237
FXUS61 KAKQ 101101
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
701 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure builds into the Mid-Atlantic today into
Friday. This area of high pressure settles offshore Saturday and
Sunday bringing a warming trend. A strong, but mainly dry cold
front crosses the region Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 345 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler and breezy today, especially toward and along the
  coast.

GOES water vapor channels depict an upper level trough over the
Northeast early this morning, with the Mid-Atlantic region on
the southern periphery of this trough. At the surface, a dry
cold front is pushing S along the coast, with 1025mb high
pressure centered well NW of the area over the Great Lakes.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Milton is moving E over FL. High pressure
builds in from the NW today as Hurricane Milton moves E off the
Atlantic coast of FL and remains well S and SE of the local
area. Cirrus associated with Milton will push E today with a
partly to mostly cloudy sky early becoming sunny by afternoon.
Cooler with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s and a N
wind of 10-15 mph for most of the area, and locally 15-20 mph
with gusts to 25 mph along the coast of SE VA and NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- A pleasant fall airmass remains over the area through Saturday
  week featuring cool nights, mild days, and low humidity.

1025mb Canadian high pressure settles into the Mid- Atlantic
tonight. Quite cool with lows in the upper 30s to around 40F
over the Piedmont, lower to mid 40s over the interior coastal
plain and the interior of the MD Eastern Shore. Milder toward
the coast with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s, and mid 50s
for coastal SE VA and NE NC. This area of high pressure remains
over the region Friday. Sunny and pleasant Friday with a light
NW wind. High temperatures moderate slightly into the upper 60s
to around 70F.

High pressure weakens and remains over the region Friday night.
Not quite as cool but low temperatures are still expected to be
below normal and range from the lower to mid 40s inland, upper
40s to lower 50s, toward the coast, and lower to mid 50s for
coastal SE VA and NE NC. Surface high pressure moves offshore
Saturday as an upper ridge builds E from the Ohio Valley into
the Mid-Atlantic. Warmer with highs in the upper 70s Saturday
with a light W to SW wind.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer temperatures are expected Sunday with dry conditions
  continuing.

- A strong cold front moves through the area early next week
  potentially bringing the coolest airmass of the season.

- Primarily dry conditions continue into the middle of next
  week.

Surface high pressure remains offshore Sunday. Meanwhile, the
upper ridge begins to break down ahead of a vigorous trough that
digs across the Great Lakes. 850mb temperatures surge to
15-17C. However, the boundary layer will likely not mix quite
that deep, so forecast highs are in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
but do have the potential to be a few degrees warmer with deeper
mixing.

The trough drops into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast early next
week with the 00z/10 EPS/GEFS each indicating the 500mb trough
reaching minus 2 to minus 3 st dev by Tuesday with the stronger
anomalies pushing offshore by Wednesday. This will push a strong
cold front through the region Monday, which will likely be
followed by the coolest airmass so far this autumn. Forecast
highs Monday range from the mid 60s NW to the mid 70s SE, but
will be dependent on the timing of the front. EPS/GEFS suggest
2m temperature anomalies fall to ~10F below normal by Tuesday
and Wednesday, which would support highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Lows Tuesday morning are forecast to drop into the
lower 40s N and NW with upper 40s/around 50F SE. Forecast lows
Wednesday morning range from the upper 30s/around 40F N and NW
to the mid/upper 40s SE, but have the potential to be cooler
depending on how quickly the surface high builds in from the NW,
especially across the Piedmont.

Dry conditions are expected to prevail through the medium range
forecast period. The only exception may be the cold frontal
passage Monday, but confidence continues to remain low as PW
anomalies only briefly reach near to slightly above normal with
the frontal passage Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday will likely be
partly sunny to occasionally mostly cloudy during the day with
colder temperatures aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail today into tonight as high pressure
builds into the region in the wake of a dry cold front. Cirrus
well N of Hurricane Milton over the area this morning will begin
to move offshore, with the sky becoming clear this aftn into
tonight. A N to NNE wind of 10-15kt will develop this morning
and continue into the aftn, with gusts to ~20kt toward the
coast. A N wind will diminish to 5-10kt tonight.

VFR and dry conditions continue Friday through Sunday as high
pressure prevails. A strong but mainly dry cold front crosses
the region Monday with VFR conditions continuing.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 405 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- High pressure building in from the north will result in a
  northerly surge that will cause an increase in wind speeds and
  wave/sea heights today into Friday morning. Small Craft
  Advisories are in effect for most of the local waters.

Early this morning, strong high pressure was centered over the
Great Lakes. Winds were N at 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across
the waters. Waves were 2-3 ft and seas were 3-5 ft.

The center of the high will drop SSE today and tonight toward
the region, and become centered over West VA by early Fri
morning. This will bring a decent northerly surge over the
local marine area, with N winds of 15 to 20 kt with gusts of 25
to 30 kt across most of the waters from this morning into early
Fri morning. Wave heights on the Bay are expected to build to 3
to 4 ft. On the ocean, seas will build 4 to 5 ft, except up to
6 ft off of VA Beach and the northern OBX. Winds will diminish
during Fri, and waves/seas will subside as well, allowing for
SCAs to end Fri morning. W to SW winds 5-15 kt are generally
expected Sat into Sun morning, ahead of the next cold front. By
late Sun into Mon, models show the next cold front crossing the
region with another round of SCAs likely into Tue.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630-631-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ633.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...HET/TMG