188
FXUS61 KAKQ 030732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
332 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the coast gradually settles south into the
western Atlantic through late this week. Seasonally hot but
remaining dry today. Heat and humidity build over the region
from Independence Day through early next week. Daily chances of
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms also
return from Independence Day into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

- Key Message: Seasonally warm and dry with slightly more humid
  conditions today.

Latest analysis reveals 1024mb surface high pressure just off
the northeast/northern mid-Atlantic coast. Aloft, light NNW flow
persists as a ~595 dam mid-level ridge continues to build over
the gulf coast into the eastern Great Lakes as an upper trough
pushes farther offshore.

A mostly clear sky across the region this morning aside from
some scattered stratocu which has drifted south across the I-95
corridor early this morning. Farther east, some spotty low
stratus and patchy ground fog has developed along the coastal
plain. We`ll see some pockets of patchy fog through just after
sunrise, clearing by mid-morning.

Surface high pressure offshore continues to gradually build down
the east coast today into tonight, as the upper level ridge axis
builds into the northeast. Mostly sunny and remaining dry today.
High temperatures will return to near seasonal averages ranging
from around 80F/lower 80s along the coast (with ESE flow) to
the mid/upper 80s inland where winds will begin the day E-SE,
but will veer around to the south, with slightly but noticeably
more humid conditions by mid-afternoon/early evening.

Mostly clear and dry tonight. Return flow will make for a milder
and more humid night as high pressure settles in the  Bermuda
Ridge position in the western Atlantic. Look for early morning
low temperatures to range from the mid 60s to around 70F, with
some patchy low stratus/ground fog once again toward Thu morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid conditions return for Thursday and Friday.

- Rain chances return to the forecast for the afternoon into the
  evening on Independence Day and again on Friday. Best rain
  chances remain W-NW of the Richmond Metro area into the VA
  Piedmont.

Hotter and more humid conditions for Independence Day, courtesy
of increasing SSW flow with high pressure becoming anchored off
the SE coast. High temperatures range from the upper 80s/lower
90s along the coast, to the mid 90s inland. Continue to undercut
the very moist NBM dewpoint numbers, but nonetheless more humid
Thu, with PWs to climb to ~2.00 by Thursday night. Forecast
dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70F during peak heating
result in heat indices well into the upper 90s to lower 100s.

There is a potential for widely scattered showers/tstms developing
along pre-frontal/lee trough Thursday afternoon and evening.
Rain chances are generally 20-40% for mainly late aftn/evening
tstms (highest PoPs NW of a Farmville- Richmond- Ocean City MD
line). A convective Marginal Risk remains in place from the SPC,
with gusty winds from wet microbursts the main hazard. Partly
cloudy, warm and muggy/humid Thursday night with lows in the
low- mid 70s.

PWs trend up further for Friday, reaching 2-2.25" by Friday
morning (*near daily max value). Forecast highs Friday are
similar to Thursday. However, it will be a bit more humid and
with dewpoints slightly higher, heat indices at or above 105F
are looking increasingly likely for central and SE VA and into
NE NC. There is another chance of afternoon showers/tstms
Friday along the lee trough lingering over the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

- Key Message: Heat and humidity linger for Saturday into the
  first part of next week. Remaining a bit unsettled with a
  chance for mainly late day and evening showers and storms each
  day.

The upper ridge will initially be positioned from the Gulf
coast to the Carolinas to begin the forecast period Friday
night, before it slowly shifts E off the SE coast while slowly
weakening. This will serve to pump hot and humid air back into
the mid- Atlantic region over the weekend, while also keeping a
series of upper troughs blocked well off to our NW through the
weekend (over the upper midwest/northern Great Lakes). Rather
weak steering flow at the sfc with high pressure offshore will
be conducive to a general S-SW low level flow, but with some
afternoon seabreeze development possible.

Overall, highs look to average in the mid-upper 90s inland, and
90- 95F closer to the coast Saturday, and perhaps a few degrees
lower Sunday through Tuesday as a weakening cold front pushes
toward the region, likely to ultimately stall/wash out in the
vicinity of the local area. Have remained a little below the
typical high bias shown by NBM dewpoints, but still expect them
to be back in the low- mid 70s for the period, which would yield
heat indices in the 103-108F range Saturday and in the 100-105
range on Sunday through Tuesday. As for PoPs, expect daily
chances for isolated/sctd mainly aftn/evening tstms (PoPs
20-40%), with the best chance in the piedmont and perhaps aided
by the seabreeze, with mainly diurnally-driven timing favored at
this time range as a result.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure is centered just off the New England/northeast
coast to begin the 06z/3 TAF period. This is resulting in
onshore flow with generally an E to ESE wind of 5-10 KT. VFR at
all the terminals, though some scattered SC have pushed in from
the NW and will push across the VA piedmont this morning. Winds
become calm to very light out of the SE early this morning, with
predominate VFR conditions for most. However, guidance continues
to show the potential for IFR vsby at SBY after midnight. Will
go with prevailing IFR vsby from 08-12z for SBY. There could
also be some low stratus accompanying the fog which temporarily
diminishes VIS < 1SM. Additionally, some shallow ground fog is
possible at PHF and points just W/SW and perhaps ECG with the
potential for brief vsby restrictions. Will include an MVFR
tempo IFR group at PHF and tempo MVFR at ECG, where climatology
suggests more fog than guidance typically shows. Becoming VFR
by mid-morning through this evening for all terminals. The high
shifts off the coast through the day today, with winds becoming
S inland and E to SE along the coast with speeds of 7-10kt.

Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail most of the time Wednesday
night through Sunday. There is a potential for additional early
morning shallow ground fog/low stratus as low-level moisture
increases. This will also lead to a chc for aftn/evening
showers/tstms as a slow moving boundary approaches from the NW
Thursday/Friday and gradually weakens as it crosses into the
region over the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key messages:

- South winds increase to 15-20 kt across the upper Chesapeake Bay
  tonight with Small Craft Advisories in effect.

- Small Craft Advisories are likely to be needed Thursday
  afternoon into Thursday evening for the Chesapeake Bay and the
  Virginia coastal waters.

- A period of elevated, diurnally-driven southerly winds is
  possible Friday and Saturday with Small Craft Advisory
  conditions possible.

A ~1024mb high pressure was located over the Mid Atlantic coast this
morning. This high gradually shifts E through late week. Winds were
generally SE 5-10 kt across the Ches Bay and E across the coastal
waters. Waves and seas were generally 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft
respectively. Winds become SE 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this
afternoon across the bay, remaining 5-10 kt across the coastal
waters. Winds become S 15-20 kt across the upper bay this evening
into early tonight. For the rest of the bay, 10-15 kt with gusts up
to 20 kt are possible. Wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds have
increased to ~45% across the upper bay with a wide range of 10-40%
across the middle bay. As such, SCAs are now in effect from 10 PM to
4 AM for the upper bay. May need to expand SCAs S to the middle bay,
however, confidence is too low at this time. In addition to the
winds, waves build to 2-3 ft across the bay this evening (highest
across the upper bay).

Winds become SE/S 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the Ches
Bay and VA coastal waters Thu afternoon, becoming S Thu evening.
SCAs will likely be needed for this surge with wind probs of 70-85%
across the middle and lower bay and 40-50% across the upper bay for
18 kt sustained winds. Wind probs for 25 kt gusts have increased to
40-50% across the Ches Bay and 50-65% for the VA coastal waters.
Waves and seas build to 2-4 ft and 4-5 ft respectively for this
surge as well. Winds diminish to 10-15 kt Thu night. A period of
diurnally driven elevated afternoon/evening S winds is likely to
continue Fri and Sat. Each day, S winds increase to 15-20 kt with
gusts up to 25 kt (mainly across the coastal waters). As such, SCAs
may be needed for either/both days. Winds diminish Sun into early
next week. Additionally, daily chances for afternoon/evening storms
are possible from Thu into early next week.

There is a moderate rip risk on today due to favorable swell and
wind direction orthogonal to the coastline and 2-3 ft waves.
However, will note that conditions look to rapidly change late this
afternoon into this evening as the dominant period increases from 7
seconds to 15 seconds amidst orthogonal swell direction and waves
building to 2-3 ft. This may allow for an abrupt change in the rip
risk from moderate to high. The main limiting factor is the tide
timing with the afternoon high tide occuring at 6:28 PM at the Ocean
City Pier and 7:16 PM at Ocean City Inlet. This means that tides
will likely be rising for most of the afternoon, potentially
mitigating the rip risk. That being said, about an hour after high
tide the rip risk may increase rapidly for the last hour or two of
the day. Given the uncertainty, have maintained a moderate rip risk
and will let the day shift analyze trends in the conditions to
determine if an upgrade to high rip risk is warranted. On Thu, wind
direction will be out of the S with a bit less of a shore normal
component to the swell direction. That being said, periods of 12-14
seconds across the N beaches (7-8 seconds across the S beaches) and
waves of 3-4 ft will allow for a moderate rip risk across all area
beaches. Once again, there is a potential for an upgrade to a high
rip risk across the N beaches given higher wave heights and a higher
period swell.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures for Thu-Sat (July 4-6)

        7/4          7/5       7/6
RIC   100/2002    102/2012   105/1977
ORF    98/1997     98/2012   102/1881
SBY   100/1919    102/2012   102/2010
ECG   100/1997    100/2012    99/2012


Record high minimum temperatures Thu-Sat (July 4-6)

         7/4         7/5       7/6
RIC    77/1900     79/2012    80/2012
ORF    79/2012     80/1999    80/1999
SBY    78/2012     81/2012    77/2012
ECG    78/2012     77/2018    78/1999

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...RMM
CLIMATE...AKQ