391
FXUS61 KAKQ 111850
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
250 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore gradually drifts south through the week,
allowing for a warmer, more humid airmass to move into place. Daily
chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms continue
through the week with lower chances this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms are expected across southeast Virginia
  and northeast North Carolina this afternoon.

- Locally heavy rain and flooding is possible.

Aloft, an upper level ridge remains centered over New England into
Canada. At the surface, high pressure remains centered off the Mid
Atlantic coast with a coastal trough along the Southeast coast.
Temps as of 1 PM were generally in the lower 80s across the region
with mostly cloudy skies present. Scattered showers and storms have
already begun to develop across S/SE VA and NE NC with the greatest
coverage in NE NC. These showers/storms have been nearly stationary
given weak shear aloft and PWATs of 2-2.2". As such, locally heavy
rainfall will continue to be possible through this afternoon, mainly
S of I-64, as with the best chance across SE VA and NE NC. Locally 2-
3" of rain is possible which may cause localized flooding. WPC has
maintained a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall across this area
today to account for the potential. Showers and storms taper off
this evening with the loss of diurnal instability. However,
widespread cloud cover lingers through tonight with at least partial
clearing across N portions of the FA. Additionally, some patchy fog
is possible overnight and into Tue morning across portions of the
Piedmont and far N portions of the FA where any partial clearing
occurs. Otherwise highs today in the low-mid 80s and lows tonight
in the upper 60s to lower 70s are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures and humidity increases Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Daily chances for scattered showers and storms continues.
  Locally heavy rainfall is possible.

Aloft, the ridge across New England into Canada gradually breaks
down by mid week. At the surface, high pressure offshore slowly
drifts S through mid week. As such, heat and humidity increases each
day with highs in the mid-upper 80s Tue and Wed (some locations may
approach 90F Wed). Dew point also rise into the 70s which will allow
for maximum heat indices to increase to ~95F Tue and Wed.
Additionally, scattered showers and storms are possible both days
with the best chance across S VA/ NE NC Tue (45-55% PoPs) and a more
widespread coverage on Wed (45-55% PoPs). While not everyone will
receive rain, locally 1-3" of rain is possible each day with
localized flooding possible. WPC has a Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall across far S VA/ NE NC on Tue and across the entire FA on
Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonably warm weather continues through the weekend and into early
  next week.

- Low-end rain chances continue into Sat.

A ridge over FL builds through the weekend across the E CONUS.
Meanwhile, high pressure lingers over the Southeast. This will allow
for seasonably warm conditions to continue with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s each day and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Rain chances decrease by late week into the weekend to 30-40% Thu,
25-30% Fri, and 15-25% Sat (mainly across the Piedmont). Dry weather
is expected on Sun with a low chance for rain returning by Mon (15-
25% PoPs).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Monday...

Afternoon analysis shows surface high pressure off the coast with E
to SE low level winds allowing moisture to increase across the
region. Showers with some embedded thunder are noted over the SE
terminals (ECG, ORF, PHF). Have included PROB30 groups at these
sites for the next few hours to cover local flight restrictions.
Think the majority of the convection will feature MVFR CIGs and VSBY
but brief departures into IFR are possible under the heaviest
showers/storms. Focus for convection shifts inland by late afternoon
but should be far enough south to not impact RIC. Winds become light
and variable tonight. Guidance suggests widespread IFR CIGs tonight
with some fog also possible, especially west of the main terminals
in the Piedmont.

Outlook: Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and
storms continue through the week. MVFR CIGs will continue to be
possible through the week with potentially IFR CIGs and/or VIS
(due to fog) possible near sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A Moderate Risk for rip currents continues across all beaches through
  early evening, with a Moderate Risk across the southern
  beaches on Tuesday.

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the week.

High pressure continues to slowly shift offshore this afternoon.
Local winds are E at 5-10 kt with 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves. The
area of high pressure is progged to gradually build SE over the
next few days, allowing for generally benign marine conditions.
Winds remain E-SE and increase to 10-15 kt late this
afternoon/evening before becoming S tonight and diminishing back
to 5-10 kt. Winds remain SW to SE through early Thu with a
return to light (5-10 kt) onshore flow by Fri. Waves and seas
remain generally 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively through the
week.

Moderate rip current risk to includes all beaches through 8pm this
evening. The Moderate rip current risk persists across the S beaches
on Tuesday due to lingering shore-normal swell and 2-3 ft seas. Will
note that the periods increase to 9-10 seconds on Tue across all
beaches. As such, the Moderate rip current risk may need to be
expanded to include the N beaches. The rip risk drops to low at all
area beaches on Wed.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...ERI/RHR