900
FXUS61 KAKQ 011054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
654 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, and a cold front will
push south of the entire region by around midday today. Behind
the front, north then northeast winds associated with high
pressure will bring cooler temperatures and lower humidity for
today and Tuesday. Heat and humidity return later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Early this morning, sctd showers and a few tstms with heavy rain
right in advance of a cold front, were pushing ESE across the
srn two thirds of the region. These showers and possible tstms
will continue to move ESE and eventually push south of the
entire area by around midday today. Behind the front, winds will
shift abruptly to the N/NE, and become gusty to 20-30 mph, as
much cooler and drier air starts to filter in. The sky will
gradually become mostly sunny from NW to SE from later this
morning through this aftn. With dew pts falling into the 50s
most areas, and highs holding in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
peak heat indices today will be an astounding 25 to 30 degrees
lower than yesterday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Clear or mostly clear and comfortable tonight, as sfc high
pressure builds in from the N. Lows will be mainly in the mid
50s to around 60F along and W of I-95, and 60-65F to the east.
The center of the sfc high will move to just off the srn New
England coast Tue. Generally mostly sunny with SCT aftn CU and
still rather comfortable, with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s at the coast, and in the mid 80s inland/Piedmont. Dew pts
remain in the 50s to lower 60s. The sfc high will sit just off
the New England and Mid Atlc coast Tue night and Wed. Clear to
partly cloudy and still rather comfortable Tue night, with lows
in the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s. The models show good consensus
for the return of the upper ridge over the SE CONUS by midweek,
with Wed being the transition day. With sfc high pressure still
centered just off the coast Wed, conditions will be warmer and
just slightly more humid, but still near average for early
July, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s (lower 80s at
the coast). Generally mostly sunny again. Dry and more humid Wed
night with lows in the mid 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

- Key Message: Heat and humidity return.

After a nice break from the heat, there is strong model consensus
for a return to hot and humid weather starting Thu/Independence
Day. An upper level ridge will be in place over the SE CONUS,
slowly shifting off the east coast into next weekend. Highs look
to range from the mid to upper 90s well inland, and in the 90-95F
range closer to the coast Thu-Sat. Perhaps trending slightly
cooler by Sun, as the next cold front pushes in from the W.
With dewpoints climbing back into the 70-75F range, heat indices
will likely be at least 100-105F. As for PoPs, expect daily
chances for isolated/sctd mainly aftn/evening tstms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 AM EDT Monday...

Expect mainly VFR or MVFR conditions at the TAF sites until
around midday today, as sctd showers and a few tstms, and a
cold front pushes through the area. Any heavier showers or a
tstm will be capable of producing brief IFR flight restrictions.
Winds shift to the NNE this morning and will be gusty, esply at
the coast. Could see a period of MVFR CIGs at PHF/ORF/ECG early
this behind the front. Then, mainly VFR conditions expected for
this aftn through Wed, as high pressure provides dry weather.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 655 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

- A Moderate Rip Current Risk for all area beaches today.

- A period of SCA conditions is expected across the entire
  marine area through late morning/early afternoon. Occasional
  gusts of ~35 knots are possible on the bay between 3 and 9 AM
  Monday morning.

- High pressure builds from the northwest for the midweek period,
  with more benign marine conditions Tuesday through midweek.

Latest analysis reveals sfc low pressure off the New England
coast, with the associated surface cold front dropping across
the waters early this morning. As of 11z, winds have become NNW
over the entire region, with the front about to cross south of
the Albemarle Sound. NW winds of 20-25kt (w/ gusts to 30 kt)
are expected through mid to late morning before gradually
diminishing through the afternoon. SCA remain in effect for the
entire marine area until 10a for the coastal waters north of
Cape Charles, and into the afternoon elsewhere. Seas build to
3-5ft through mid- morning, waves increase to 2-4ft waves in the
bay.

Winds slowly diminish this afternoon, turning to the NE 10-15kt
tonight into Tuesday as high pressure builds SE toward the New
England coast. Some gusts to ~20 kt will be possible in the
lower bay and lower James before midnight tonight/early Tuesday
before gradually diminishing. Seas slowly subside to ~3ft this
evening as high pressure builds to the NW of the local waters.
The high eventually settles S off the coastal Carolinas by
midweek with the wind becoming southerly.

Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk is forecast for all
beaches for the rest of today and Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>634-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AM/MAM