119
FXUS61 KAKQ 300802
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
402 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances continue today and Tuesday. Moderate to locally
heavy rainfall is likely before slightly cooler and drier air
pushes into the region for the mid to late week period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled pattern continues today with scattered to numerous showers
  and isolated storms, especially across the western half of
  the area.

- Anomalously moist airmass stays in place with locally heavy rainfall
  resulting in the potential for areas of flooding this
  afternoon and evening.

- A Flood Watch for the Piedmont will be issued later this morning
  through late this evening.

Weak surface low pressure remains stationed west of the local area
with an upper trough keeping southwesterly flow aloft over the
region. A batch of moderate showers continues to lift northward
along the I-64 corridor early this morning. These showers have been
efficient rain-producers with PWATs generally 1.8-2" across the
area.

Expect a lull in the precip coverage and intensity after the current
batch of showers lifts away to the N and NW. Clouds will hang on
through the day and will tend to limit surface heating this
afternoon. Clouds may be a bit thinner across the southern third of
the area, resulting in some meager instability and a chance for a
few rumbles of thunder. The main story today with be the potential
for heavy rainfall across the Piedmont where HREF probs for 3"/3hrs
are maximized this afternoon and evening. In coordination with
neighboring offices to the west, will be issuing a Flood Watch from
late morning through late this evening from Mecklenburg County
northward to Louisa County as well as Goochland southward to
Nottoway (where 2-3" inches have fallen already this morning). The
highest PoPs will mainly be from I-95 and points west with 30-50%
PoPs for the eastern zones. Temperatures today will range from the
low to mid 70s NW to the upper 70s and low 80s SE.

Showers continue into tonight with lows mainly in the mid 60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Showers and a few storms are possible on Tuesday before deeper
  moisture moves offshore along with weak low pressure off the
  Carolina coast.

- Drier air arrives behind a cold front late Wednesday.

Unsettled pattern persist into Tuesday as the stubborn upper trough
finally translates east across the area and another surface low
deepens a bit near the coast. Temperatures range from the upper 60s
and low 70s N to the mid and upper 70s S Tuesday afternoon. Showers
and isolated storms should move offshore by Tuesday evening with
overnight lows mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s.

No precip is expected Wednesday but we will remain warm and somewhat
muggy until a cold front crosses the area Wednesday night. High
temps rise into the mid to upper 70s but lows cool into the mid 50s
to low 60s overnight.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dry with slightly cooler temperatures and lower humidity
  levels for the late week period.

Pleasant conditions expected Thursday with more sunshine and
comfortable humidity levels. Flow turns onshore briefly once
again on Friday which will increase low level moisture across
the area. Highs in the upper 70s and low 80s Friday afternoon.
Another cold front comes through late Friday with much lower
humidity in store for the weekend. Remaining dry with highs in
the 70s Saturday and Sunday and low falling back into the 50s.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 AM EDT Monday...

Low pressure continues to linger W of the region with high
pressure building to the NE, resulting in onshore flow with a
NE wind of 5-10kt. Radar shows a broad area of showers moving
northward in the Piedmont and I-95 corridor. Will include a
TEMPO at RIC to cover brief VSBY reductions with LIFR CIGs with
the heavier precip. Otherwise, IFR CIGs prevail at RIC until
after sunrise. For the eastern half of the area, there is a mix
of MVFR and IFR CIGs. Will keep MVFR prevailing at SBY and PHF
until 09z/5AM before going IFR. IFR CIGs are likely to move into
ORF and ECG a bit sooner and continue into mid morning. After
these showers move out we should see a lull in the precip until
this afternoon at RIC and into the evening for the remaining
terminals. CIGs look to stay MVFR across the region through the
day with IFR likely returning tonight.

An upper level trough will slowly cross the region through
Tuesday bringing unsettled conditions to the region with a chc
of showers and few tstms. Conditions are expected to improve mid
to late week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory issued from Fenwick Island DE to
  Parramore Island VA until 6 am Wednesday, rest of VA coast
  and lower bay to come later in day.

- Low pressure offshore allows increasing N to NE winds and
  waves through midweek.

- Prevailing sub-advisory conditions are expected from Thursday
  through Friday before another round of SCAs is possible this
  weekend.

