115
FXUS61 KAKQ 121053
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
653 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving low pressure brings a period of unsettled weather
through midweek, especially from this afternoon through
Tuesday evening. Conditions turn warm, with summerlike heat and
humidity Friday and Saturday, and mainly afternoon and evening
showers and storms possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry tonight, other than a few light showers from south
  central VA to interior NE NC early this evening.

- Rain overspreads the region from SW to NE Monday, with
  moderate to locally heavy rain possible across the piedmont.

The latest WX analysis indicates strong (~1030mb) sfc high
pressure centered across southern New England, with a weak sfc
trough draped across the Delmarva from the MD lower Eastern
Shore back NW into the eastern and upper Great Lakes. While high
clouds continue to thicken and lower over the region, we`re still
mainly dry locally other than a few light showers over the
coastal plain of E/SE NC. The sfc high to our N has kept us dry
for now, but just as 00z RAOBs show PWs have increased to
1.3"-1.6" at GSO/MHX respectively, expect PWs quickly increase
through the day today, courtesy of increasing SSW flow aloft.
Expect PWs to increase to 1.50"-1.75" across most of the CWA by
aftn.

Showers will be possible over our far S-SW zones toward sunrise
Monday morning, as better forcing arrives from the SW. CAMs
showing additional showers lifting NNW across the VA piedmont
later this morning with increasing SSE low level jet around 30
kt lifting into the area by midday. As better dPVA and diffluent
flow aloft lifts across the NC coastal plain, expect showers,
move east to the I-95 corridor by the early to mid aftn. Have
maintained 70-90% PoPs along and W of I-95 by late afternoon.
Some elevated instability does look to lift across the piedmont
this afternoon, so while severe weather is not anticipated, some
rumbles of thunder are possible. Best forcing/overrunning
moisture doesn`t reach the eastern shore until late this
evening into the overnight hours, and continue to delay PoPs in
the far eastern portion of the area until after 00z/Tue.

Given the lowering clouds and incoming rain, expect that temps
likely struggle to get much above 70F over the SW piedmont
counties, with mid to upper 70s along and E of I-95 where PoPs
remain lower most of the day. While some heavy rain is possible
this afternoon (mainly W of I-95 and over interior NE NC), a
more widespread moderate to heavy rain appears more likely
tonight as the low level jet and best lift look to spread
farther to the east. Given this timing, and with rather high
flash flood guidance given relatively dry antecedent conditions,
have decided against a Flood Watch for now, with the Day 2 ERO
Slight more due to expected rain between 00Z Tue-12Z Tue for
most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Periods of rain are expected from tonight through Tuesday
  night. Confidence continues to increase that much of the
  region will see a period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall
  during this period.

Tonight-Tue:

Heaviest rain for the upcoming rain comes late tonight into
Tuesday for much of the area, extending into Tuesday evening for
the Eastern Shore. Likely to categorical PoPs continue. The
closed low over the deep south gradually opens up, but moves
slowly into the lower OH Valley by Tuesday night. The attendant
surface low lifts slowly over the mid-south tonight into
Tuesday, while secondary low pressure develops over the western
Carolina. That low then slips NE early Tuesday, reaching central
VA by late Tuesday night. The heaviest rainfall is expected to
overrun the subtle boundary as it lifts north across the region
late tomorrow into Tuesday. Numerous showers (and perhaps a few
tstms) are expected Monday night through Tuesday evening. As
PWs rise to 1.6-1.8" area- wide, expect widespread rain amounts
on the order of 1-2" or more, with heaviest totals expected to
be over the SW third of the area from Louisa to South central VA
to Edenton. Integrated Water Transport values of 750-900 kg/ms
lift across the area as the boundary slips northward Tuesday,
which along with the strong isentropic overrunning likely
portends the heaviest totals to come during the day on Tuesday.
Given these expected rainfall amounts in addition to rainfall
from today/tonight, would expect that at least isolated
instances of flash flooding will be an ascending concern on
Tuesday, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. The WPC
Day 2 Excessive Rainfall outlook has a Slight Risk for all of
the CWA west of the Chesapeake Bay Tuesday, while maintaining a
Marginal Risk over the Eastern Shore. The latest QPF forecast
through 12Z/Wed still averages 2-3" over the SW third of the
area, with locally higher totals likely. Lower totals averaging
1.5-2.5" for the rest of the CWA (and ~1" for the MD eastern
shore). Highs Tuesday in the upper 60s well inland, and low to
mid 70s elsewhere.

