535
FXUS61 KAKQ 011235
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
835 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in this weekend with below normal temperatures
expected. Confidence is increasing in a weak coastal low bringing
light to moderate rain across southeastern portions of the area
Sunday night into Monday. Dry conditions return Tuesday through the
remainder of the week with near normal temperatures expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 835 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and sunny conditions continue today.

- Chilly tonight into Sunday morning with lows in the mid-upper
  30s inland and low-mid 30s across interior SE VA and NE NC.
  Additional Frost Advisories will likely be needed.


The Frost Advisory has been able to end early due to
temperatures already rising into the upper 30s to low 40s
across the area. High pressure builds in from the SW today,
allowing for light winds across most of the area under mostly
sunny skies. However, a brief period of gusts up to 20 mph is
possible across the Eastern Shore early this afternoon. While
much less wind is anticipated today compared to Fri, forecast
soundings still depict a well mixed environment. As such, have
raised highs into the mid 60s with a few locations potentially
making it into the upper 60s. Additionally, dry weather is
expected with min RH of ~35% inland.

High pressure centers over the region tonight. Given calm winds and
mostly clear skies overnight (E of I-95), temps are expected to
decouple quickly with overnight lows in the mid-upper 30s
likely inland. The coolest area looks to be across interior
portions of SE VA/NE NC where lows in the low-mid 30s are
possible. As such, areas of frost are possible in this region
with patchy frost elsewhere. Will note that there is some
uncertainty with respect to temps given the increasing cloud
cover from W to E overnight into Sun morning. If clouds move in
faster, temps may trend warmer and vice versa. Additionally, NBM
50th percentile has lows around freezing across interior SE
VA/NE NC with NBM 25th percentile showing lows of 30- 32F. While
confidence is not high enough (given uncertainty with cloud
cover and lack of other model support for these temps) for a
Freeze Watch, cannot rule out a few locations reaching around
freezing Sun morning. In any case, a Frost Advisory will likely
be needed for a portion of the area with areas of frost likely.
However, after coordination with neighboring offices, have opted
to wait for the current Frost Advisories to expire before
issuing any additional Frost Advisories for tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Clouds increase Sunday with dry conditions likely continuing through
  Sunday afternoon.

- Rain chances are increasing for Sunday night into Monday area-
  wide with the greatest chance across SE VA/NE NC.

Aloft, a cutoff low moves from the MS Valley into the Southeast Sun
into Mon before moving offshore. This helps form a weak surface low
offshore Sun night into Mon. Cloud cover increases through the day
on Sun with rain likely holding off through the afternoon.
Uncertainty remains regarding rainfall totals with some
deterministic models showing the potential for localized totals of 1-
2" whereas the EPS and NBM show 0.5-0.75" across far SE VA/NE NC
with rainfall totals tapering to ~0.1-0.15" at Richmond. However,
confidence continues to increase with respect to PoPs with 30-50%
PoPs across S portions of the FA Sun evening, increasing to 45-60%
across SE VA/NE NC later Sun night. PoPs decrease to 25-50% early on
Mon, decreasing during the afternoon. Any lingering light rain moves
offshore by Mon evening with dry conditions returning. Otherwise,
highs in the mid 60s Sun and mainly lower 60s Mon are expected with
the lowest confidence in temps on Mon given uncertainty regarding
how long rain lingers over the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- A gradual warmup is expected through mid-week with dry weather continuing.

Aloft, a trough lingers across New England with a ridge across the
central CONUS Tue-Thu with the ridge building into the Eastern CONUS
late Thu into Fri. At the surface, high pressure over the area on
Tue gradually shifts SE through the week. This will allow for a
gradual warming trend through midweek with highs in the mid 60s Tue
and upper 60s on Wed. A dry cold front moves across the area late
Wed night into early Thu with highs remaining in the 60s for the
rest of the week. Dry weather is expected through the week with a
slight chance for a few showers across the northern half of the FA
Fri night. Lows remain near to slightly below normal with mid-upper
30s possible on Tue and Thu nights.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 540 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period. Clear/mainly
clear skies persist through the day outside of a few high
clouds across the NW. High clouds slowly build E overnight
tonight. W winds remain light through the day (~5 kt) before
becoming calm tonight given high pressure overhead. The
exception is SBY where W winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts
up to 20 kt this afternoon. However, even at SBY, winds become
calm tonight.

Outlook: Clouds slowly build Sun ahead of an approaching trough
and developing weak coastal low. A weak coastal low likely
tracks offshore Sun night into Mon, bringing some light to
occasionally moderate rain and flight restrictions to the area.
The highest chance is across SE VA/NE NC. High pressure is
expected to bring VFR conditions Mon night onward.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Benign boating conditions return to the local waters this
  afternoon through the remainder of the weekend, as high
  pressure builds overhead from the west.

- Another potential Low pressure system is expected to form off
  the coast Monday through Tuesday morning, bringing another
  round of SCAs across the local waters Monday through Tuesday
  evening.

Latest analysis reveals deepening 972mb sfc low pressure now
over Atlantic Canada. 1022+mb sfc high pressure to the SW of the
waters will slowly build over the local waters through this
evening. Winds are still 15-20 kt early this morning over the
lower and middle bay, Currituck Sound, and the Atlantic coastal
waters, 10-15 kt over the eastern VA rivers. Winds will continue
to diminish over the next few hours, as high pressure builds in
and gradient slackens further. Expect SCAs will be lowered on
time at 4am over the Bay and by 7 am over the coastal waters
(perhaps taking a bit longer over northern waters mainly due to
lingering swell.

West winds 10-15 kt late this morning into early afternoon, with
gusts to ~20 kt in the lower bay and coastal waters should
slowly diminish to 5-10 kt from mid to late afternoon and
tonight. Waves 1 to 2 ft, seas 2-4 ft. These marine conditions
will persist through Sunday with winds becoming more NE by
Sunday afternoon in response to developing coastal low pressure
just south of the local waters. This will bring potential SCA
winds back into the lower bay by late Sunday night/early Monday
morning, with Wind Probs already back AOA 60% for NE winds of
18 kt or greater over the lower Bay and lower James River from
just before sunrise Monday into Monday afternoon, as the low
scoots NNE along the NC coast and then farther offshore. A
secondary push of SCA-level NW winds then follows behind the
departing system late Monday night into Tuesday morning. SE
wind waves also increase Monday, in response to the stronger
winds, and help to build seas to 4-6 ft Monday and Tuesday,
before gradually subsiding Tue evening, as winds turn back
offshore.

Conditions improve Tuesday night and early Wednesday, before
additional SCA potential returns for Wed night through late
week in response to a series of weak, though mainly dry,
frontal passages.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...HET/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...MAM