933
FXUS61 KAKQ 040123
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
923 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Below average temperatures, lower humidity, and mainly dry
conditions persist early this week as strong high pressure
builds to our north. Moisture will slowly build back into the
region mid to late this week with afternoon temperatures
remaining below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 920 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and pleasant tonight with high pressure over the region.

Only very minor changes were made to to the going forecast with
the evening update. Temps have dropped off into the mid
60s-lower 70s (locally lower 60s across the far NW) as of 9 PM.
Watching BKN-OVC high clouds that are over much of the area.
Clearing is expected from NW-SE overnight...but temps may end up
a couple degrees higher than last night (especially SE) if the
clouds clear slower than expected (or don`t clear at all).

Previous Discussion as of 325 PM EDT...

An upper trough extends from the Great Lakes to the Northeast
this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure extends from the
Great Lakes to northern Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, low pressure is
developing well offshore of the Carolina coast. Partly to
mostly sunny with scattered fair weather cumulus and cirrus
spreading in from the SW. Temperatures range from the mid 70s to
around 80F. The wind is NE 5-10 mph well inland and 10-15 mph
with gusts to 20-25 mph closer to and along the coast. Drier
Canadian air associated with the surface high will result in
another very pleasant night with lows in the mid 50s to lower
60s. Warmer at the coast with lows in the mid to upper 60s where
a a light NE wind will persist. Patchy shallow ground fog is
possible inland toward morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Below normal temperatures continue from Canadian high
  pressure.

- Dry Tuesday, with moisture returning Wednesday.

Another area of strong high pressure (~1030mb) builds across
Quebec Monday and Tuesday, and settles over the lower Saint
Lawrence Valley and New England by Wednesday. High temperatures
Monday and Tuesday will be slightly warmer than today, but still
below average and in the lower to mid 80s. Dewpoints will
remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s Monday and in the lower to
mid 60s Tuesday maintaining rather pleasant conditions.
Comfortable Tuesday morning with lows in the upper 50s to mid
60s and locally warmer at the coast. Some moisture begins to
return Tuesday night with PW anomalies nudging above normal by
Wednesday as high pressure remains anchored to the NE and as
another inverted trough or surface low develops off the
Southeast coast. The initial low (presently offshore) may become
tropical as it moves ENE well away from the coast with no
impact to the local area, aside from an existing elevated rip
current risk. A chance of showers returns by Wednesday
afternoon, with the highest chance from the Piedmont across s-
central VA and into NE NC. Lows Tuesday night range from the mid
60s to around 70F with highs Wednesday 80-85F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Slightly below average temperatures persist with increasing
  humidity.

- Increasing rain chances through late week into early next
  weekend as moisture returns.

Strong high pressure lingers across the New England coast and
Canadian Maritimes later this week into next weekend. Aloft, an
upper trough will settle across the Southeast as rising height
anomalies develop over QB. This type of pattern typically
results in some semblance of low pressure off the Southeast
coast, at least an inverted trough. There are some EPS 03/12z
EPS members that show tropical development, with less support
from the GEFS, aside from the 03/12z GFS. NHC has added a
hatched area for this system showing a 20% of development
through 7 days, and beyond 48 hours. Regardless of tropical
development, PW anomalies and rain chances increase later this
week into early next weekend. More humid conditions are expected
later this week into early next weekend, but high temperatures
should remain below average, with warmer overnight lows due to
more humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR through the 00z/04 TAF period. High clouds will clear out
tonight/Mon AM giving way to FEW-SCT CU Monday afternoon. The
combination of high pressure to the N and low pressure offshore
is resulting in a NE wind of ~5 kt inland and 10-15 kt near the
coast with gusts to 20 kt. The wind remains NE Monday, and will
average 5-10 kt inland/10-12 kt near the coast.

Predominantly VFR conditions prevail through the week. Low-end
chances for showers return Wed-Fri, with tstms possible during
the aftn/early evening hours Thu-Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 755 PM EDT Sunday...

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Mouth of the
  Ches Bay and the Currituck Sound into tonight and into Monday
  for the Coastal Waters due to elevated seas.

- High Risk for Rip Currents is in effect across all beaches
  through Monday.

Marine conditions are starting to gradually improve this evening.
A loosening pressure gradient across the northern waters where
high pressure is building in has allowed for winds to lighten up
to 10- 15kt. Across the southern coastal waters and lower bay,
the pressure gradient between the high to the north and low
pressure offshore to the SE has winds still a bit elevated:
15-20kt. Latest buoy obs reflect seas that were 5-7ft across
the NC coastal waters. SCAs have been cancelled for the Lower
James River and much of the Lower Bay. However, SCAs remain in
effect across the Mouth of the Ches Bay and the Currituck Sound
into tonight. SCAs remain in effect across all of the coastal
waters into Monday. Despite weakening winds, onshore flow will
help keep 5ft+ seas present into Monday. Additionally, with seas
across the NC coastal waters now below 8ft, have cancelled the
High Surf Advisory.

The general pattern keeps onshore flow in place through the week,
with strong/anomalous high pressure (>1030 mb) becoming centered
over eastern Canada Tuesday/Wednesday, and then shifting off the New
England coast late in the week. Sub-SCA conditions may be short-
lived, with an increase in onshore flow returning by midweek, along
with building seas once again.

A High Rip Current risk has been extended through Monday for all
area beaches due to onshore swell, increasing periods (~8
seconds), and elevated NE winds. Will note that a longshore
current may continue through Mon, particularly across the N
beaches as the predominant wind direction is largely parallel to
the shore. However, given that the latest model guidance has the
predominant swell direction out of the NE (due largely to the
coastal low offshore that NHC has an 80% chance for developing
into a tropical system over the next two days) and given
increasing periods, have opted to remain with a High Rip
Current risk across the N beaches through Mon. Confidence in a
High Rip Current risk is greater across the S beaches given the
wind and swell directions being the same along with 4-5 ft waves
along the coast. A High Rip Current risk across the S beaches
and a moderate across the N beaches will likely linger into Tue.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

Tidal anomalies have dropped off slightly early this morning,
generally averaging 1.0 to 1.5 ft above normal for the upper
Bay, and 1.5 to 2 ft above normal for the lower Bay and tidal
James. Currents at the mouth of the Bay have started to become
closer to neutral, with a more significant ebb tide observed
last evening into early this morning. All Coastal Flood
Advisories and Statements have ended, with no flooding for the
upcoming high tide cycle later this morning (being the lower
astronomical tide). By late today and tonight, nuisance
flooding will be possible as the higher of the astronomical tide
cycle occurs. Not anticipating any additional Advisories, but
will monitor trends over the next few hrs for the possible
issuance of a statement, primarily for the western shore of the
Bay from Windmill Pt northward and along the tidal Rappahannock
and Potomac, and possibly across the upper James. After that,
additional nuisance flooding is not expected.

A High Surf Advisory remains in effect today for Outer Banks
Currituck for nearshore waves around 8ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/KMC
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ERI
SHORT TERM...AJZ/KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ/ERI
MARINE...AC/LKB/RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...