


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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224 FXUS61 KAKQ 041736 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 136 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry conditions are expected through Saturday as high pressure builds in from the north, with lower humidity expected. Low pressure along the Southeast coast drifts north Sunday, bringing showers and a few storms to the southern half of the area. Typical summertime conditions are expected next week, with mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms and seasonable heat and humidity. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1200 PM EDT Friday... - Dry and pleasant for the Fourth of July with lower humidity. Much drier air has arrived late this morning with dew points falling into the upper 50s and low 60s over much of the area. Have adjusted dew point grids down considerably to better match surface observations. Warm and less humid conditions persist through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening, resulting in a splendid holiday forecast. Highs this afternoon range from the mid/upper 80s to the low 90s. Satellite shows mostly clear skies across the region with some smoke noted aloft from Canadian wildfires. A few cumulus clouds are possible through the afternoon with clear skies expected tonight. Continued dry and pleasant tonight with lows falling into the low/mid 60s inland to right around 70 degrees at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Pleasant weather continues Saturday - Moisture and precip chances increase Sunday as low pressure off the Southeast coast lifts northward. Pleasant weather continues for at least the first half of the holiday weekend. Sfc high pressure slides offshore Sat while a ridge slides overhead aloft. Sat will be another day of relatively low humidity and seasonable temps with highs upper 80s. Dry weather will continue, but will see increasing cloud cover from the SE through the day. Sat night will have lows in the mid 60s inland and low 70s right at the coast. Sun will be where the pattern takes a turn back to humidity and increased precip chances. Low pressure may develop off the coast of GA/the Carolinas sometime Saturday night into Sunday. However, there is still uncertainty on how strong of a low it will be and where it goes from there. Will note that the NHC does have a 50% chance of cyclone formation in 48 hours on it. What is consistent between the models, though, is that the only real impact from this potential system here locally is increased humidity and rain chances with the SE flow N of the low. On Sunday, storm chances are generally confined S of I-64 (30-60%, highest S), but could see some isolated activity to the N. Showers/storms may continue overnight but with less coverage. Rain chances continue into Mon with Chc PoPs near the coast in the morning, then spreading across the area in the afternoon. Highest coverage will likely be in the SE. The good news is that highs will stay in the upper 80s, so we at least won`t be dealing with high heat indices despite dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Becoming increasingly hot and humid by next week with afternoon/evening storm chances. The pattern looks to be unsettled for the rest of next week as the coastal low finally pushes NE. Also, a cold front from the Great Lakes looks to stall out near or over the FA. The result will be will be weather pretty typical for July with highs in the low 90s and diurnal chances for thunderstorms. Lows each night will be in the low to mid 70s. Humidity continues as well, but heat indices should stay at or under 103F. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 135 PM EDT Friday... VFR prevails through the 12z TAF period. Mostly clear skies for the rest of the day, except some higher clouds over far srn VA and NE NC, and some FEW-SCT CU near SBY. N winds inland with E-NE winds near the coast due to the diurnal sea breeze. Speeds are generally 5-10 kt. Light/calm winds tonight, increasing again out of the E-NE early Saturday morning. There is also a low probability for patchy ground fog. Mainly SKC again Saturday. Outlook: Prevailing VFR through at least Saturday as drier air remains over the region. A few showers/tstms are possible by Sunday, mainly south, and all areas Monday and Tuesday. MVFR CIGs are also possible (especially S) by Sunday- Monday. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA/benign conditions through Sunday morning. - Low pressure south of the area could bring elevated southeast winds late Sunday into Monday. A cold front is crossing the waters early this morning...and will move south of the area by midday. Winds are still SW at 5-10 kt with 2 ft seas/1-2 ft waves. However, expect winds to become NNE at 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt following the FROPA. Could even see a few gusts above 20 kt in the lower bay and SE VA coastal waters. The highest winds are expected to occur between 5 AM-noon before gradually diminishing to 5-10 kt by this evening. Seas will increase to ~3 ft with a brief period of 2-3 ft waves possible on the bay. High pressure settles N of the area later today into Saturday with E- NE winds of 5-10 kt expected tonight, becoming E-ESE and increasing to 10-15 kt by Saturday afternoon. Seas average ~2 ft. Uncertainty increases by the very end of the weekend as a subtropical area of low pressure takes shape off the SC/GA coast before potentially approaching the area late Sunday or Monday. NHC still has a medium (60%) probability of tropical or subtropical development at some point with this system. The current forecast shows SSE winds increasing to around 15 kt Sunday afternoon and remaining near 15 kt through Monday. Winds are forecast to become S and diminish Monday night/Tue as the low slowly exits. While it is too early to pin down specifics, a short period of SCAs is possible late Sun-Mon (although prevailing sub-SCA conditions are likely for at least part of that time). Variable marine conditions return toward the middle of next week with afternoon sea breezes and diurnal shower/storm activity. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RHR NEAR TERM...RHR SHORT TERM...AC LONG TERM...AC AVIATION...SW MARINE...ERI