651
FXUS61 KAKQ 092346
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
646 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected through early Sunday. Rain showers are
likely Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon, though aerial
rain totals remain light. Mainly and seasonable weather is
expected for most of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 250 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler and dry tonight.

This afternoon, the cold front from earlier today has now pushed
well south of the local area with cool ~1030mb high pressure
building into the area. A very dry airmass is pushing into the area
with dewpoints in the 10s to 20s across the MD Eastern Shore and 20s
to 30s elsewhere (40s far SE). As a result, have an increased fire
danger for the MD Eastern Shore this afternoon, but conditions
should continue to improve as winds decrease. Temperatures this
afternoon are generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Mainly clear skies to start the night tonight, but high clouds will
begin to increase later in the night as another frontal system
begins to approach from the west. Temperatures likely drop off
quickly just after sunset due to the dry airmass and remain steady
during the second half of the night with the increasing clouds. Lows
will drop back into the mid to upper 30s inland and low to mid 40s
closer to the coast (due to a light onshore wind). Not anticipating
any frost tonight due to the dry airmass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered to numerous (mainly light) showers are likely later
Sunday into Monday. Rain totals generally look to stay below 0.25".

- Drying out Monday night into Tuesday.

A weak cold front will advance eastward through the MS and OH River
Valleys Sunday. Aloft, a shortwave tracks ENE from the upper Midwest
states into the Great Lakes and eventually into New England. This
system will bring the potential for showers for most of the area
from later Sunday through the first part of Monday. With the primary
upper disturbance/vort max tracking well N of the area, we are still
not expecting much in the way of significant and/or beneficial
rainfall. Dry weather is expected to continue through Sunday morning
into early Sunday afternoon, but clouds will be on the increase with
mostly cloudy to overcast skies expected. Rain chances increase
later Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, especially across our
northwestern counties, as the front begins to approach from the
west. The highest rain chances will be Sunday night into Monday
morning with broad synoptic ascent downstream of the upper trough
axis. Showers will linger across the SE half of the area into Monday
afternoon, with drying across the NW as the front pushes southeast.
Total rainfall from this system is still looking unimpressive, with
amounts of generally 0.25" or less. Slightly higher amounts are
possible across far SE VA into NE NC. Drying out Monday night with
mostly sunny skies expected for Tuesday as high pressure returns.

Temperatures will range from around 60 NW to the lower 70s SE on
Sunday. With any appreciable cold advection delayed until behind the
front Monday night, highs Monday rebound to mild levels in SW flow
and currently look to be in the mid 70s areawide. Cooler on Tuesday
in the wake of the front with highs generally in the low to mid 60s
(upper 60s far SE). Lows Sunday and Monday night in the mid-upper
50s and mid 40s-mid 50s (coolest Piedmont and MD Eastern Shore),
respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonable temperatures and mainly dry through most of next week.

High pressure builds to our north for the middle of next week,
keeping dry and mostly sunny conditions in place. Highs in the upper
50s to lower 60s Wednesday. Lows on Tuesday night in the mid to
upper 30s inland, 40s closer to the coast. Lows Wednesday night
generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland and mid to upper 40s
closer to the coast.

There still looks to be a potent upper trough that will dive out of
Canada and the upper Midwest later Wednesday. At the surface, a cold
front will also move eastward toward the area. However, trends in
the guidance have kept the trough less amplified and positively
tilted compared to the neutral tilt shown in earlier runs. Thus,
rain chances still look fairly low, with the best chances north of
the local area. PoPs are in the slight chance category Wednesday
night into Thursday. With the limited rainfall chances, would expect
the drought conditions to expand and intensify further.

A tad milder Thursday ahead of the front with highs in the mid-upper
60s. Seasonable highs in the 60s continue Friday into the weekend.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s, with some upper 30s
possible in the cooler spots.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 PM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions across area terminals are expected through the
00z/10 TAF period. Winds out of the E-NE have gradually
diminished as expected this evening, as transient high pressure
briefly builds across the area. Some SCT-BKN cirrus have moved
across the area this evening, with high clouds to thicken later
tonight, then gradually through Sunday ahead of an approaching
cold front.

Outlook: A chance for showers develops by late Sunday afternoon
and continues Sunday night into Monday morning ahead of an
approaching cold front. Degraded flight conditions are possible
later Sunday night into Monday, before another frontal passage
Monday brings clearing and a return to VFR conditions later
Monday through the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Atlantic waters as
  seas slowly subside this evening.

- Additional Small Craft Advisories are likely for at least the
  mid and upper Chesapeake Bay along with the adjacent coastal
  waters late Sunday into early Monday.

1030mb high pressure is centered over western NY this afternoon.
Winds have decreased rapidly from this morning and are now
generally NNE at 10-15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt (especially
S). Waves are 2-3 ft in the bay with seas 4-5 ft N and 5-7 ft S.

SCA headlines for the bay have been allowed to expire on schedule
this afternoon as winds continue to diminish. Headlines for the
Currituck Sound and northern coastal waters are set to expire
at 4pm but have extended the northern OBX SCAs into tonight as
seas will be slow to drop below 5 ft. High pressure moves over
the region on Sunday with benign boating conditions. The surface
high moves offshore late Sunday with winds becoming SW and
increasing to 15-20 kt for the middle/northern Ches Bay and
20-25 kt for the coastal waters north of Chincoteague.
Conditions to the south of these areas will be on the cusp of
SCA thresholds but the trend in the guidance today has been
towards slightly stronger SW winds Sunday evening into early
Monday. Waves briefly build to 2-3 ft late Sunday as seas
increase to 3-4 ft S and 4-5 ft N. The next cold front sweeps
through the region early Tuesday with winds becoming NW and
increasing to ~20 kt. Another front is likely to impact the
area late this week with the potential for additional SCA
headlines.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...RHR