439
FXUS61 KAKQ 070757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
257 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures are again expected today. Isolated to
scattered showers are possible this afternoon into tonight. A
better chance for showers arrives Sunday afternoon through
Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered showers are expected this afternoon through
tonight, with a thunderstorm or two also possible.

- Highs around 80 degrees are expected again today.

High pressure at the sfc and aloft remains centered well offshore of
the Mid Atlantic/SE coast while a cold front extending from the OH
Valley NE to the nrn Mid-Atlantic continues to slowly approach the
area. It`s overcast and somewhat humid for early November with
temps/dew pts in the 60s. The cold front is progged to continue to
approach today before crossing the area from north to south this
evening-tonight. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave will rotate around the
west side of the offshore ridge, and track across the area. While it
will remain mostly cloudy (with perhaps an isolated shower)
throughout the day, highs will still be around 80F, which is near
daily records. See Climate section below.

Slightly better (30-40%) chances arrive this aftn into tonight, as
the actual front crosses the FA from north to south. In fact, there
may be enough instability ahead of the front for an isolated tstm or
two. The highest precip chances will be across central/SE VA...where
areal average amounts of 0.10-0.25" are possible. If we do see
isolated tstms (which is still highly uncertain), locally higher
rain amounts are likely. The guidance varies with respect to tstm
potential, with some of the CAMs not showing any tstm development
while others suggest the potential for highly localized rainfall
totals of 0.50-1.00". Precip chances end from north to south early
Fri, after the front moves south of the FA. Lows drop into the 50s-
60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

- Dry weather with more seasonable temperatures is expected Friday
and Saturday.

Dry wx is expected to prevail Friday-Saturday night as high pressure
builds from the Great Lakes to New England. Highs on Friday will
range from the lower-mid 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies. A
secondary (stronger but certainly not unseasonably strong) cold
front crosses the FA Friday night. Breezy N-NNE winds (gusts to 25
mph) develop near the coast by early Sat. Lows Fri night in the 40s.
Sunny/dry on Sat (and still breezy near the coast) with highs in the
lower-mid 60s. Sat night will be the coldest night of the period as
winds relax as sfc ridging (from the high to our N/NNE) becomes
centered over the area. Lows fall into the mid 30s-lower 40s (except
for mid-upper 40s near the SE VA/NE NC coast).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 255 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- There is a better chance for showers from Sunday afternoon through
Monday morning. Confidence is increasing that we will see at least
0.10-0.25" of rain across much of the area.

-Dry/seasonable weather is expected next Tuesday and Wednesday.

The main focus for the extended period is the potential for more
widespread rain Sunday through Monday. Low pressure tracking well to
our NW during this time will drag a cold front toward the area and
eventually through the region (by late Mon/Mon night). Meanwhile,
subtropical moisture spreading NNE ahead of the front will bring
scattered to perhaps numerous showers to the entire area from Sun
aftn through Mon morning. This appears to be the best chance of
precip that we`ve had in a long time, and have raised PoPs to 60%
across much of the area as both the GEFS and EPS have high probs for
at least 0.10" of rain from 18z Sun-18z Mon...with 10-40% probs for
at least 0.50" of rain. It`s important to note that the EPS had much
lower probs for 0.10/0.50" of rain 24 hours ago, so it has trended
upward since yesterday. Dry wx returns Mon night and continues
through Wed. High temps will be near or above seasonal averages
through the period, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s, and lows
in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1235 AM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 06z/07
TAF period. High clouds have overspread the terminals...and
CIGs will slowly lower this morning-aftn (but remain VFR) in
advance of an approaching cold front. An isolated shower cannot
be ruled out this morning, but the best chances are southwest of
the TAF sites. Scattered showers, and potentially a few
thunderstorms, develop this afternoon through the first part of
tonight as the front crosses the area from north to south. Winds
will remain SW this morning, before becoming W-WSW by the aftn,
and eventually N in the wake of the front. Wind speeds should
remain aob 10 kt.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions are expected Friday through
Saturday. Another frontal system approaches the region Sunday
into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions prevail through Friday.

- Small Craft Advisories are likely Friday night behind a cold front
with northerly winds of 15-25 kt.

High pressure remains centered near Bermuda this morning. Winds are
SW 5-10 kt with the area on the western fringes of the high. Winds
will turn westerly this afternoon while generally remaining 10 kt or
less. A weak cold front drops S through the waters this evening,
which will shift winds to the N. There remains a low probability of
an isolated thunderstorm after midnight, though no strong/severe wx
is expected. A brief surge of elevated winds (to 10-15 kt) is
possible post-FROPA tonight/early Friday morning, but prevailing
winds look to remain sub-SCA. Winds briefly shift to the WNW Friday
before another cold front pushes through Friday night. With stronger
cold advection behind this second front, winds will higher. The
current forecast reflects NW winds increasing to 15-20 kt Friday
evening, becoming N 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt early Saturday
morning. A few gusts to 35 kt cannot be ruled out. Winds will tend
to be ~5 kt lower on the upper James, Rappahannock, and York rivers.
If current trends hold, Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed
for most, if not all, of the marine area. Winds subside quickly
after sunrise Saturday, though 15-20 kt winds potentially linger
over the southern coastal waters through most of the day. Light SSE
flow returns Sunday. Another period of elevated winds nearing SCA
criteria is possible Sunday night in SSW flow ahead of another cold
front.

Seas this morning are around 3 ft and waves in the bay are around 1
ft, with 2 ft at the mouth. Seas of 2-3 ft and waves in the bay of 1-
2 ft are expected through Friday. Given the higher wind forecast
Friday night/Saturday morning, seas are now forecasted in the 4-6 ft
range (highest srn waters), with waves in the bay 3-4 ft. Seas/waves
subside again later Saturday and Sunday, before increasing Sunday
night once again.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs:

Wednesday, 11/6

RIC: 82 (2022), Actual: 82
ORF: 85 (2003), Actual: 83
SBY: 81 (1961), Actual: 79
ECG: 83 (2022), Actual: 82

Thursday, 11/7

RIC: 84 (2022)
ORF: 79 (2022)
SBY: 82 (2022)
ECG: 81 (2022)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...SW
CLIMATE...AKQ