001
FXUS61 KAKQ 071111
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
711 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms push into the area today into
tonight as a meandering frontal boundary slowly clears the
area late today and tonight. Much cooler temperatures are
expected for Tuesday and Wednesday, with below freezing temperatures
likely Tuesday night away from the immediate coast. Near normal
temperatures will prevail from mid to late week, with another
chance for showers on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 705 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread rainfall overspreads the area today into tonight.

- There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall through this
  afternoon.

- There is a conditional severe weather threat across SE VA into
  NE NC this afternoon. Main threat would be damaging winds, but
  a brief tornado cannot be altogether ruled out.

Latest Sfc analysis shows the well-advertised slow-moving
frontal boundary draped from just north of the VA NC border
back into the SW VA piedmont and extending southwest into the
western Carolinas.

Aloft, the first in a series of weak shortwaves overrunning the
boundary was noted crossing the local area early this morning,
with numerous weak waves of low pressure continue to stream
moisture from SW to NE along the frontal boundary. Plenty of
moisture will be in place to support moderate to heavy rain
given PWATs surging to 1.5-1.7" this morning. Have had showers
and even a few rumbles of thunder across south central VA early
this morning, and rain continues to gradually fill in over the
remainder of the area over the next few hours. BUFR soundings
showing some modest elevated instability along the frontal zone
mainly south of RIC metro. Given that we`ve already noted some
rumbles of thunder early this morning, went ahead and nudged a
Thunder mention up into RIC metro through mid-morning. No real
severe threat through mid-morning, but some locally heavy
downpours are likely through mid-morning. The front will buckle
back north across south central and SE VA late this morning and
early this afternoon, taking the main axis of overrunning
moisture north across the NW half of the area. The main axis of
the rain gradually shifts SE through the afternoon into tonight
as the front slowly moves back southeast and offshore through
tonight. There is a threat for locally gusty winds with the
front, but the severe threat is minimal on the cool side of the
boundary. Inverted-V look to soundings do portend a bit of a
gusty/damaging winds issue where we can get any clearing and
modest destabilization. A Marginal Risk from SPC remains in
place for the southern half of the area. Given expected cloud
cover and minimal heating, expect south central VA has a small,
albeit non-zero severe threat. Far SE VA and coastal NE NC,
however will need to be monitored, especially SE of US-13 for
a brief gusty wind threat this afternoon.

Storm total QPF calls for a widespread 1.5- 2" with locally
higher amounts up to ~3" possible. The 00z/7 HREF probability-
matched- mean is still showing enhanced probabilities (30-50%)
for 1-2" of rain in 3-hrs from late this morning into the
afternoon across south central and SE VA from FKN to Va Beach
and into adjacent NE NC. Antecedent dry conditions should
preclude any widespread significant flooding issues, but usual
issues in urban and poor drainage/flood-prone areas remain a
good possibility, especially with potentially heavy downpours
across Hampton Roads. The WPC also has much of the area (south
of a Farmville- Richmond-Melfa line) in a Day 1 Marginal ERO. A
tight temperature gradient will be maintained tonight and
tomorrow. 50s for the northern half of the area, with low to mid
60s across south central and western Tidewater, with low to mid
70s across southside Hampton Roads and NE NC. Will likely see
one last day with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 on the
north side of the Albemarle Sound from Edenton to Elizabeth
City. Many locations will likely see a non- diurnal cool down
during the afternoon as the front and steadier rain shifts back
south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dry conditions prevail Tuesday through Wednesday

- Tuesday night will bring below freezing temperatures to
  portions of the forecast area. Freeze Warnings will be needed
  for most inland areas active in the Frost/Freeze Program.

Cold 1028+mb high pressure and an UL trough will build east
today and tonight, nudging the front offshore tonight. They will
also usher in a secondary front late tonight that will bring
gusty NW winds late tonight and Tuesday. Those winds bring a
sharp cool down for the first half of the work week, a far cry
from the summer preview of this past weekend.

Mostly cloudy tonight. Despite drying aloft, moisture lingering
in the low levels leave us prone to some drizzle and patchy fog
for at least the first half of the evening, drying out with
some partial clearing late. Lows late tonight/Tues morning will
be in the mid 30 in the NW, with low-mid 40s elsewhere. Chilly
highs on Tues average 10-15 deg F below normal, ranging through
the 50s (cooler N, warmer S). Atlantic coastal portions of the
MD Eastern Shore may even stay in the upper 40s. Gusts up to
35 mph expected near the coast, 20-30mph inland. Diminishing
winds, and the incoming cold, dry airmass will make for an
excellent radiating night Tuesday night. Freeze Warnings are
likely to be needed for much of the (inland) area that is active
in the frost program (i.e. all but the far NW corner of the CWA
from Prince Edward northeast to Caroline County). Lows in the
mid- upper 20s expected away from the immediate coast to low-
mid 30s coastal areas. Milder but still on the cool side Wed,
with highs in the mid- upper 50s under a partly to mostly sunny
sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler, seasonable temperatures return by mid-late week.

