292
FXUS61 KAKQ 112357
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
757 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low tracks north toward the area this afternoon into
tonight, passing nearby Sunday, and lingering offshore into
Monday. Heavy rain, windy conditions, and coastal flood impacts
are likely near the coast tonight and Sunday. The low moves away
by Tuesday as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. Dry
and seasonable weather returns and prevails for the middle and
end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 735 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- A coastal storm impacts the region tonight into Sunday,
  bringing moderate to locally heavy rainfall, strong winds, and
  moderate to major tidal flooding. Impacts will be greatest at
  the immediate coast from late tonight through midday Sunday.

Aloft, an upper level trough was located across the Southeast
this evening with an upper level low moving into interior New
England. At the surface, high pressure was located offshore of
New England with a surface low developing off the Southeast
coast. This low is expected to strengthen as it slowly lifts
north tonight into early Sunday. Light rain has already moved
into far SE VA/NE NC this evening and will continue to spread
inland and north through the night. Given the widespread cloud
cover, lows tonight in the low-mid 60s for most (upper 50s
across the far NW) are expected.

The majority of impacts from the coastal storm will occur
tonight into Sunday. The low coastal will continue to
strengthen off the coast of the Carolinas and advance northward
toward the southern NC coastline. Model guidance since this
mornings update has come into a better agreement. However, there
still remains some uncertainty. There are still two different
solutions that could potentially happen. The first solution
would be the coastal low would continue to strengthen and move
inland somewhere along the SE NC coastline. While the second
scenario would be the low will occlude causing an additional low
to form north off the coast of southern NE. This would create a
bifurcated feature taking over by later Sunday and Monday. The
first solution would be more impactful for our coastal
area(especially in the wind and coastal flooding department).
While the second solution would be impactful further north
across NJ stretching into southern NE. Will note that the first
solution does have better agreement from the models and
ensembles. Not much has changed with the total QPF from this
coastal low. Models continue to bring moderate to heavy rainfall
primarily east of the I-95 corridor. Rain amounts across the
east would be between 1-2" While west of I-95 places could see
around an inch or less. Latest Hi-res guidance does continue to
have some heavier showers moving across SE VA/NE NC causing some
isolated totals of 2-4". Will note that the High- res could be
a tad bit aggressive but cannot rule out these possible higher
totals. Nonetheless these rains will occur just before or around
peak high tide across the coastal area. The high tide mix with
the heaviest rainfall will potentially cause additional
flooding.

Winds will continue to increase this evening with the highest winds
expected later tonight into tomorrow morning across NE NC/SE VA,
shifting further north across the atlantic side of the VA/MD Eastern
Shore by mid Sunday morning. Winds across NC coast, portions of the
Northern Neck, and inland Worcester county will be between 25 to
35mph with gusts between 45 to 50 mph. Wind advisories will remain
in effect for these areas. While across across VB, VA Eastern Shore
and, the coastal beaches of Worcester county winds will be between
30 to 40mph with gusts upwards of 55mph. With the highest confidence
of these areas seeing 55mph wind gusts High Wind Warnings have been
issued. Overall, these winds could potentially cause tree and
powerlines damage across the warned areas.

Rain lingers through the rest of Sunday as the large low feature
remains near the area, though the rain intensity should really drop
off by the later afternoon and evening. The winds will also slowly
subside, but remaining breezy to windy near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Coastal low lingers offshore Monday continuing chances for
  rain and breezy conditions.

- Drier conditions return Tuesday as the low finally exits Tuesday.

A additional upper level low is expected to be across portions of NE
and will interact with the upper low/trough across the SE US. This
will allow for a stagnant pattern and will allow the low to linger
across just off shore. This will allow for breezy and wet weather
conditions to continue along the coast. While most of the area will
remain dry the highest concentration of Pops are across the VA/MD
Eastern with Pops between 35 to 45%. Not much QPF is expected Monday
with totals less than .25" across the MD/VA Eastern Shore. Highs
Monday will be in the middle to upper 60s. By Tuesday an upper
trough comes out of Canada and finally starts to move the system out
of the area. While at the surface the area will be behind the
coastal low and much drier air will be over the area. This will
allow for partly cloudy skies and temperatures will be allowed to
warm up into the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Dry and seasonable weather returns to the area by the end of
  next week.

