120
FXUS61 KAKQ 041011
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
611 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts offshore later this morning into this
afternoon. A cold front approaches from the west this evening into
tonight, bringing a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms. A
stronger cold front crosses the area late Saturday into Sunday. High
pressure builds north of the area Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front approaches this afternoon, bringing a chance of
shower and thunderstorms across primarily NW portions of the area.

- A few storms may be strong or severe with damaging wind gusts
being the main threat.

Early this morning, high pressure is centered just south of the
local area. Meanwhile, low pressure is centered north of the Great
Lakes with a cold front extending south into the Ohio Valley. Skies
are mainly clear with only a few mid level clouds over far western
portions of the area. Temperatures are warmer than previous
mornings, with readings generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The front will approach from the west while also slowing down along
the Appalachians by this afternoon. Ahead of the approaching cold
front, isolated to showers or thunderstorms will be possible, mainly
during the afternoon-evening timeframe. 00z CAMs, in general, aren`t
overly excited in regards to the shower/storm chances with many
showing a broken line of (weakening) convection approaching from the
west. Still, areas of NW of Richmond will have the best chance to
see thunderstorms with 30-50% PoPs in the forecast. A few storms may
be on the stronger side with damaging wind gusts being the primary
threat due to decent low-level lapse rates. However, the main
limiting factor include is instability, with SBCAPE values averaging
~500 to 750 J/kg. Still, SPC has kept much of the area along-west of
I-95 (and up to the Northern Neck) in a marginal risk of severe
weather today. Temperatures will be warmer (and more humid) compared
to previous days with highs expected to reach the mid to upper 80s
for most areas (upper 70s to lower 80s for the Eastern Shore).

Shower and storm chances diminish fairly quickly after sunrise this
evening, though a few linger showers/storms are possible up until
midnight for mainly northern portions of the area. The cold front
likely falls apart before it is able to truly cross the tonight into
early Friday morning. Mild tonight with lows generally in the low to
upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer temperatures are expected on Friday and Saturday with highs
in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday ahead
of a much stronger cold front.

Warm/dry weather is expected for Friday with winds remaining out of
the S-SW. Friday will likely be the warmest day since mid August
with temperatures hovering around 90 for many areas. It also remains
mild into Friday night, with lows generally in the upper 60s to
around 70. By Saturday, another strong low pressure system moves NE
out of the Midwest and Great Lakes region across NE Canada. A strong
cold front associated with this system will approach and cross the
area during the day on Saturday. Additional chances of showers and
storms will be possible ahead and with the frontal passage on
Saturday. Coverage will likely be more widespread than what we see
later today. Strong to severe storms will also be possible with bulk
shear ~25 to 30 knots, steep low-level lapse rates, and MLCAPE
likely in excess of 1000 J/kg. Similar to today, damaging wind
gusts would be the main threat with any stronger storm. Saturday
will be a degree or two warmer compared to Friday, with highs
ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. The front pushes
through the area by Saturday night with lows falling back into
the 60s (upper 50s NW).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler weather returns Sunday into early next week.

The cold front from Saturday will likely be stalled just offshore on
Sunday as strong high pressure begins to build in from the NW.
Additional showers and isolated storms cannot be ruled out Sunday,
especially further E/SE. Temperatures will be drastically cooler
compared to Saturday with highs only in the lower to mid 70s
for most (upper 70s far SE). High pressure continues to build
into the area Monday/Tuesday with the coastal trough also
shifting a bit further offshore. Both Monday and Tuesday appear
to be dry, fall- like days with temperatures only in the 70s.
Temperatures will continue to run below average for the
remainder of the period. Rain chances may increase across far SE
portions of the area Wednesday as moisture rides along the
stalled coastal trough.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 610 AM EDT Thursday...

Outside of localized patchy for (mainly at ECG), primarily VFR
conditions are expected through the 12z TAF period. Starting the
morning with mainly clear skies, similar to the past few days,
afternoon CU develops with the best coverage away from the
coast. Additionally, isolated to scattered showers and storms
are possible later this afternoon into the early evening with
locally strong winds possible (best coverage north and west of
RIC). Confidence in any storms reaching RIC is low. There is a
PROB30 for showers at RIC at this time after 00z. S winds
increase to 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt this afternoon
across the area ahead of an approaching cold front.

Outlook: Dry/VFR on Friday, with a chance of isolated to
scattered afternoon/evening storms at all terminals on
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A period of elevated southerly winds is likely late this afternoon
into the overnight across the Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal
waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected over the bay.

- A Moderate Rip Current Risk is in effect for all area beaches
Thursday.

High pressure is located along the coast early this morning as a
cold front well NW of the area slowly approaches. Southerly winds
are generally 5-10kt as of latest obs, though a few sites in the
upper bay are 10-15kt. Seas are sitting at ~3ft and waves in the
bay/rivers are 1-2ft. As the front moves closer to the area, the
tightening pressure gradient ahead of it will lead to increasing S
wind. By early afternoon, expecting most locations to be seeing 10-
15kt. Then, increasing to 15-20kt in the bay and coastal waters
during the late afternoon and evening. Waves pick up to 2-3ft and
seas to around 4ft. SCAs are in effect for the bay starting mid
afternoon through early Friday morning. Opted not to raise SCAs for
the coastal waters, though there is potential for an hour or two of
gusts of 25kt and 5ft seas off the Eastern Shore this evening. SW
winds diminish to 10-15kt early Friday morning.

A series of cold front is expected going into the weekend, leading
to several periods of elevated winds. Both Friday and Saturday
evening will have a period of southerly winds ~15kt in the
bay/rivers and 15-20kt over coastal waters. At this point, it does
not appear SCAs will be needed for these surges. A stronger front is
forecast to pass through late in the weekend. Went with the higher
side of guidance for the northerly winds behind the front, since
guidance tends to be too low when cooler, drier air moves in over
the warm waters this time of year. SCAs will likely be needed for at
least the bay Sunday into Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 255 AM EDT Thursday...

Tidal anomalies increase as S winds increase this evening, reaching
1-1.5 feet above normal by tonight`s high tide cycle. Some nuisance
to minor flooding will be possible Friday morning, again mainly in
the upper Bay. The highest high tide looks to be tonight, with minor
to near moderate flood thresholds possible at Bishops Head.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Friday for ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/HET
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/HET
LONG TERM...AJB/HET
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...