872
FXUS61 KAKQ 150923
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
423 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers possible through early this afternoon. Gusty winds
along the coast today, due to another low off the coast. Dry
weather and moderated temperatures return for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Rain chances tapering off this morning leaving this afternoon and
tonight dry.

- Seasonable temperatures return behind the rain.

Early morning analysis shows the low pressure has reformed south of
the area along the NC coast. Light to moderate rain continues for
most of the region east of I-85 and I-95. Rainfall amounts remain
highest south of I-64, with totals between 1-2" with locally higher
amounts possible. As the low pressure slides further away from
shore, rain chances for the area will decrease. After daybreak, the
majority of the area will only have a slight chance of rain, while
SE VA/ NE NC have a slightly higher rain chance positioned closer to
the low until early this afternoon. Skies will begin to clear out
late this afternoon and tonight. Winds will be gusty throughout the
day shifting from the N to NW overnight. Temperatures won`t rise
much today as cloud cover lingers. Highs will be in the mid 50
(towards the coast will reach upper 50s). Overnight, lows will reach
the lower to mid 40s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- High pressure returns bringing a dry weekend and seasonable
temperatures.

The low pressure that brought the rain will be pushed out by high
pressure. This will allow for sunny skies on Saturday and most sunny
skies on Sunday. Saturday temps will reach the lower 60s and then
cool down to the mid 30s. Sunday will be similar with highs in the
lower 60s, but slightly warmer overnight temps as clouds form
resulting in the lower to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Dry/mild weather is expected to begin the week.

- First in a series of cold fronts cross the region Tuesday, with a
  few showers possible.

- Better chances for rain with the second, stronger cold front Wednesday
  into Thursday, with breezy and cooler conditions for late
  next week.

Surface high pressure and the upper ridge axis becomes centered over
the Southeast coast begin the work week on Monday.
Meanwhile, the next western CONUS upper trough looks to eject
northeast from N MX into the southern plains late Monday, eventually
taking on a negative tilt as it lifts across the central plains on
Tuesday. Locally, southerly return flow brings warmer temperatures
for Monday, with highs in the upper 60s along the coast and lower
70s inland.

As low pressure continues to deepen over the mid MS Valley on
Tuesday, a crossing northern stream shortwave will drop a weak cold
front south across the area on Tuesday, bringing an increase in
clouds and a modest cool down back toward climo normal values. A few
showers is also possible across (mainly) the southern half of the
area Tuesday evening, as the front looks to become hung up over the
region. Either way, expect another mild night, with minimal cool air
advection and as clouds linger over the area ahead of the Ohio
Valley system.

Models continue to come into better agreement with their handling of
the deepening upper trough building over the east coast for the
latter half of next week. The upper low deepens over the Ohio valley
during the middle of next week, with the sfc low occluding over the
Ohio valley Wednesday. Latest models then push the associated sfc
cold front across the local area Wednesday night into early
Thursday. A few showers look to be possible ahead of the system Wed
aftn, with better chances as the front crosses Wed night into Thu.
Remaining mild with highs in the 60s to around 70, lows in the u40s
to m50s.

For Thu and beyond, GEPS/EPS have trended toward the GFS/GEFS idea
of a broader/deeper upper trough building east over the northeast
CONUS for the late week period. This would trend the forecast toward
a cooler solution for late next week into next weekend, with cool
and gusty w-NW winds promoting quick drying, as the upper low swings
into the northeast Thu into Friday. Lingered PoPs into Thu/Thu aftn
for now due to model timing/discontinuities before tapering off Thu
night. Cooler highs in the upper 50s to low 60s on Thu with highs in
the 50s on Friday. Early morning lows in the upper 40s to low 50s
early Thu morning, and in the upper 30s to low 40s Fri morning.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 AM EST Friday...

Widespread light to moderate rain covers the area as low pressure
slid towards the region and now reforms off the coast of the
Carolinas. Currently, RIC is the only terminal in IFR conditions,
with other major terminals in MVFR conditions. VIS are
currently experiencing MVFR/VFR conditions, which will improve
once the rain moves out starting around 12z/15 moving W to E.
Occasional IFR VIS is possible. Have included a tempo for ECG
with IFR VIS as heavier rain is possible until 11z/15. CIGS are
currently lowest at LIFR category in the far W of the area to
VFR in the far E including SBY. CIGS will rise as rain
decreases, leaving CU or status clouds lingering in the morning
to afternoon. Winds are currently from the NE and will be
shifting to the NW as the low moves off- coast. Gusts up to
25-30 kt are possible in the SE of the area (mostly contained to
ECG and ORF terminals). Winds will remain breezy through Fri
afternoon before becoming NW 5 kt inland and 5-10 kt along the
coast.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected this weekend as high
pressure builds in.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 420 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Strengthening low pressure off the coast affects the area into
  this afternoon.