The overall Synoptic pattern going into next week is very optimal
for dry and seasonable weather to return to the area. A tall ridge
will be centered over the portions of the Great Lakes region with a
trough located just off the NE Coast. This pattern favors sfc high
pressure N and NW of the area with mostly dry conditions.
Temperatures will be a bit warmer on Wednesday ahead of a dry cold
front. Highs will be in the low 70s across VA/NC and upper 60s
across the MD Eastern Shore. Then by Thursday the dry cold front
will push through the area helping to bring in much cooler air.
Highs Thursday will be in the low to middle 60s. By Thursday night
temperatures will plummet into the low 40s with the possibility of
upper 30s across the MD Eastern Shore and the far NW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 755 PM EDT Saturday...

Widespread cloud cover with a mix of MVFR/IFR CIGs were noted
across the area this evening with IFR CIGs confined to far SE
VA/NE NC. Conditions will continue to deteriorate overnight
as a coastal low slowly lifts northward towards the area. The
associated large rain shield has made it to ECG with a few
showers at PHF/ORF just north of the main rain. Widespread
light to moderate rain will gradually expand across the
remainder of the terminals overnight into Sun, resulting in
reduced visibilities as well as IFR CIGs tonight through
tomorrow. The heaviest rain looks to fall late tonight into
early Sun morning (~5-12z Sun) with IFR VIS possible. Rain
becomes light later Sun morning through the day with showers (as
opposed to steady light rain/drizzle) possible. However, given
the light nature of the precip, confidence is low in VIS since
if heavy mist were to form (which is very possible if not
likely) then VIS might be lower in the mist as opposed to the
rain. In any case, light rain/drizzle continues through Sun
night, potentially lingering through Mon across parts of the
area.

CIGs have already dropped to IFR at ORF/ECG and will
likely bounce between IFR/MVFR at PHF over the next few hours
before dropping to IFR. IFR CIGs move to RIC by ~5z Sun and SBY
by ~6z, however, some model guidance holds off on IFR CIGs at
SBY until ~10z. Once CIGs drop to IFR, they will likely remain
IFR through Sun across the inland terminals (RIC/SBY). However,
a period of MVFR CIGs or a period of bouncing between IFR/MVFR
CIGs is possible across PHF/ORF/ECG from 12-20z Sun. CIGs drop
back to IFR by late Sun afternoon. Otherwise, NE winds increase
to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt overnight across inland
areas. Along the coast (ORF/ECG) winds increase to 25-30 kt with
gusts up to 35-40 kt late tonight into Sun morning, remaining
windy through the day. PHF will become windy as well, but to a
lesser extent than ORF/ECG (15-20 kt with gusts up to ~30 kt).
Winds increase across inland terminals on Sun to 15-20 kt with
gusts up to 25-30 kt.

Outlook: MVFR/IFR CIGs, elevated winds, and light showers will
continue to be possible Sun night into Mon as low pressure
lingers offshore. As such, degraded flying conditions likely
continue into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday..

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory conditions persist across most of the local
waters through this evening.

- Low pressure intensifies south of the area tonight. Gale and Storm
Warnings go into effect later tonight through Sunday and Sunday
night. Winds remain elevated Monday and Tuesday as the low is slow
to move away from the region.

Deepening 999mb low pressure is centered E of the GA/SC coast this
afternoon. Meanwhile, 1026mb high pressure is centered S of Nova
Scotia, with another ~1026mb high centered well to the NW S of James
Bay. The wind is ENE and ranges from ~15 kt across the northern Ches
Bay and coastal waters to 15-25 kt from roughly Cape Charles to the
south. Seas follow a similar pattern with 5-6 ft seas N and 6-8 ft
from VA Beach southward. Waves in the bay are 2-3 ft with 3-5 ft
near the mouth of the Bay.

No major changes with respect to the overall evolution of the
coastal low off the coast of GA/SC this aftn, which will track
northward over or close to our waters later Sunday into Monday.
While the exact evolution is still somewhat uncertain, there is
decent agreement that the system lifts up along the Carolina coast
late tonight/early Sunday and becomes elongated from SW to NE during
the day Sunday and Sunday night. This scenario results in a lengthy
period of strong NE winds across the area, ramping up this evening
with winds expected to peak across the region Sunday morning into
early Monday. There remains high confidence for significant marine
hazards, including high winds (potentially to Storm force for VA-MD
Ocean waters) and dangerous seas. Peak wind gusts range from 45-50
kt on the VA-MD coastal waters and mouth of the Bay (where Storm
Warnings are in effect). Timing for the Storm Warnings in the ocean
remains the same. However, the mouth of the Bay was extended through
7 PM to account for a slight uptick in 48kt probs later Sunday aftn.
Peak wind gusts are 40-45 kt in the rest of the Chesapeake Bay and
NC coastal waters, and 35-40 kt in the upper tidal rivers where Gale
Warnings are in effect.

With the broader/elongated coastal low, the progression through the
region will be prolonged into Tuesday and potentially early
Wednesday but with winds slowly decreasing to high-end SCA levels
during that period. The gradient finally starts to relax by mid week
with improving marine conditions. Seas are forecast to peak in the
15-20 ft range (sig wave height), with occasional waves up to 25+
ft. Sig Waves in the Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10
ft possible at the mouth of the bay. As winds decrease next week, so
will the seas, but only gradually.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday..

Later tonight through Sunday, as NE winds
rapidly increase, likely to Gale to local Storm force by early
Sunday, a rapid rise in anomalies is expected (a surge increase of
~2-2.5 ft in ~12 hrs). The high tide cycle occurring late tonight
into early Sunday is the lower astro tide, so even with a sharp
increase, generally only minor flooding is expected during this
period. The following high tide, occurring around noon Sunday along
the Ocean, and through the aftn elsewhere is the anticipated time
for peak water levels with this event. Widespread moderate to major
coastal flooding is expected during this period from the northern
Neck southward along the west side of the Bay and into the
Rappahannock, York, and James rivers, as well as most locations
along the Ocean. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for these
areas. Some minor flooding is possible with the high tide cycle
tonight for areas along the Bay so some of the Warnings actually go
into effect tonight (with the CFW product indicating the worst
flooding to occur with the following cycle on Sunday). The highest
probs for achieving Major flood thresholds will be the Ocean from NC
OBX to VA Beach, and the mouth of the Bay areas, as well as portions
up the James river and the York River through Yorktown.

Precise water levels will be highly dependent on the track of the
low and the associated wind direction, but confidence remains high
this forecast cycle given better model agreement that a strong NE
wind is likely to prevail through the Sunday tide cycle. The current
forecast is for many areas in the lower Bay/James river to see
flooding that has not been observed in at least a few years if not
longer, with top 10 levels likely. Additional flooding is likely
into at least Monday (possibly Tuesday), with the slower progression
of coastal low pressure, though exact water levels become more
uncertain given the potential for winds to diminish somewhat and to
become northwesterly as the low moves away from the coast.

A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the Bay-side of the MD
Eastern Shore (primarily from Bishops Head to Crisfield) through 7
PM where a ~1ft anomaly could push water levels to around minor
flood thresholds late this aftn. The following high tide will be the
lower astronomical with no tidal flooding expected for these
locations late tonight/early Sunday morning. Additional flooding at
these sites is possible later in the weekend and early next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Wind Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     MDZ024-025.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ025.
     High Wind Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     MDZ025.
NC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ017-102.
     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     VAZ099-100.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098>100.
     High Wind Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     VAZ099-100.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ095-097-525.
     Coastal Flood Warning from midnight tonight to 10 PM EDT
     Sunday for VAZ075>078-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ082-089-090-
     093-095>098-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday
     for VAZ083>086-518-520.
     Wind Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Sunday night
     for VAZ084-086-523.
     High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ630>632-634-638-650-652-654-656.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633.
     Storm Warning until 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ634.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ635>637.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ638.
     Storm Warning until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652.
     Storm Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ654-656.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/SW
NEAR TERM...HET/RMM/SW
SHORT TERM...HET/SW
LONG TERM...HET/SW
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...