Low pressure over KY/TN and offshore VA is causing a stationary
front just south of the local area. Meanwhile, high pressure is
situated well NE of the local area. Onshore N to NE flow is to bring
possible SCA conditions through midweek. Waves in the northern
coastal waters are near 5 ft with winds around 14 kt. As such, SCA
has been issued for Fenwick Island DE to Parramore Island VA until 6
am Wednesday. The mouth of the bay, the lower bay, and the southern
VA coastal waters will have a SCA starting at 1 pm this afternoon
lasting until 6 am Wednesday. The lower James River will have a SCA
starting at 1 pm this afternoon to 2 am Tuesday morning.

Winds today will increase to 16-18 kt in the ocean and 13-16 kt in
the bay as the pressure gradient between the coastal low pressure
and high pressure tightens. Winds increase on Tuesday to 17-20
kt in the northern coastal waters, 13-16 kt in the southern
coastal waters, and 15-17 kt in the bay. Expect waves from 3-5
ft in the northern coastal waters and 2-4 ft in the southern
coastal waters, building to 5-7 ft in the northern coastal
waters and 3-6 ft in the southern coastal waters by Wednesday
morning.

Winds diminish quickly later Wednesday into Wednesday night as high
pressure settles over the area. Sub-SCA winds prevail through
Friday. Seas will take a bit more time to subside, and 5ft seas
could linger through part of Thursday. One more round of SCAs is
possible by the weekend as another cold front crosses the
waters.
Slightly cooler temperatures and lower humidity levels for mid
  to late week behind a midweek cold frontal passage.

The upper low continues to weaken on Wednesday, though warm,
moist airmass remains in place to begin the forecast period.
A cold front should move through the region on Wednesday but
model ensembles remain a bit more intent to keep bulk of cool
air advection locked up across the Great Lakes and northeast/New
England. As such, temperatures look to trend only slightly
cooler for the latter half of the week, albeit with slightly
drier conditions with onshore flow quickly returning for Thu/Fri.

Still expect the extended forecast to be dry with high pressure
building into the region late Wednesday through early Friday,
before sliding offshore Friday into next weekend. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s, increasing into the
upper 70s Thursday into the weekend. Overnight low temps mainly
in the 50s to low 60s.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

A river Flood Warning remains in effect for the James River at
Richmond-Westham. See water.noaa.gov and FLWAKQ for additional
information.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for all areas adjacent
  to the bay/ocean through Tuesday morning to account for
  widespread minor tidal flooding.

- A Coastal Flood Watch has been issued for the
  Rappahannock/tidal Potomac south to Mathews County for
  Tuesday`s high tide, as confidence in moderate flooding here
  has increased some.

- Locally moderate tidal flooding is possible along the James
  River on Tuesday/Tuesday night, but confidence is not high
  enough yet to issue a watch.

- Tidal anomalies slowly fall from Wednesday-Thursday, but
  widespread minor flooding likely continues through at least
  Wednesday night.

Anomalies have begun to rise again and are now 1.4-1.8 ft above
normal across much of the Ches Bay as winds have become ENE. will
likely start rising later today as winds become ENE. Tidal anomalies
will continue to slowly rise on through Tuesday/Tuesday night with
the increase in NE winds, and expect widespread minor to locally
moderate tidal flooding in the upper bay and on the west side of the
bay, with widespread minor tidal flooding in the lower bay and
perhaps even the ocean. Have extended/issued Coastal Flood
Advisories for all zones adjacent to the bay/ocean/rivers through
Tuesday morning (and these will have to be extended further).
Anomalies should fall a little bit from Wed-Thu...but widespread
minor tidal flooding likely continues through at least Wednesday
night.

Have to watch areas along the tidal James River from Smithfield to
Jamestown for localized moderate flooding during the high tide
cycles on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Did not have enough confidence
to issue a watch on this shift as the forecast shows water levels
barely exceeding moderate flood stage and winds may become more N
than NE by Tue night. However, future shifts may need to consider
watches for areas along the upper James. Lastly, localized moderate
tidal flooding is possible in southern Dorchester County/Bishop`s
Head, but not planning on issuing watches/warnings unless it appears
that Cambridge/Crisfield will see moderate flooding.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ024-025.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ075>078-
     085-086-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ083-084-
     089-090-093-095>100-518-520-523>525.
     Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
     VAZ048-060>062-065>069-513.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ654-656.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...AJZ/RHR
MARINE...KMC
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...