745
FXUS61 KAKQ 181029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
629 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front drops south into the region today and lingers
across the area into mid-week. The front finally crosses the
area Wednesday with below average temperatures expected later
this week. Hurricane Erin will make its closest approach by
Wednesday and Thursday. Impacts will be felt well outside the
forecast cone including large waves, dangerous rip currents, and
the potential for breezy conditions along the coast and over
the coastal waters.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 340 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front drops into the area today bringing unsettled
  conditions with afternoon and early evening showers and
  thunderstorms.

- Locally heavy rainfall is possible across Southeast Virginia
  and Northeast North Carolina.

GOES water vapor channels depict an upper ridge over the
Southeast and Midwest, with a trough digging across the
Northeast. At the surface, a cold front extends from southern PA
into central NJ, with a pre-frontal surface trough over the
VA/NC Piedmont. A line of showers/tstms moved S through central
VA late last evening and into the early overnight hours, and
still lingers over s-central VA early this morning, but it is
gradually weakening. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy warm and
humid with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.

The cold front drops into a stalls over the region today.
Moisture and instability pool in vicinity of the boundary,
especially over eastern VA and NE NC where PW values are
expected to be ~2.0". Showers/tstms (mainly showers N with more
stability) are expected to develop this afternoon, primarily
along and E of the I-95 corridor. The 18/00z HREF has a decent
signal for excessive rainfall across SE VA and NE NC with a
30-50% chc of 3"/3hr in the 18-21z (2-5PM) and 21-00z (5-8PM)
periods. Clouds and onshore flow will keep highs in the upper
70s to around 80F (a notable change from the lower/mid 90s
yesterday) with mid 80s to near 90F from southern VA into NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front lingers over the area Tuesday with unsettled
  conditions continuing.

- The boundary weakens by Wednesday with diminished rainfall
  chances.

The front remains stalled over the region tonight into Tuesday.
Showers and a few tstms linger into this evening, mainly E with
PoPs diminishing to 20% or less overnight. Lows tonight will
mainly be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. PoPs for showers N and
showers/tstms S will be 20-40% Tuesday with the boundary
lingering over the area. Overall, showers/tstms should have less
coverage and organization Tuesday as the upper ridge builds
back in from the W. Clouds and onshore flow will result in highs
in the mid to upper 70s N, with lower/mid 80s S and SE on the
warm side of the front.

Hurricane Erin is forecast to be tracking N well off the
Southeast coast by Wednesday. Meanwhile, some semblance of a
front will linger over the area. However, there is not much
upper support with general subsidence ahead of Erin, so PoPs are
only 20% Wednesday afternoon. Forecast highs Wednesday are in
the lower/mid 80s, after morning lows in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Hurricane Erin is likely to stay well offshore of the local
  area as it makes its closest approach Wednesday night into
  Thursday. However, impacts will happen well outside of the
  forecast cone, with large waves, strong rip currents, coastal
  flooding, and breezy conditions along the coast all possible.

- Below average temperatures and drier conditions are expected
  to arrive later in the week.

The main focus for mid to late week will be Hurricane Erin. The
general 18/00z ensemble/model consensus continues to show the
core of system recurving well offshore away from our area. This
is thanks to the amplification of a trough to our north by mid-
week which will shunt the upper ridge back to the west. As this
trough drops southward, it will create a weakness in the flow
aloft and steer Erin towards the north then northeast. However,
the general wind field associated with Erin will substantially
broaden Wednesday night into Thursday as it moves into the mid-
latitudes and interacts with high pressure and drier air over
New England and Atlantic Canada. Therefore, impacts from this
storm will occur well away from the center due to an expanding
storm/wind-field as it moves north into higher latitudes. The
main threats are still for large waves, dangerous rip currents,
and coastal flooding (see more details below), but we may also
see a period of breezy conditions wind gusts to near tropical
storm force along the immediate coast (especially south of
Virginia Beach) later Wednesday into Thursday. In addition, it
is possible some outer rain bands may clip far southeastern
portions of the area, potentially bringing localized areas of
heavy rain or stronger winds. Continue to monitor the latest
from NHC in regards to Hurricane Erin.