- Another chance for rain comes on Friday into Saturday as
  another front moves through the forecast area.

- Temperatures gradually warm up above climo next weekend into
  early next week.

The modifying high pressure lifts NE as a cold front approaches
Appalachia. That front then crosses into the area Thursday
night into Friday. Thursday looks generally dry, though we could
see a few aftn showers in the NW. Compressional heating warms us
back toward climo on Thursday with highs in the mid- upper 60s.
Lows Thurs night in the upper 40-mid 50s. Chances for rain
increase Thu night and continue into Friday. Uncertainty
increases as the global models diverge for the weekend period.
While there is decent alignment about a deep sfc trough sliding
over the east coast, there is disagreement regarding the
formation of a sfc low in the vicinity of the FA. Where the
prospective low tracks, the timing, and the strength of the
system will ultimately decide precip chances and winds. Ensemble
guidance still showing a bit of a mixed message with a large
spread of solutions from the EPS/GEFS and hence the NBM and
LREF. Temps should generally be in the 60s regardless, with the
models all drying us out late next weekend into early next week
with strong ridging over the plains slowly building eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 705 AM EDT Monday...

A cold front has dropped through the area early this morning,
and is oriented just south of the VA/NC border as of this
writing. Behind the front, winds have turned around to the
N/NE, with southerly winds continuing just south of the boundary.
More widespread rainfall has overspread the area this morning,
mainly across central and south central VA along the front. The
will buckle back northward slightly through mid-morning as more
widespread showers overrun the front. This will result in a
prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain today through this
evening, with lower VSBYs in heavier showers. Ceilings have degraded
to IFR/(LCL LIFR in heavier showers), with MVFR on the warm
side of the front at ORF/ECG later this morning into midday.
All terminals save for ORF/ECG will likely stay IFR through the
remainder of the period, with ECG dropping into low- end
MVFR/IFR this evening. Thunder will be possible at
PHF/ORF/ECG from late morning into the afternoon at the SE
coastal terminals.

Outlook: Showers continue through into Monday night ahead of
a slow-moving cold frontal passage. Conditions will finally
start to clear at all sites by Tuesday morning, and VFR
conditions will prevail through Thursday ahead of another
approaching front late this week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 343 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Strong SCA conditions are expected Tuesday/Tuesday night all
  zones, with a brief period of gale force gusts possible,
  especially across the north.

A frontal boundary is draped across the NC/VA border this morning.
The coastal waters south of the boundary still have south to
southwest winds, while the waters to the north have northeasterly
winds. Winds are generally around 10 kts north of the front, while
winds have remained elevated at around 10 to 15 kts with gust to 20
kts in the southern coastal waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains
in effect for the Ocean waters due to seas up to 5 ft. The
aforementioned front will lift northwards today, leading to a wind
shift in a majority of the waters back to southwesterly. A subtle
wind increase is also expected, but winds will stay sub-SCA for
today. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms (mainly across the
southern coastal waters) are likely for a majority of the day today,
and winds and seas will be higher in any convection. A few
thunderstorms could become stronger this morning into early
afternoon, so these will be handled with Special Marine Warnings.

A stronger cold front will push through all of the coastal waters by
tonight, leading to a wind shift to the north. Overnight tonight
into early Tuesday morning, a strong surge of CAA is expected, and
winds will increase rapidly in response. Sustained winds will reach
20 kts for the rivers/sound, 20-30 kts in the Bay (strongest in the
northern Bay), and generally 20-25 kts in the Ocean (potentially
higher in the northern Ocean). Gusts to 35-40 kts are possible,
especially in the northern Bay and Ocean, but due to the brief
nature and marginal threat, have decided to stick with high-end
SCAs for those waters for now. Some guidance is trending upwards in
terms of wind speed, so we will continue to monitor this through
tonight. Seas in the Bay will briefly peak at 3-5 ft, and the Ocean
will peak at 4-6 ft.

Behind the front, high pressure will build across the region and
winds will drop by Tuesday night. Sub-SCA conditions will prevail
through Thursday morning. A brief surge of winds due to a tightened
gradient between the high moving offshore and an area of low
pressure approaching the Great Lakes region may bring at least the
Bay briefly into SCA criteria on Thursday afternoon. Thereafter, sub-
SCA conditions will return. There is some uncertainty in the long-
term wind forecast due to varying solutions of the global models, so
there is a chance for SCA conditions to return Friday through the
weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-
     635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-
     654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AC/MAM
LONG TERM...AC/MAM
AVIATION...AJB/AC/MAM
MARINE...LKB/NB