829
FXUS61 KAKQ 221957
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
257 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and mainly dry conditions prevail from tonight through
the end of the week, but well below normal temperatures linger
across the region. The only possible exception to the dry
weather is a slight chance of freezing rain across far southeast
portions of the area on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 240 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Mostly clear and cold tonight with high pressure over the region.

- Additional Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for the entire
  area.

The upper shortwave that was responsible for the snow this
morning/yesterday has pushed to the SE of the local area. Skies have
cleared out over the vast majority of the FA early this afternoon
with the exception of a bay streamer across VA Beach. It is very
cold with temps only in the 20s. Dry wx is expected to continue
through tonight as high pressure settles over the region. Lows are
forecast to drop into the single digits to mid teens under a mostly
clear sky. Additional Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for
the entire FA. While it may be a couple degrees above cold weather
criteria in some of our central/NW zones where the threshold is
5F...will go ahead and issue for the areas anyway for a more uniform
message. Expect apparent temps to fall aob 10F in nearly all of SE
VA/NE NC (especially given the fresh snow cover).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures remain below average but slightly modify late this
  week.

- There is a low-end chance for freezing rain/freezing drizzle
  across far SE VA and NE NC Thursday morning-early afternoon.
  While confidence is too low to issue a Winter Weather
  Advisory at this time, trends will be monitored.

A weak low pressure system still looks to develop along a coastal
trough Thursday to our S, and the NAMNest remains the most
aggressive with any precip across extreme SE VA/NE NC during the
morning-early aftn. Almost all of the other guidance shows the
entire area of precip remaining offshore. Will maintain 20-30% PoPs
for continuity for some additional wintry precipitation (probably
FZRA given how shallow the moisture is) across these areas. If
FZRA/FZDZ does fall Thursday morning across our far SE zones...it
would be impactful since temps will be well below freezing. If
things do trend in that direction, a short fused Winter Wx Advisory
may be needed (most likely timing would be 7 AM-noon). Thursday`s
highs remain chilly and in the 30s. Cold w/ light wind Thu night
with lows in the mid teens-lower 20s. Temps moderate a bit on Fri
(w/ continued dry wx despite a shortwave tracking over the FA) with
forecast highs in the mid 30s-lower 40s. That shortwave moves
offshore Fri night as sfc high pressure settles in. Still quite cold
Fri night with forecast lows in the teens in most areas. Temps
moderate a bit more on Sat as the high moves to our SE (but will
still be below average and in the upper 30s-lower 40s for most).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 257 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry conditions are expected through early next week with
  moderating temperatures.

After a long stretch of well below normal temperatures, warmer
temperatures are finally on the horizon for the local area. High
pressure will build across the region on Saturday and will really
kick-start this warming trend. Winds and increasing cloud cover on
Saturday night will limit the potential for much radiational
cooling, and lows will drop into the mid to upper 20s. Temperatures
will remain moderate during the day on Sunday, with slightly above
normal temperatures forecast for the area. Cloud cover will
gradually increase on Sunday as a cold front approaches from the
west. The shallow surface front will slowly inch towards the Mid-
Atlantic coast Sunday night through Monday, which will shove the
aforementioned high into the western North Atlantic. Overnight lows
will only drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s Sunday night ahead of
the frontal boundary. A weak wave aloft associated with the surface
front could enhance precipitation chances as it dips across the
region Monday morning, but confidence is lower in if this will play
out, as well as the p-type if any precipitation does materialize.
Have decided to maintain chance PoPs for Monday for the time being.

The cold front will move through on Monday evening/overnight. Behind
the front, a major airmass change is not expected like we saw with
the last frontal passage. Temperatures and dew points will drop a
few degrees, but will quickly rebound back into the upper 40s to
lower to mid 50s Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected
through at least mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 18z/22 TAF
period with mostly clear skies through tonight as high pressure
builds in from the NW. Winds become light tonight with the high
building in. Weak low pressure tracks off the coast Thursday,
bringing clouds and a minimal (15-20%) chc of FZRA at ORF and
ECG from 12-18z. CIGs fall to 3000-5000ft at ORF/ECG by 12-15z
Thu...with mainly clear skies elsewhere. High pressure and VFR
conditions prevail Thursday night through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 125 PM EST Wednesday...

- Gradually improving conditions as high pressure builds in.
  Remaining SCAs come down later today.

- Light freezing spray possible tonight into tomorrow due to
  very cold air temps.

- Sub-SCAs expected tonight through the end of the week.

Strong high pressure (1034mb) building in over the region is leading
to gradually improving conditions across the local marine zones.
Latest obs indicate northerly winds generally 10-15kt across
northern waters (and the rivers) with 15-20kt over the lower bay and
southern coastal waters. Have allowed SCAs to expire for the middle
and upper bay zones, the Lower James, and coastal waters N of Cape
Charles. Seas for the southern waters are 5-8ft, so the SCAs
continue into this evening. Seas N of Cape Charles are around 4ft.
Waves are 2-3ft for most of the bay, 3-4ft in the mouth of the bay.
With the winds diminishing, the threat for freezing spray diminishes
as well. The advisory for the bay should be able to expire later
this afternoon. Despite lighter winds expected tonight, very cold
temps will still allow for light freezing spray in the bay, and to a
lesser extent in the rivers and immediately near the coast on the
Eastern Shore. N/NE winds continue to diminish into tonight,
becoming 5-10kt by late this evening. Seas continue to diminish
overnight, becoming 2-3ft by early tomorrow morning. Waves will be 1-
2ft overnight. Benign marine conditions then continue through
tomorrow and tomorrow night as high pressure remains in place. Will
likely see at least a small increase in winds on Late Thursday night
into Friday as weak low pressure passes by offshore. Current
forecast calls for Sub-SCA, however, at 10-15kt starting early
Friday morning. Benign conditions expected through the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strong northerly flow remains persistent throughout today as an
Arctic high pressure ushers in the cold and dry air. This has
allowed water to be pushed out of portions of the currituck sound.
Latest tidal observations have shown multiple area falling into low
water level advisory. The areas of interest are just north of the
town of currituck. With these areas falling into LWA criteria a LWA
has been issued for the currituck sound through Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for MDZ021>025.
NC...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
     095>100-509>525.
MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ632>634.
     Low Water Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...