928
FXUS61 KAKQ 191335
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
935 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and much warmer conditions expected today. A front
dips into the region on Sunday before lifting back northward on
Monday. Rain chances hold off until next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 935 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Breezy and very warm today with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Bermuda high pressure remains anchored offshore with surface
low pressure over the Great Lakes. A cold front extends south
and west from the low all the way into SE TX. A building ridge
aloft will expand NE from the central Gulf into the Mid Atlantic
today.

Temps as of 930 AM ranged from the mid 60s to near 70F under
partly cloudy skies. Very warm and remaining dry today with
continued breezy SW winds resulting from low pressure to the NW
and high pressure offshore. Wind gusts up to 25-30 mph are
possible today with the strongest winds along the coast and
across the Eastern Shore. Afternoon temps rise well into the 80s
inland with even some upper 80s to around 90 degree readings
possible as heights aloft continue to build. The only change to
the forecast was increasing highs today across the Eastern Shore
and E VA given strong mixing from SW winds likely allowing temps
to overperform. Clouds increase tonight with lows in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Backdoor cold front drops south and west Sunday, leading to a
  range of temps across the area.

- The front lifts back to the north on Monday with low level
  moisture increasing ahead of an approaching cold front.

Tricky temperature forecast for Sunday with a front dropping into
the area. Latest guidance shows the backdoor front making it through
the entire area on Sunday but colder air/onshore flow will lag
behind the surface boundary by a few hours. Temps will likely be
able to rise into the low 80s across the SW half of the area before
falling off in the afternoon. The NE half of the region will not see
temps increase much from their mid morning values before falling off
considerably through the afternoon. Skies will be partly to mostly
cloudy through the day with some thinning in the cloud cover
expected by mid to late afternoon across the NE. Wide range of temps
overnight as well with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s for the
Eastern Shore with mid and upper 50s for the remainder of the
region.

The front will lift north as a warm front on Monday with southerly
flow and thinning clouds by the afternoon. Staying dry through the
day with highs in the 80s inland and 60s to low 70s for the Eastern
Shore. A very slight chance for a few showers across the far N and
NW Monday night but not expecting more than a trace of precip at
most. Mild once again with lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Weakening frontal boundary will meander over the region mid to
  late week with mainly diurnal chances for showers and a few storms.


- Above normal temperatures continue with highs in the 80s through
  the week.

Strong upper ridging near Florida will be shunted south and east mid
to late week, allowing broad SW flow aloft and a return of scattered
showers and storms. Temps rise into the 80s Tuesday with PoPs 30-50%
(highest SW) during the afternoon, spreading SE into the evening and
overnight hours. Slightly cooler Wednesday but temps still approach
the 80 degree mark away from the coast. There is a chance for
scattered afternoon and evening showers across the southern half
of the area. Pattern remains stagnant with temps in the 80s
Thursday and Friday with a slight chance for diurnal showers.
Lows through the period will be mild, generally in the 50s and
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period. SW winds
remain gusty early this morning despite the unfavorable diurnal
timing. SW winds ~15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt continue through
the day before decreasing a bit this evening. Guidance suggests
there will be another stint of LLWS at SBY tonight, potentially
also impacting RIC but confidence is too low to include in the
forecast at this time. Not much low level moisture evident on
forecast soundings but a few CU could form this afternoon near
ECG.

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions continue this weekend. The next
shot at widespread precipitation looks to be early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- SSW winds remain elevated today, the diminish tonight. SCAs
  are in effect for most of the marine area.

Latest analysis indicates 1025+mb high pressure well offshore of
the lingering offshore of the Carolina coast early this morning,
with ~1000mb sfc low pressure drifting east across the upper
Great Lakes. This will continue to bring elevated SSW winds
through late aftn/evening across the marine area and as such,
SCAs are in effect for all zones except the coastal waters S of
Cape Charles. Expect SSW winds 15-20 kt today with gusts
generally to 25 kt, but up to 30 kt where gradient is tightest
across the northern coastal waters. Waves in the bay will
average 2-3 ft into this evening, with seas 2-4 ft expected
south of Cape Charles Light and 4-6 ft to the north.

As the cold front slowly approaches from the NW tonight, the
pressure gradient relaxes, and eventually does finally drop
south through Sunday. Could see a bit of a surge as this occurs,
but for now the surge looks to be sub- SCA, as the front
gradually weakens as it drops across the area. Nonetheless,
expect winds quickly veer from SSW to NE ~10-15 kt Sunday into
Sunday aftn, then gradually shifting back to the SSE Monday with
another warm front lifting through the region. A trailing cold
front then approaches from the west, slowly crossing into the
region late Tuesday, with SCA headlines potentially being
needed over the Bay ahead of this boundary.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630-
     631-635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ632>634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR/RMM
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...LKB/MAM