


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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168 FXUS61 KAKQ 170712 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 312 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry conditions are expected through early Saturday as high pressure moves into the local area from the Great Lakes. A warming trend is expected this weekend with the next system approaching from the northwest. There is a chance for showers Sunday night, followed by mainly dry weather next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Chilly to start the day, then sunny and pleasant with temps in the 60s. 1020mb high pressure is centered NW of the area early this morning, leading to light/calm winds in the Piedmont. Northerly winds continue along the coast. Satellite imagery shows clear skies across the region with temperatures falling into the 30s and low 40s by sunrise. Maintained the mention of patchy frost over the Piedmont where some mid 30s are forecast before sunrise. Another day of below normal temperatures is expected today despite the full sunshine. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid and upper 60s inland to the low 60s for the Eastern Shore and immediate coast. Not as cool tonight as some mid and high level moisture moves into the region with increasing clouds. Lows mainly in the mid 40s across the area with relative warmer lows across the west and slightly cooler east where clouds will have the least effect on radiation cooling potential. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Warmer Saturday as high pressure drops SE off the Carolina coast. - A cold front approaches Sunday and crosses the area Sunday night, bringing increasing clouds, gusty SW winds, and a chance for showers. Partly sunny and warmer Saturday with highs in the 70s for much of the area while mid to upper 60s hang on across the Eastern Shore. Low level flow becomes S or SE on Saturday as high pressure translates to the south and east. Dry and mild Saturday night with lows only falling into the 50s. S and SW winds increase on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the surface cold front. Winds gust 25-30mph inland and up to 35mph near the coast. We warm well above seasonal norms Sunday with highs well into the 70s across the area. 00z guidance continues to differ regarding the strength and placement of low pressure along the front with the ECMWF remaining the most amplified/farther south vs the GFS/CMC. Will show chance PoPs mainly across the Piedmont prior to sunset but the bulk of the showers will arrive Sunday evening into the overnight hours. Models do agree that coverage of showers will be higher across the N and NW portions of area with lesser coverage and QPF across the SE. Ensembles show rather meager QPF with very low/zero probabilities of seeing more than 0.5", even from the more bullish EPS. Forecast event total QPF is generally 0.2" or less. Some showers may linger near the coast toward sunrise with low temps in the upper 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Cooler Monday with another cold front expected to cross the region late Tuesday into Wednesday with very limited moisture. Decreasing temperatures and humidity will move into the region on Monday behind the cold front. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 60s with full sunshine expected. Remaining dry Monday night with lows falling back into the 40s. Warmer Tuesday ahead of the next front with highs mainly in the low 70s. Blended guidance is not excited about the chance for any appreciable rainfall with this front. Staying dry and seasonable mid to late week with highs generally in the 60s with lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 120 AM EDT Friday... Clear skies persist through the 06z TAF period across the region. Winds have calmed a bit but remain mainly NW 5-10 kt across the area. Gusting 20-25 kt at ORF will continue into the mid to late afternoon. Winds become light at all terminals after sunset. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected through Saturday. S/SW winds increase on Sunday to ~15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will bring a chance for showers, mainly Sunday night. It does not appear to be a significant rain event at this time, so only brief flight restrictions are anticipated, if any. Dry weather returns Monday. && .MARINE... As of 245 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue across the local waters today. - High pressure builds over the waters tonight and Saturday with improving marine conditions. - Small Craft Advisories are likely Sunday into Monday with the next frontal passage. Cool high pressure is centered from the central Appalachians to southern Quebec early this morning, with low pressure well offshore of the NE CONUS coast. The pressure gradient between these features combined with decent CAA following a cold frontal passage is resulting in N winds of 20-25 kt with frequent gusts of ~30 kt on the bay/ocean. A few gusts to 35 kt have been observed at elevated sites during the past few hours. Seas are 5-7 ft, with 3-5 ft waves on the bay. SCAs remain in effect for the bay, ocean, lower James River, and Currituck Sound. N-NNW winds gradually diminish today as the high builds toward the waters, with speeds of only 10-15 kt expected by early evening. SCAs are in effect through 10 AM for the Lower James, 4 PM for most of the bay and Currituck Sound, and this evening/tonight for the mouth of the bay/ocean (due to lingering elevated seas/waves). The high settles over the area tonight before moving just to the SE of the waters on Saturday. Light/variable winds are expected from late tonight-Sat before shifting to the S-SE and increasing to 10-15 kt by late Sat night/early Sun AM. Later this weekend, a deepening low pressure system will track just to the north of the area...with the associated cold front quickly crossing the local waters Sunday night-early Monday AM. SCA conditions are very likely both ahead of and behind the front. Southerly winds increase to 15-20 kt by Sun aftn before increasing to 20-25 kt (with gusts of 25-30 kt) by Sun evening. Our local wind probs indicate the potential for 35 kt gusts Sun evening for a few hours right ahead of the front across the northern coastal waters (probs of 34 kt gusts briefly increase to 30-60%). However, will note that model guidance and our local wind probs have a tendency to overestimate the frequency of gale force gusts in southerly wind/WAA regimes. Nevertheless, will continue to monitor this potential. In addition, SMWs may be needed for gusty showers that could accompany the FROPA Sun night. Winds quickly shift to the west Sunday night following the FROPA with westerly winds of 20-25 kt expected to continue through the day on Monday as the low quickly exits to our NE. Sub-SCA winds are expected Mon night-Tue AM before another round of SCAs is possible late Tue-Wed as another cold front is progged to approach and cross the waters. Waves and seas are expected to subside to 2-3 ft in the bay and 4-6 ft in the coastal waters today. Seas offshore are expected to stay at or above 5 ft into early Saturday morning. Seas of 3-4 ft (with 1- 3 ft waves) are expected from Sat-Sun AM before building back to 5-7 ft Sun evening/night. Waves build to 3-4 ft on the bay during this time. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Water levels are expected to rise in the upper bay starting on Saturday but especially Saturday night-Sunday (due to the increasing south winds ahead of the front). Minor tidal flooding is likely during this time from Windmill Point northward, with localized moderate flooding possible on the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore. The best chance for moderate flooding is during the high tide cycles on Sunday/Sunday night as winds become SW then W behind the front. Water levels gradually fall early next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB/RHR NEAR TERM...RHR SHORT TERM...RHR LONG TERM...RHR AVIATION...RHR MARINE...ERI TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