Otherwise, a stronger cold front crosses the area later
Wednesday into Thursday (helping to push Erin out to sea).
Cooler/more comfortable weather later in the week with highs in
the upper 70s to mid 80s and dewpoints in the 60s. Shower
chances are mainly 20-30% Thursday with dry condition by Friday.
Temperatures moderate back toward seasonal averages next
weekend with shower/tstm chances returning later in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Monday...

Primarily VFR under a partly cloudy to mostly clear sky early
this morning. A backdoor cold front drops in from the NE later
this morning with MVFR cigs developing at RIC and SBY ~13z.
MVFR cigs develop at ORF and PHF during the aftn, with a lesser
chc and not until after 00z at ECG. Scattered showers/tstms
develop in vicinity of the front during the aftn. Brief vsby
restrictions are likely if heavy rain directly impacts a given
terminal. The wind will shift to NE 8-12kt behind the front.
High pressure builds across New England tonight. The will result
in continued NE flow with MVFR cigs falling to IFR at RIC, SBY,
and PHF.

Sub-VFR CIGs linger into Tuesday morning due to continued
onshore flow. In addition, passing afternoon showers or
thunderstorms may also result in sub-VFR conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday. High pressure builds in from the N later in the week
as Hurricane Erin tracks N then NE well off the coast.
Occasional showers and locally breezy conditions are possible
along the coast Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the coastal waters
  this afternoon/early Tuesday morning due to increasing
  northeasterly winds and building seas behind a back door cold
  front.

- High risk of rip currents this afternoon at all beaches as
  seas build with stronger onshore flow behind the cold front.
  Dangerous rip currents are likely with Hurricane Erin through
  the majority of the week and possibly into the weekend.

- Rapidly building seas and increasing winds are Wednesday
  through Thursday as Hurricane Erin makes its closest approach.

Surface analysis shows a weak pressure gradient across the
region, resulting in generally light to gentle southwest to west
winds this morning. Waves in the Bay are around 1 ft, with seas
of 2-4 ft in the Ocean. A front is draped just north of the
area across the Ohio River Valley.

This weak backdoor front will slowly start to move across the
area today and tonight. Winds will gradually shift to the north
then northeast during the day. The front will likely lose its
forcing before moving through the entire FA, which should keep
winds just below SCA criteria at 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in
the coastal waters. In the Ches. Bay, winds will reach 10-15 kt
with gusts up to 20 kt. There is a chance that portions of the
Bay could briefly reach SCA conditions, but confidence in this
is low so have held off on issuing any Advisories for now. If
winds overperform, a Small Craft Advisory for the Bay may be
required. The stronger NE winds behind the front will result in
seas building to 5-7 ft (2-4 ft in the Bay) this afternoon and
Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for this
afternoon starting in the northern waters and expanding through
the southern waters early Tuesday morning as the front moves
south. This will be the start of an extended period of elevated
seas.

Hurricane Erin is currently moving NW and is located roughly
110 miles NE of Grand Turk Island this morning. The current
forecast continues on track with Erin turning far enough north
passing between the coast and Bermuda, remaining offshore the US
coast. The the gradient between the high to the NE and
Hurricane Erin will cause NE winds to remain elevated on Tuesday
behind the front. The wind field of Hurricane Erin is forecast
to become quite expansive over the next few days as the storm
gains latitude. As Erin shifts further north offshore, the
increased pressure gradient will be the strongest mid to late
this week with SCA winds expected Wednesday night through at
least late Thursday. Sustained winds of 25-30 kts with gusts of
up to 35 kts are forecast at this time. The main threat from
Erin will be the large waves. Seas will rapidly build Wednesday
night/Thursday morning, peaking at 8-13 ft (4-6 ft in the Ches.
Bay). Waves greater than 5 ft will likely linger through the
week in the coastal waters.

As wave heights begin to increase today, combined with long
period shore normal swell, the rip current risk will become high
at all beaches. A high rip current risk is expected to continue
through the week large long period swell (12-16s) arrives ahead
of Hurricane Erin and as the storm passes by well to the east.
The continuation of high rip current risks is through the
weekend is likely.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 340 AM EDT Monday...

As Hurricane Erin approaches the offshore, strong NE winds will
help funnel water into the Ches. Bay. Minor tidal flooding is
possible with the high tide as early as Monday night/Tuesday
morning on the west side of the bay. Once Erin approaches closer
offshore mid week, minor to moderate flooding is likely for
most gauges.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ650.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJB/AJZ
LONG TERM...AJB/AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...KMC/NB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...