Tue night into Wed:

The upper low will weaken into an open wave off to our NW. At
the surface, low pressure lifts into the northern mid-Atlantic
and a mid-level dry slot lifts across the SE coastal plain from
the Carolinas, allowing showers to taper off briefly Tue night
into Wed morning. However, while the mid-level flow does weaken
(0-6 km bulk shear is 20-25kt at best), expect more scattered to
numerous coverage of showers/storms rather than the widespread
rain of Tuesday. With that said, the cold pool aloft could help
set off a few strong tstms Wed aftn/evening, even with the weak
bulk shear. Highs upper 70s to lower 80s Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Still a chance for a few showers/storms Thursday, but the
  coverage will be lower than earlier in the week.

- Summerlike warmth and humidity Friday and Saturday, with
  diurnal tstms possible. Slightly cooler and with lower
  humidity by Sunday.

Building ridging upstream should allow for a pattern change
toward warmer temperatures and perhaps a few diurnally-driven
showers storms Thu-Fri afternoon (closer to climo norms). With
building heights aloft, and increasingly southerly flow, highs
trend into the upper 80s/around 90F Fri-Sat. Dewpoints remain
elevated, more typical of summer (upper 60s to lower 70s) which
will lead to heat indices potentially into the mid-upper 90s. A
front looks to approach from the west by later Saturday, with
increasing rain chances Saturday afternoon and evening. Dry and
still warm, but with lower humidity in the wake of the front
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions across all terminals gradually degrades to MVFR
later this morning and this afternoon over inland terminals,
with the progression to sub-VFR taking a bit longer along the
coast and especially at KSBY. Winds are light and variable at
sunrise, becoming E-SE 7-10 kt from late morning through the
rest of the period. Gradually deteriorating CIGs are expected to
spread from SW to NE after from mid to late morning at RIC to
early afternoon at ORF/PHF/ECG. Showers also move in from the
W-SW this morning, potentially bringing MVFR VSBY by afternoon.
SBY is expected to remain VFR through the 12z TAF period, with
MVFR conditions developing late this evening or more likely
Tuesday morning.

Outlook: Flight restrictions are likely at all of the terminals
other than SBY by this evening. MVFR CIGs degrade to IFR late
this evening into early Tuesday, as a warm front lifts through
the region. Periodic VSBY restrictions will be possible in
heavier showers late tonight and Tuesday. Looking ahead, another
round of showers and storms will be possible on Wed aftn/evening,
with a few stronger storms possible. A lower coverage of late
day showers Thu- Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-Small Craft Advisory marine conditions today.

- Widespread Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Tuesday
  and Tuesday night with increased SE winds and elevated
  waves/seas.

High pressure extends from the Northeast to Bermuda early this
morning, allowing for light SE winds across the local waters with
waves/seas aob 2 ft. SE winds increase some to 10-15 kt across all
waters later today as the pressure gradient begins to tighten in
association with a frontal boundary and low pressure system
approaching from the SW. Waves 1-2ft; seas 2-3 ft.

SCA conditions likely develop by daybreak Tuesday across the
southern coastal waters, lower Ches Bay and Currituck Sound as SE
winds increase to around 20 kt. Winds increase for the remainder of
the local waters into Tuesday afternoon but likely hold off in
reaching SCA criteria north of Parramore Island until late
afternoon. These winds will then persist through late Tuesday
evening or the first half of Tuesday night. With the increasing SE
flow, seas will also build to 5-7 ft by Tuesday afternoon/evening.
In the Bay, waves will reach 3-4 ft and up to 5 ft at the mouth.
Went ahead and issued SCAs for the all of the local waters, except
the coastal waters north of Parramore, with this morning`s forecast
package. SCAs for the coastal waters south of Cape Charles, the
Currituck Sound and the Ches Bay south of New Pt Comfort begin at 6
am Tues. The remainder of the SCAs begin later Tues morning...to
around midday for the rivers. Most SCA conditions will be over by
early Wed morning as winds lessen and waves/seas subside. However,
5ft seas may linger north of Parramore Island into Wed afternoon.
SCAs north of Parramore Island will be issued later today given that
we still have 30+ hrs before the onset of any SCA conditions.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected for all waters by late Wednesday
through the rest of the week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ630-631-638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 1 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 PM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 10 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...MAM/RHR
MARINE...JDM