417
FXUS61 KAKQ 081405
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1005 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front crosses the area today, bringing scattered
showers. Much cooler temperatures arrive tonight into tomorrow
behind the cold front. A coastal low develops off the Southeast
coast this weekend, resulting in the potential for heavy rain
and breezy conditions for eastern portions of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1005 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered rain showers (and a few rumbles of thunder) are expected
into the early afternoon with clearing skies late.

- A much cooler airmass builds into the region tonight.

A cold front is just west of the forecast area as of mid-morning
sfc analysis. Rain showers out ahead of the front have shifted
to southeastern counties as of latest radar. Still cannot rule
out a rumble of thunder later this morning into this afternoon.
The front should be offshore by early to mid afternoon with
clearing expected from NW to SE. High temperatures today will
range from the low- mid 70s north to around 80 south. It becomes
breezy later this afternoon and evening in the wake of the
front, especially along the coast, with N winds gusting to ~25
to 30 mph.

Skies clear this evening/tonight, with gusty north winds continuing
along the coast. Strong high pressure will also be building into the
area from the north. Much cooler tonight with temperatures dropping
back into the mid 40s (lower 40s possible for the typically cooler
spots) NW to the mid-upper 50s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Much cooler and dry weather is expected Thursday and Friday.

- Patchy frost is possible across portions of Louisa and Fluvanna
counties Friday morning as temperatures fall back into the 30s.

High pressure builds N/NW of the region on Thursday. Much cooler on
with temperatures only in the 60s for most of the area (around 70
closer to the Albemarle Sound). Skies will range from sunny to
mostly sunny, but it will remain breezy out of the NE (especially
closer to the coast). It will be a chilly night Thursday night, with
low temperatures dropping back into the upper 30s across our NW
counties to the low to mid 50s across the SE. The latest NBM 25th
percentile has trended cooler, with low-mid 30s across much of the
NW Piedmont and the NBM 10th now showing some readings around
freezing. Given this, have introduced a bit of patchy frost for
portions of western Louisa and Fluvanna Friday AM. Frost Advisories
will likely be needed for at least these areas. Will note that this
is on track with the fall median (50%) first potential frost for
Louisa which is ironically 10/10 (10/12 for Palmyra). See the "Fall
First Frost and Freeze Dates" on our website for more specifics.

On Friday, strong high pressure ~1030+ mb high pressure will be
centered north of the local area over southern New England.
Meanwhile, further to the south off the coast of FL/GA, an area of
low pressure begins to develop which will likely have impacts to the
local area as we head into the weekend. Remaining cool and dry on
Friday with high temperatures again in the 60s for much of the area.
Not quite as chilly Friday night as cloud cover begins to increase
in advance of the coastal low pressure, lows will range from the 40s
NW to the upper 50s-lower 60s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- There is increasing confidence that a strong coastal system will
impact the region this weekend into early next week. Heavy rain,
gusty winds, and significant coastal/marine impacts are all
possible.

The 00z model guidance has started to come into better agreement
with a strong coastal system impacting the region this weekend and
likely lingering into Monday. Heavy rain will be possible with this
system, with WPC already highlighting eastern portions of our area
(including all of Hampton Roads) in a Day 4 Marginal ERO and a Day 5
Slight ERO. Both the 00z GEFS and EPS already show 1 to 3" of QPF
across the eastern half of the area Saturday night into Monday.
Current NBM PoPs are also likely too low, only ~40-50% along the
coast, Saturday night into early Monday, but these will continue to
trend up as model confidence increases. In addition to the heavy
rain threat, it will also be windy with wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph
already in the forecast along the immediate coast (highest Sunday-
Sunday night). Finally significant coastal and marine impacts are
possible, see the Marine and Tides and Coastal Flooding sections of
the discussion below for more details.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Wednesday...

A cold front is approaching from the NW, with thickening clouds
and light rain showers  ahead of the front. Clouds will thicken
and lower from W-E through this morning, with CIGs lowering to
MVFR at all terminals by midday/early afternoon as the front
approaches, with a brief period of IFR possible at SBY (low
confidence). Scattered showers will continue across the area
through the first half of the day with the best chances of VSBY
restrictions being at SBY (where moderate to briefly heavy rain
is possible). The front crosses the terminals from N-S during
the afternoon and evening, allowing winds to become N at ~15 kt
with gusts up to 25 kt. There is a 20% chance of a thunderstorm
at ORF/ECG between 17-22z, but not enough confidence to add a
PROB30 group with thunder in the TAFs. Skies clear from NW to
SE in the wake of the front, returning to VFR at all locations
by 00z.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions Thursday, but a breezy NNE wind
continues at the coast. Another period of sub-VFR CIGs are
likely as we head into this weekend as low pressure develops
offshore.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters through
  at least Thursday as a cold front crosses the waters this
  afternoon.

- Low pressure develops south of the area this weekend. While
  uncertainty remains, dangerous marine conditions likely
  develop later Saturday into early next week with Gale to Storm
  conditions likely.

High pressure is retreating further offshore this morning as a cold
front approaches the waters from the W. Southerly winds range from
10-15 kt in the southern Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters to 15-20
kt in the northern waters. Wind gusts have generally been between 15
and 25 kt, highest N. Small Craft Advisories have been expanded to
include the entire Chesapeake Bay (except at the mouth) for
these southerly winds this morning. Offshore, winds should gust
to 20-25 kt over the northern coastal waters for a decent period
this morning, but seas have stayed and are forecast to remain
in the 3-4 ft range. Therefore, continue to hold off on
headlines for the first part of today here.

The cold front is forecast to drop southward through the waters
this afternoon, bringing a wind shift to the N, along with a
quick increase in winds. Strong Small Craft Advisory winds
continue to be the most likely scenario with a continued
potential for a brief period of gale-force gusts during the
10PM-2AM period this evening/early tonight when post-frontal
pressure rises and cold/dry advection will be maximized. Local
wind probs are below 10% for frequent gale-force gusts, so will
refrain from any Gale Warnings. In the wake of the cold front, a
compressed pressure gradient will prevail, especially for the
southern half of the area with anomalously strong high pressure
to our north and lower pressures offshore of the Carolinas.
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect and/or have been
extended through most of Thursday, with extensions through
Saturday in the coastal waters S of Cape Charles. Otherwise, a
reprieve from the wind is possible for the middle/upper bay and
adjacent rivers from late Thursday into Saturday. Seas are
forecast to build to 5-6 ft by tonight and then 6-8 ft by
Thursday, with locally higher seas S.

Forecast uncertainty continues for this weekend. However, there
remains agreement across nearly all deterministic and ensemble
model guidance that low pressure develops along the stalled
front/coastal trough Saturday, drifting north or northeast near
or just offshore of our coastline Sunday into Monday. The track
and strength of the low show considerable variation among and
within the global deterministic and ensemble solutions,
respectively. The latest GFS and ECMWF show the low lifting
north and strengthening on Sunday and doing some kind of
pirouette near the coast as the low occludes on Monday. Either
of these solutions would result in a prolonged period of
significant marine impacts. The latest 00z/08 Canadian has also
jumped on board. In summary, while uncertainty remains, there
appears to a bit more clarity with this forecast update. Have
continued the trend from the previous forecast and increased
winds a few more kt later Saturday into Monday. This now brings
Storm conditions to the VA and MD coastal waters with gusts to
50 kt and strong Gale conditions elsewhere, including the
Chesapeake Bay, with gusts to 40-45 kt. While it is too early
for headlines, these may need to be considered over the coming
days. Additionally, seas are forecast to build to at least
10-15+ ft with waves 6-9 ft near the mouth of the Chesapeake.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 310 AM EDT Wednesday...

No coastal flooding is expected through tonight. Given the high
astronomical tides and moderately strong NE winds, minor
flooding is possible in areas adjacent to the lower Ches Bay and
tidal York/James on Thursday and Friday. Additional coastal
flooding is possible this weekend, depending on the track and
strength of coastal low pressure.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
     Friday for ANZ634-638-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ635.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ636-637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB/AC
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RHR/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...