip
area with more freezing rain for the southern half. Ice accretion
will be rather limited compared to the early week event with most
areas seeing a few hundredths to perhaps a tenth of an inch of ice.
This will be a quick-hitting system with moisture rapidly decreasing
across the west toward sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Winter precip comes to an end quickly Saturday morning with all
  precip moving offshore around noon.

- Additional accumulations will be light over central VA with around
  0.5" of snowfall possible for the MD/VA Eastern Shore.

Forecast soundings show rapid drying aloft through the morning hours
with clouds clearing rapidly from west to east by late morning/early
afternoon. Temperatures will be tricky with any sunshine going into
melting frozen precip or being reflected away from the surface. Will
maintain highs in the 30s to low 40s but this may be a bit
optimistic depending on just how much snow is on the ground. We will
cool off quickly by mid to late afternoon and especially into the
evening and overnight hours with high pressure building in from the
west. Mostly clear skies and snowpack allow temps plummet into the
teens over most of the area with some low 20s for NE NC and the
Eastern Shore.

Dry and cold on Sunday with highs in the 30s to low 40s as high
pressure moves over the area. Cold Sunday night with lows falling
back into the teens and low 20s. Areas with more snow could be a few
degrees colder with good radiational cooling conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Slightly warmer Monday, with another surge of well  below normal
temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. Generally  dry through the
period.

- Cold Weather Advisories may be needed at times next week,
especially on Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

We start out the beginning of the forecast period on Monday "warmer"
than we have been for a little while, due to high pressure centering
offshore allowing for return flow over the region. High temperatures
will range from the lower 40s across the NW to around 50 in NE NC by
the Albemarle Sound. Portions of the MD Eastern Shore likely stay
in the upper 30s on Monday. It remains dry and mostly sunny/mostly
clear through the period. Models remain in good agreement in regards
to another anomalous, deep upper trough diving ESE from the Upper
Midwest to New England Monday night through Wednesday. This will
result in another round of very cold/well below normal temperatures
Monday night through Thursday. Highs will mainly be in the 30s and
low in the teens through this timeframe with a blustery NW wind
making it feel colder at times. Wednesday is still looking to be the
coldest day of the forecast period with high temperatures only in
the upper 20s to around 30 across the north, to the mid to upper 30s
further south. Cold Weather Advisories will likely be needed at
times next week, with the highest potential at this time being
Tuesday night/Wednesday AM and Wednesday night/Thursday AM where we
may see wind chill values as low as 0-5 degrees across the northern
half of the area and upper single digits to lower teens further
south.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 650 AM EST Friday...

VFR flight conditions continue this morning through this
afternoon. Clear skies this morning, with gradually
increasing/thickening mid and high clouds later into the
afternoon ahead of our next wintry system. WNW winds of 5-10 kt
this morning...a few gusts to ~15 kt are possible at SBY and
ORF. Winds this afternoon become light and variable to SW. A
quick-moving winter system affects the region this evening into
tonight, leading to rapidly deteriorating flying conditions.
Light to moderate snow spreads from west to east, first
impacting the Piedmont/RIC ~00z and quickly spreading east to
the remaining sites by ~03z. Significantly reduced VSBYs/CIGs
are expected with the snow, with IFR to LIFR flying conditions
likely after ~06z. Periods of +SN are possible after 06z
tonight. A changeover to IP or -FZRA and then RA is expected
early Sat across the SE (including ECG/ORF).

Outlook:
Some snow lingers at SBY into the daylight hours of Saturday
with a mix to rain at ORF after 12z. Dry conditions return Sat
afternoon with VFR prevailing through the rest of the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the local waters
  through this morning/afternoon.

- Another area of low pressure approaches the region this
  evening and moves across the area Saturday, likely bringing
  solid SCA conditions back to the local waters.

- NW winds and unsettled marine conditions return late Monday
  night into the middle of next week.

NW winds have diminished to 15-25 kt (w/ frequent 25-30 kt gusts)
early this morning as high pressure continues to build toward the
waters and strong low pressure over Atlantic Canada tracks away from
the area. SCAs are in effect for all zones, but these expire from
this morning-aftn since winds will rapidly diminish as the surface
high briefly settles over the area later today.

The high quickly moves offshore tonight as our next system
approaches from the SW. Winds become SSW at 10-15 kt tonight before
turning to the NW on Saturday as low pressure strengthens offshore.
Winds quickly increase to 20-25 kt (w/ gusts to 30 kt) by Saturday
afternoon before peaking at ~25 kt Saturday evening as a secondary
push of CAA arrives behind that low pressure system. A few 35 kt
gusts are possible between 6 PM-2 AM Saturday night...but local wind
probs continue to show only a low chance for gale conditions with
this next system (w/ higher probs focused well offshore outside of
our marine zones). Given that we have SCAs that are already in
effect, will refrain from issuing headlines for Sat aftn-Sat night
attm. Conditions improve on Sunday with sub-SCA conditions
continuing into Monday as high pressure moves in from the west.
Unsettled conditions return late Monday night into the midweek
period as low pressure to the north brings another cold front across
the waters.

2-4 ft waves in the Ches Bay will subside today before increasing
back into the 3-4 ft range as winds increase behind Saturday`s
system. Seas build to 4 to 6 foot seas fall below 5 ft everywhere by
no later than this aftn. Seas build back to 3-6 ft in offshore flow
Saturday into early Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 635 AM EST Friday...

Prolonged NW winds have allowed tidal anomalies to fall across the
region. Low Water Advisories remain in effect for the Currituck
Sound and Rappahannock River through this aftn/evening, but the
advisories for the James River and SE VA coastal waters have
been allowed to expire (and tides should remain above low water
thresholds today). Overall, expect low water conditions to
improve as winds subside today...although low water conditions
may last through part of tonight especially on the Currituck
Sound given how low levels are at this hour.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for MDZ021>025.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for NCZ012.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for NCZ013-014.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for VAZ048-062-064-075>078-098-509>512-517-519-
     521-522.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for VAZ060-061-065>069-079>090-092-093-099-100-
     513>516-518-520-523>525.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for VAZ095>097.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     Low Water Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633.
     Low Water Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ635.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...ERI/MRD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...