- Gale Warnings remain in effect for the Lower Bay, southern
  coastal waters, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound into or
  through this afternoon for northeast winds of 25-30 kt with
  gusts 35-40 kt.

- Elevated winds are expected to continue across the marine area
  through much of the weekend.

Early this morning, sfc low pressure was just off the NC coast.
Winds were NE 10-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas were 4-7 ft
and waves were 2-3 ft. The low pressure area will intensify as
it moves out to sea during today. NE winds will increase to
15-25 kt with gusts to 30-40 kt across the waters through this
morning, before becoming NNW this aftn into this evening while
starting to diminish slightly. While the latest 00z/15 guidance
is a bit farther south with the track of the low (and overall
slightly lower with respect to winds), still expecting wind
speeds to increase to 25-30 kt with near 40 kt gusts across the
lower bay, lower James River, and SE VA/NE NC coastal waters
through this morning into early this aftn. Farther north, solid
SCA conditions (25-30 kt gusts) are expected. So, have not made
any changes to marine wind headlines, and will keep the Gale
Warnings for the Lower Bay, Coastal waters S of Parramore
Island, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound through early-
late this aftn. Elsewhere, SCAs are in effect (including the
upper rivers). Confidence in the forecast is higher than it was
yesterday, although winds could still be a few kt higher (or
lower) than expected.

The pressure gradient relaxes a bit this evening, as winds become
NNW behind the low, but winds speeds of 20-25 kt (w/ gusts to 30
kt) are expected from this evening through Sat, before slowly
diminishing below SCA levels by Sun, as high pressure builds
toward and eventually over the area. Sub-SCA conditions are
expected on Mon/Tue.

Seas build to 7-10 ft (highest south) today. High Surf Advisories
have been issued south of Cape Henry through early this evening.
Waves build to 3-6 ft (highest at the mouth of the bay). Seas
slowly subside this weekend and should fall to ~4 ft by late
Sun.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Moderate tidal flooding is forecast across much of the area on Friday,
  with locally major tidal flooding possible from Kiptopeke
  south to VA Beach and Duck. Coastal Flood Watches have been
  upgraded to Warnings for all areas south of
  Tappahannock/Windmill Pt/Wachapreague for Friday morning`s
  high tide.

- Advisories are in effect farther north where high-end minor
  tidal flooding is expected.

Astronomical tides increase late this week with the approach of the
next full moon. Meanwhile, tidal anomalies have begun to increase
today, and widespread nuisance to minor tidal flooding has been
observed across a decent portion of the area.

By the higher astronomical high tide early morning to midday Friday,
the degree of tidal flooding is dependent on the strength, timing,
and duration of NE flow associated with the deepening low offshore.
While the 12z/14 guidance is slightly weaker with respect to wind
speeds, am still expecting widespread moderate tidal flooding in
areas along and south of Tappahannock/Windmill Pt/Wachapreague, with
locally major tidal flooding possible from Kiptopeke south to VA
Beach and the nrn Outer Banks. Coastal Flood Warnings are in effect
from Tappahannock to Wachapreague southward for Friday`s high
tide...with advisories farther north where high-end minor flooding
is expected. Astronomical tides (and tidal anomalies) are expected
to gradually decrease this weekend...but additional minor tidal
flooding is still possible in many spots through Saturday.

Of note, astronomical high tides alone Friday morning
are within ~1ft of minor flood thresholds. Therefore, 1.5-2.0ft of
surge easily puts many sites well into minor flood stage and into
moderate for eastern portions of the lower Ches. Bay and ocean S of
Oyster, and 2.0-2.5ft of surge corresponding to Friday morning`s
high tide would result in major flooding.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     MDZ024-025.
NC...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ017-102.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ102.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ075-
     077.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     VAZ099.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ095-098.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ098.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ076-
     078-083>086-089-090-093-518-520>524.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     VAZ095>097-100-525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ630-631-
     650-652.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ632-634-638-
     654.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ635>637.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...ERI/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