448
FXUS61 KAKQ 181922
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
322 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and much warmer conditions expected Saturday. A front
potentially dips into the region on Sunday before lifting back
northward on Monday. Rain chances hold off until next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and mild night with lows in the lower 60s.

- Above average temperatures return Saturday with highs in the upper
80s.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a strong 500mb ridge moving over
much of the Mid-Atlantic and trough digging in across the four
corners. At the surface, a broad low pressure system is tracking
across the Great Lakes region and a 1030mb high pressure lingering
off the east coast. Over the past couple of hours S to SSW winds
have begun to increase as the pressure gradient from these systems
tighten with wind gusts upwards of 25 mph. Temperatures as of 2 PM
are ranging between the lower 60s to lower 70s across the Eastern
Shore, lower 70s across the coast, and middle to upper 70s inland.
Skies remain relatively clear with some high cirrus moving across
the eastern shore and some small fair weather cumulus developing
across NE NC and SE VA.

Winds will lighten a bit tonight but there will still be gusts
upwards of 15 mph as the pressure gradient remains in place. Skies
will remain mostly clear as some additional high level clouds move
through the area. Temperatures tonight will remain mild as warm air
will continue to advect into the area. Lows for the night will be in
the lower 60s. Saturday the high pressure will move further off
shore but the pressure gradient will re-tighten ahead of an
approaching cold front. Ahead of this front temperatures will warm
up above average with highs in the middle to upper 80s. There is the
potentials of some isolated 90 degree temperatures across the SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A backdoor front drops south and west Sunday leading to a wide
range of temps across the area.

- Dry weather continues through Monday.

Ahead of the backdoor cold front temperatures Saturday night will
continue to be mild with lows reaching down into the lower to middle
60s. The backdoor cold front will eventually make it to our area by
Sunday. There continues to remain some uncertainty on how far the
front will advance. Regardless of the details, it will be cooler
across the NE portions of the area and warmer SW. With some of the
latest guidance that has come in temperatures across the coast are
expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. While further inland
and across the south temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s and possibly middle 80s further south and west. Temperatures
Sunday night will be slightly cooler especially across the Eastern
shore with their lows in the lower 50s. While across VA/NC lows will
be in the middle to upper 50s. The stalled front over the are will
lift Monday and warmer temperatures will return for most of the
area, except possibly the Maryland Eastern Shore. Highs Monday will
be in the lower to middle 80s across VA/NC and lower 70s across the
northern Neck and Eastern SHore. There is also the possibility of
upper 60s as highs across the Eastern Shore, However, confidence is
low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Above average temperatures with possible afternoon and evening
showers.

Upper air ridging will set up over Florida, while surface low
pressure will move northeastward from the Central Plains early next
week. The cold front associated with this low pressure system will
pass through the region late Monday/early Tuesday. This front will
be relatively weak, but could bring a few showers as early as Monday
evening to the northern half of the CWA, with the higher PoPs (still
only 30-45%) for the majority of the area on Tuesday. The front will
stall over the Carolinas resulting in chance of showers and isolated
storms Wednesday for the southern half of the CWA.

Above average temperatures will continue, despite the weak cold
front. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s (cooler on the
Eastern Shore) with lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1250 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 18z TAF period at all
terminals. Some SCT/BKN cirrus is noted on satellite imagery
streaming in from the NW. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly
clear through this evening and into tonight. Generally S or SSW
10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt through this evening and into
tonight. Guidance shows the potential for widespread LLWS across
the region tonight, as a LLJ strengthen to 50 kt. Confidence
has increased to put LLWS across all TAF sites from 19/01z to
19/12z.

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions continue into the weekend. The next
shot at widespread precipitation looks to be early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Southerly winds increase through this evening, and remain elevated
through Saturday. SCAs are in effect for much of the marine area.

Latest analysis reveals broad 1025+mb high pressure lingering
offshore of the mid-Atlantic/Carolina this afternoon. To the
northwest, deepening low pressure was sliding east across the upper
Great Lakes, with its associated cold front draped across the mid MS
Valley. The preceding warm front continues to lift north across the
mid-Atlantic region as of this writing, with the tightening pressure
gradient out ahead of the Great Lakes low allowing for increasingly
gusty SSE winds averaging 10-15 kt, with gusts to 20 kt already
being observed in the lower Bay. Expect gusts to slowly
increase in the bay, gradually turning SSW late this evening.
Less efficient mixing due to cool SSTs will be balanced by
channeling over the bay and lower James River. Expect SW winds
15-20 kt overnight with gusts generally to 25 kt, but up to 30
kt where gradient is tightest across the northern coastal
waters.

SCAs have been added for the Sound and Rappahannock Rivers to
existing SCA over the Bay and lower rivers and go into effect
this afternoon into this evening. Confidence in seeing sustained
SCA conditions is still lower for the southern coastal waters
where the pressure gradient will not be as strong. Waves in the
bay will build to 2-3 ft later today, with SSE wind wave also
allowing seas to increase during this period with 2-4 ft
expected south of Cape Charles Light and 4-5 ft to the north.

Looking ahead, the cold front will struggle to make much
progress into the local waters late Saturday into early Sunday
as the pressure gradient relaxes, but 12z guidance is coming
into better agreement that the mainly dry frontal boundary does
finally (slowly) drop south through Sunday. Could see a bit of a
surge as this occurs, but for now the surge looks to be sub-
SCA, as the front gradually weakens as it drops across the area.
Nonetheless, expect winds quickly veer from SSW to NE ~10-15 kt
Sunday into Sunday aftn, then gradually shifting back to the
SSE Monday with another warm front lifting through the region. A
trailing cold front then approaches from the west, slowly
crossing into the region late Monday into Tuesday, with SCA
headlines potentially being needed over the Bay late Monday. The
weak front then meanders across region Tuesday night through
the middle of next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/RHR
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET/RHR
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...HET/RHR
MARINE...LKB/MAM