673
FXUS61 KAKQ 121051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
651 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist through
the weekend, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms each day.
The potential for diurnal thunderstorms will continue early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 650 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid inland this afternoon with isolated storms possible,
  especially west of I-95.

- Not as warm along the coast behind a weak back door front.

A weak front is forecast to move slowly inland this morning
into the afternoon. Areas that remain to the west of the
boundary will warm into the low/mid 90s with dew points in the
low/mid 70s, resulting in afternoon heat indices 100-104.
Slightly cooler east of the front with highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s near the coast. The front will serve as weak focus for
showers and storms by this afternoon. Forecast soundings show
ample instability in the hot/humid airmass but very weak flow
aloft should keep storms of the pulse variety. Brief strong wind
gusts are the main threat from water-loaded downdrafts this
afternoon and early evening. SPC has included the western tier
of counties in a Marginal Risk of severe. Precipitable water
hovers near 2" along and to the west of the front, so locally
heavy rainfall and associated flash flood potential will be a
concern with slow-moving storms this afternoon. WPC has the area
in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall today. Showers and
storms may linger into the evening across the western half of
the area but should come to an end by midnight or so. Warm and
muggy overnight with lows in the 70s. Some fog and low stratus
are possible, especially in areas that see rainfall during the
afternoon/evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Slightly cooler Sunday with diurnal convection expected to west of
  the weak front that lingers over the eastern third of the area.

- Additional showers and storms are possible Monday as a front
  approaches from the NW.

Greater coverage of showers and storms is expected across the
western half of the area on Sunday as a prefrontal trough sharpens
along the higher terrain to the west. Shear will be modestly higher
Sunday vs today with localized wet microbursts the main severe
weather threat. SPC has included areas generally along and west of I-
95 in a marginal severe risk. Deep moisture lingers over the area
and locally heavy rainfall will accompany the convection Sunday
afternoon and evening. WPC has maintained the Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall across most of the region with a Slight Risk just
clipping our NW Piedmont counties. Increased cloud cover and showers
will help to keep temperatures in check with highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s inland. Cooler along the coast Sunday with mid and upper
80s in areas that remain to the east of the diffuse frontal
boundary. Showers and storms likely linger into the overnight but
should lose some punch as the boundary layer cools considerably by
late evening.

A cold front approaches the region from the NW on Monday with
continued shower and storm chances. Widespread clouds and precip
should keep a lid on the severe threat Monday but a few locally
strong wind gusts are possible. Potential for flash flooding
will be the primary concern on Monday, especially in areas that
see appreciable rainfall on Sunday. WPC has the entire area in a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. High temps Monday
generally in the upper 80s. Lingering showers and storms will
become confined toward the coast Monday night with temps in the
low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Unsettled pattern continues into next week with seasonably warm
  and humid conditions and mainly diurnal shower and storm chances.

Afternoon and evening showers and storms continue well into next
week with the aforementioned cold front stalling near/just west of
the local area. Plenty of instability should be in place across the
region next week but the main belt of stronger flow aloft will be
displaced well to the north. Strong wind gusts and localized
flooding will continue to be a threat each afternoon and evening.
Temperatures top out in the upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday with overnight lows remaining in the low to mid 70s.
Warmer conditions are expected by late week with highs creeping back
into the low to mid 90s. Afternoon heat indices potentially rise
back toward Heat Advisory criteria (105+) Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Saturday...

A mix of flying conditions early this morning across the region.
Satellite and surface observations show some MVFR/IFR CIG/VSBY,
mostly to the SW of the main terminals. Conditions are
improving at SBY which was IFR through much of the early
morning. Will prevail IFR until 13z for now. Expect VFR to
dominate through the remainder of the morning and afternoon.
Light and variable winds this morning become SE 5-10 kt this
afternoon. Some CU expected after mid morning with bases around
4000 ft. Some showers and isolated storms are possible, mainly
for inland terminals during the afternoon and evening but very
low confidence in coverage and timing preclude a specific
mention in the forecast.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered afternoon-late evening tstms are
expected through the weekend and into early next week, along
with the potential for early morning fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue outside of local influences from
  afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail this weekend and continue
through the middle of next week as high pressure remains anchored
off the Southeast coast. The wind is mainly S 5-10kt early this
morning. A weak front will push across the coast later this morning
resulting in a wind shift to NE 5-10kt. By this aftn into this
evening, the wind will become ESE and mainly 5-10kt, with the
exception of 10-12kt in the Ches. Bay. The wind is expected to be SE
5-10kt Sunday with a slight diurnal increase during the late
aftn/early evening hours, and then mainly S to SW 5-10kt early next
week, before potentially becoming SW 10-15kt later Wednesday. Seas
will mainly be 2-3ft this weekend through the middle of next week,
with 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Aftn/evening
showers/tstms will have limited coverage today and Sunday, with
potentially higher chances by Monday aftn/evening, and then less
coverage toward the middle of next week. The main hazards with tstms
will be brief strong wind gusts and frequent lighting.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJZ