640
FXUS61 KAKQ 090905
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
405 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected through early Sunday. Rain showers are
likely Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon, though aerial
rain totals remain light. Mainly and seasonable weather is
expected for most of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Gusty winds up to 20-25 mph possible through the late morning
  today.

- A brief period of increased fire danger is possible on the MD
  Eastern Shore in the late morning and early afternoon.

- Cooler temps and dry.

A reinforcing cold front is dropping through the region this
morning, bringing a wind shift to the N and markedly cooler/drier
air. Skies are mainly clear outside passing high clouds. Temps
actually increased a few degrees as the front came through, likely
re-mixing the shallow inversion that developed after sunset late
Friday. Still, temps should gradually fall post-FROPA over the next
few hours and lows this morning will be much cooler and in the mid
40s away from the coast (lower 50s persist near the water).

For the daylight hours of today, wind gusts up to 20 mph are
possible through late morning, with up to 25 mph along the coast.
Winds diminish in the afternoon as sfc high pressure ridges down
from the north. Mainly clear skies continue with again just some
passing high clouds from the west. Highs will be noticeably cooler
and in the lower 60s. Winds decouple away from the coast tonight so
lows drop into the mid-upper 30s inland. At the coast, a light
onshore wind keeps temps in the low-mid 40s. With the dry airmass,
not anticipating any frost at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- Scattered to numerous (mainly light) showers are likely later
  Sunday through the first part of Monday. Rain totals generally
  look to stay below 0.25".

- Drier and mild Monday.

A rather weak cold front will advance eastward through the MS and OH
River Valleys Sunday. Aloft, a shortwave tracks ENE from the upper
Midwest states into the Great Lakes and eventually New England. This
system will bring the potential for showers for most of the area
from later Sunday through the first part of Monday. With the primary
upper disturbance/vort max tracking well N of the area, we are not
expecting much in the way of significant and/or beneficial rainfall.
Still, scattered to numerous showers are likely in the region of
broad synoptic ascent downstream of the upper trough axis,
especially Sunday night. Rainfall coverage doesn`t look as
widespread as it did the previous few days so cut back on the PoPs
some to 50-70%. Showers linger into Monday across the SE half of the
area and have maintained chance PoPs through most of the day here.
Again, rainfall totals look very unimpressive and generally are
expected to be 0.25" or less. Highs Sunday will range from around 60
across the NW to around 70 across the SE, with mid 60s in between.
With any appreciable cold advection delayed until behind the front
Monday night, highs Monday rebound to mild levels in SW flow and
currently look to be in the mid 70s areawide. Lows Sunday and Monday
night in the mid-upper 50s and mid 40s-mid 50s (coolest Piedmont and
MD Eastern Shore), respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonable temperatures and mainly dry through most of next
  week.

- Rain chances have trended lower Thursday.

High pressure builds to our north for the middle of next week,
keeping dry and mostly sunny conditions in place. Highs in the mid-
upper 60s Tuesday and low-mid 60s Wednesday. Lows in the upper 30s-
mid 40s Tuesday night and low-mid 40s Wednesday night.

There still looks to be a potent upper trough that will dive out of
Canada and the upper Midwest later Wednesday. At the sfc, a cold
front will also move eastward toward the area. However, trends in
the guidance have been for the trough to be less amplified and
positively tilted, instead of the neutral tilt they showed
yesterday. Thus, rain chances look less and most guidance keeps most
of the precip confined to the Mason-Dixon line and points N. Will
maintain chance PoPs early Thursday for one more cycle in case the
guidance flips again, but not looking like much, if any, precip at
this time. Thus, expecting ongoing drought conditions to expand and
intensify further.

A tad milder Thursday ahead of the front with highs in the mid-upper
60s. Seasonable highs in the 60s continue Friday into the weekend.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s, with some upper 30s
possible in the cooler spots.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 AM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions are expected through the 06z TAF period. Outside
of SCT mid-level clouds over NE NC, the only cloud cover is
FEW-SCT high-level clouds. A cold front is in the process of
dropping through the area, which is bringing a wind shift to
the N. Winds will average around 10 kt through early this
morning, increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after
sunrise and through the early afternoon. ORF could gust up to 25
kt. Winds slowly diminish later this afternoon and especially
this evening and tonight. A mainly clear sky is expected today,
outside of a few high clouds.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions are expected to persist
through early Sunday afternoon. Another frontal system
approaches the region Sun, with increasing clouds Sunday
afternoon and night. A chance for showers develops by late Sun
afternoon and continues Sunday night into Mon morning. Degraded
flight conditions are possible Sunday night into Monday, before
another frontal passage Monday brings clearing later Monday
through the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft headlines remain in effect for all area waters
  today.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible across the
  northern waters Sunday night into early Monday as high
  pressure moves offshore.

- A series of cold fronts will bring the potential for
  additional Small Craft flags next week.

A cold front has pushed S of the Albemarle Sound early this
morning. The wind is N 20-25kt with gusts ~30kt over the ocean
and Ches. Bay, and 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt over the rivers
and Currituck Sound. Seas are beginning to respond and should
build to 4- 6ft N to 5-7ft S this morning, with waves in the
Ches. Bay building to 3-4ft. SCAs remain in effect for the
entire marine area, and continue through 1 PM for the Ches. Bay
and rivers, 4 PM for the Currituck Sound and ocean N of Cape
Charles, and 7 PM for the ocean S of Cape Charles. The SCA for
the ocean off of the Currituck Outer Banks may need to be
extended into tonight as seas will be slow to subside.

Otherwise, the wind diminishes and becomes E tonight as high
pressure slides across the NJ coast. The wind becomes S 10-15kt
Sunday as high pressure moves offshore, and then becomes SW
10-15kt S to 15-20kt N (potentially 20-25kt offshore N of
Chincoteague) Sunday night/early Monday morning, before becoming
W 10-15kt Monday aftn. Marginal SCA conditions are possible for
the middle Ches. Bay and northern ocean zones Sunday night.
Another cold front crosses the region Tuesday as high pressure
builds N of the region through midweek. This will bring the
potential for another round of SCA conditions in the subsequent
CAA surge later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Yet another cold
front crosses the coast in the Thursday/Thursday night time
frame. Seas subside to 2-3ft N to 3-4ft S late tonight and then
mainly settle to 2-3ft Sunday. Seas build to 3-4ft Sunday night
into early Monday, and may reach 4-5ft offshore N of
Chincoteague late Sunday night/early Monday. Seas subside to 2-
3ft by Monday night, and then build to 3-5ft later Tuesday into
Tuesday night following the cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 405 AM EST Saturday...

Gusty winds of 20-25 mph are possible this morning through the
early afternoon today behind a dry cold front. Additionally,
relative humidities drop to 25-35% for most of the area by this
afternoon, with RHs as low as 20% on the MD Eastern Shore. The
best overlap of gusty winds/low RH is on the MD Eastern Shore
and have issued an Increased Fire Danger Statement/SPS for these
locations. Elsewhere over our VA counties, the overlap looks to
be too brief for an IFD at this time. Winds diminish later this
afternoon. Winds diminish later this afternoon, ending the fire
danger threat.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 9 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this
     afternoon for MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633-
     650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ
FIRE WEATHER...