386
FXUS61 KAKQ 280653
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
253 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure builds into the region today, before sliding
offshore late today through late week. Continued dry and very
pleasant conditions to the region are expected with below
average temperatures through the Labor Day Weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- After a cool start, decreasing clouds and continued
  mild/comfortable and dry today. Highs mainly in the upper 70s
  to low 80s. Lows tonight in the mid 50s to near 60.

Latest analysis reveals ~1026 mb sfc high pressure centered just
west of the local area. Aloft, as another upper low near James
Bay early this morning drops into northern New England, another
upper disturbance rotates through the local area at the base of
the upper trough. That feature is bringing some increasing mid
to high clouds across the piedmont early this morning. As clouds
thicken, temperatures have stabilized or even risen slightly
over the past few hours along/west of I-95. Available CAMs each
showing clouds scatter out or thin toward sunrise inland, with
temperatures falling back into the low to mid 50s. Meanwhile,
farther east, increasing clouds will bring slightly milder low
temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 along the coast.

The transient surface high builds overhead this morning, then
slides toward the coast this afternoon. Clouds once again clear
out for the afternoon in subsidence behind the departing
shortwave. High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Mixing will not quite be as efficient today, but still
expect to mix Td values back down into the upper 40s to low 50s
inland, low to mid 50s along the coast. This should yield
minimum RH values in the 30-40% range for most of the area away
from the coast.

Same setup tonight, with another weak perturbation rotating
through late and bringing some additional clouds overnight.
Light winds turn around to the S-SW tonight, which along with
the clouds should bring a milder, though still quite comfortable
night. Early morning lows in the mid 50s inland, upper 50s to
mid 60s central and east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Dry, comfortable weather with low humidity and below average
  temps are expected Friday/Friday night.

Sfc high pressure slides offshore Friday, as the upper trough
remains in place, with return flow allowing for dewpoints to
recover back into the mid 50s to around 60, still quite
comfortable by late August standards. All-around pleasant
weather continues to wrap up the work week, with highs in low-
mid 80s under a mainly sunny sky. Gradual moderation trend
continues Fri night with lows mainly in the upper 50s well
inland, with low to mid 60s for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

-  Pleasant weather persists for the late week period into the
upcoming holiday weekend.

- Comfortable temperatures and humidity levels continue, with a
mainly dry weather pattern also to persist into the Labor Day
holiday.

At the surface, the high pressure sets up just offshore to begin
the weekend. The previously referenced upper level trough
settling across New England will send a reinforcing cold front
toward the area that drops across the local area early
Saturday. The resultant cool air advection will help the provide
an additional influx of cooler/drier air over the holiday
weekend. Dry weather is expected to persist through at least
early Sunday, with highs Sat through Tues likely to remain
several degrees below normal. Look for highs remaining in the
mid 70s to around 80F. Lows should generally be in the mid 50s
inland, again cooler in typically cooler sheltered/rural
locales, with upper 50s to low 60s in the east.

At this time, the outlook looks to remain dry and pleasant for
Labor Day. A weak low will slide across the Gulf Coast this
weekend, remaining well south of the area. Meanwhile, another
cool high slides over the local area from the Ohio Valley
through Labor Day/Monday night. There is a very low end chance
for a few showers across NC Monday afternoon in association with
some weak shortwave energy embedded within the East Coast
trough, but chances remain low enough to hold out at this time,
as even the more aggressive ECMWF/EPS solutions favor keeping
the local area dry into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with rain-free
conditions expected. Cloud cover continues to increase at RIC
early this morning, and will spread east to PHF/SBY through
sunrise. No issues with flight categories expected, as CIGs look
to remain at or above FL070. Light and variable winds early this
morning become S/SW 5-10 kts from mid to late morning through
the afternoon. At ORF and PHF, the afternoon sea breeze will
likely allow winds to become more SSE.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions persists, with dry weather
through at least Saturday. Light and variable winds are
expected tonight through Fri morning, as high pressure builds
overhead. Winds turn onshore later Friday into the weekend, as
high pressure slides off the mid-Atlantic coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...

- A weak surface trough approaches from the northwest late tonight
  and a cold front crosses the waters Friday into Saturday.

- An area of low pressure likely forms offshore next week,
  potentially bringing enhanced NE winds and building seas.

1022mb high pressure is noted over the region early this morning.
Winds are generally W 5-10 kt with waves around 1 foot and seas 2
ft.

High pressure will dominate the local weather today but a weak
shortwave trough aloft will sharpen a surface trough, mainly north
of the local waters. The result will be a modest increase in SSW
winds this evening into tonight across the northern Ches Bay and
coastal waters. Latest guidance keeps sustained winds around 15 kt
with gusts to 20 kt through roughly midnight tonight before the
gradient relaxes and winds decrease. Sub-SCA W and SW flow expected
for much of Friday before swinging around to the S and SSE ahead of
an approaching cold front Friday evening. The front will cross the
waters early Saturday with winds becoming N 10-15 kt by sunrise.
Cold/dry advection look rather muted with this frontal passage so
not expecting winds to get into SCA territory but will continue to
watch this period in subsequent forecasts. High pressure builds in
for the weekend. 00z guidance is less enthused regarding coastal low
development early next week than previous forecast cycles. It does
appear that a coastal low will form but there is significant
disagreement with respect to the timing, strength, and placement of
this feature in the models. If onshore flow is able to develop and
persist next week, winds and seas will build, especially near and
south of VA Beach where NE winds and resultant seas tend to
overperform vs guidance.

Low rip risk is forecast at all area beaches today and Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AC/MAM
LONG TERM...AC/MAM
AVIATION...AC/NB
MARINE...AJZ/RHR