257
FXUS61 KAKQ 091853
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
253 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks across the Carolina coast tonight into
Monday bringing increasing clouds and chances for light rain
showers across southeastern locations. Spring like weather
returns on Tuesday. A backdoor cold front crosses the area on
Wednesday, bringing cooler weather to coastal areas. Much warmer
weather returns late this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- There is an elevated risk for fire spread through this evening
  across the MD Eastern Shore.

- Cool and dry tonight with lows in the mid 30s to 40s.

Afternoon wx analysis shows ~1019mb high pressure centered over
southern VA and NC, with a strengthening area of low pressure along
the central Gulf Coast. Skies are mostly sunny over the area with
temps in the 50s and a ~10 mph SW wind (~15 mph with gusts to 25 mph
on the eastern shore). With the dry air in place over the area
(dewpoints in the upper teens and 20s), RH values have fallen to
between 20-30%. This will lead to the potential for some fire
weather concerns, especially over the MD Eastern Shore with the
slightly higher winds. The SPS for increased fire danger remains in
effect for our MD counties until 7 PM. See the fire weather section
below for details.

For tonight, expect to see cloud cover increase, especially across
southern portions of the area, as low pressure tracks ENE to the
GA/SC coast along a stalled frontal boundary. The slight uptick in
cloud cover combined with a light SW breeze will keep temperatures a
bit warmer compared to this morning, with lows generally staying
above freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Light rain chances increase across far southern portions of
  the area Monday afternoon into Monday night as low pressure
  passes to our south.

- A taste of Spring returns to the region on Tuesday.

- A backdoor cold front crosses part of the area on Wednesday.
  Temperatures may struggle to get out of the 50s near the coast.

The low pressure system is progged to deepen to ~995mb as it tracks
NE off the Carolina Coast from Monday-Monday night. Clouds increase
across the southern half of the forecast area during the day Monday
as a result of the system passing to our south. While widespread
rain is expected across NC/SC during the day, dry wx should prevail
across the local area through at least midday/early aftn. Light rain
may move into NE NC (and perhaps extreme SE VA) by the late
aftn/evening. The chance for light rain (PoPs no higher than 40%)
continues across far SE VA/NE NC through early Tue AM. Any lingering
precip should exit the area by 4 AM Tue. Guidance continues to keep
almost all of the precip south of the FA through the event, and will
continue with QPFs of 0.10" or less (with no QPF northwest of an
Ahoskie-VA Beach line). Highs Monday will generally range from the
mid 60s north (due to less cloud cover) to the upper 50s/lower 60s
further south. Monday night again sees low temperatures staying
above freezing, with lows ranging from the mid 30s NW to the low/mid
40s SE.

Broad upper ridging builds the region starting early Tuesday and
high pressure will build along the Gulf Coast. Skies should
completely clear out Tuesday morning and it likely remains sunny for
the rest of the day with light winds. Temperatures on Tuesday are
expected to climb above average and will generally be in the lower
70s (upper 50s and 60s closer to the coast/Eastern Shore). The upper
ridge axis moves offshore Tuesday night as a backdoor cold front
drops toward the area. The front likely pushes through at least E/NE
portions of the area on Wednesday before stalling. While this will
be a dry FROPA, there will be a rather large temperature gradient
across the area on Wed, with 50s (potentially mid-upper 40s) on the
cool side of the front (due to NE winds off the cool water) and
upper 60s-mid 70s ahead of it. The guidance varies with respect to
how far south the front makes it, with the GFS keeping most of the
area on the warm side of the front...while the ECMWF and especially
NAM are much cooler and show 40s/50s for much of the area. Given the
time of year, tend to think that temps will struggle to get out of
the 50s at least near the immediate Atlantic coast...but will
continue to monitor trends.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather and above average temperatures prevail late this week.

- A stronger system potentially impacts the area on Sunday leading
  to increasing rain chances.

The front moves back north on Thursday and temperatures likely
rebound a bit with much of the area (minus the Eastern
Shore/Northern Neck) seeing highs in the low to mid 70s as the flow
becomes southerly. Temperatures warm further Friday into the
weekend, with widespread mid to upper 70s currently in the forecast
as upper heights rise, high pressure moves offshore, and low-level
southerly flow increases. A stronger system likely tracks well to
our northwest Saturday night-Sunday. This feature will drag a cold
front toward the area, leading to a very good chance for widespread
showers across the region. Ensemble guidance shows decent (40-80%)
probabilities for >0.50" of rain across the entire area on Sunday.
While thunder is not explicitly mentioned in the forecast...will
note that some instability will likely be present...especially
during the aftn/evening on Sun across E/SE portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 135 PM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals through the 18z/09 TAF
period. W-SW winds (with gusts to 20 kt at SBY) will diminish
around/after sunset this evening and will then remain light
through the remainder of the period. Clear skies outside of high
clouds are expected through Mon AM.

Outlook: A low pressure system will track to the south/southeast
of the terminals Mon-Mon night. Some mid level clouds are
possible across SE VA/NE NC, with a 30-40% chc of light rain at
ECG Monday aftn-Mon night. Sub-VFR conditions are not expected.
VFR/dry conditions return Tue AM and last through the rest of
the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

- Sub-SCA conditions through most of Monday.

- Low pressure tracking south of the area brings elevated seas
  for most of the coastal waters, with elevated winds also for
  the NC waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the
  NC waters Monday night through Tuesday night.

- Elevated seas persist into Wednesday due to lingering swell.

Occasionally gusty winds are occuring in the northern waters this
afternoon as a disturbance aloft moves through and sfc high pressure
shifts offshore. However, conditions are sub-SCA and expect gusts to
remain at or below 20 kt through this afternoon. Light winds are
expected tonight through most of Monday, initially light out of
south in the morning, shifting to the SE and then E in the evening
and overnight Monday as low pressure tracks south of the area.
The low deepens to around 990 mb and makes its closest approach
late Monday night and winds should increase to 15-20 kt over
the srn coastal waters during this period, with perhaps a brief
period of 20- 25 kt S of the NC/VA border between 06z/2 AM and
12z/8 AM Tuesday. Per collaboration w/ MHX to our S, will hoist
a Small Craft Advisory for the NC coastal waters from 05z/1 AM
Tue-05z/1 AM Wed. This is also due to the potential for 4-7 ft
seas. Elsewhere, expecting winds to remain 10-15 kt. Seas are
likely to build to at least 4-5 ft for most of the coastal
waters, so additional SCAs may need to be issued Monday night-
early Wednesday. Winds quickly diminish Tuesday afternoon and
become variable in direction, though higher seas linger due to
continuing swell from the departing low pressure system.
Generally benign marine conditions are then expected for the
rest of the week. A backdoor cold front moves through early
Wednesday and shifts winds back onshore, but speeds are expected
to be sub-SCA. Otherwise, the next chance for widespread marine
headlines is not until the weekend as a strong cold front
approaches and crosses the area, with the potential for strong
southerly flow.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

There is an elevated risk for fire spread through this evening
across the MD Eastern Shore. The combination of relative
humidity values of ~30% and winds gusting to 20 to 25 mph will
support the potential for rapid spread of any fires that ignite.
Elsewhere, RH values remain around 25%, but lower wind speeds
(~10 mph) will make conditions less conducive for rapid fire
spread. Will continue with the SPS for increased fire danger
across the MD Eastern Shore through this evening.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>024.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...AJB/ERI
LONG TERM...AJB/ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...SW
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