179
FXUS61 KAKQ 131729
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
129 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will linger off the DelMarVa coast through
tonight, before pulling away Tuesday as high pressure builds in
from the northwest. Dry and seasonable weather prevails into
Wednesday, with cooler temperatures to end the work week. A
warming trend is expected by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Lingering low pressure offshore leads to mostly cloudy and
  cool conditions today. Chances for light rain or drizzle
  remain on the Eastern Shore.

Morning analysis shows a bifurcated area of low pressure just
offshore, with one center (~1005 mb) off the DelMarVa coast and
the other center (~1005 mb) very near Cape Fear, NC. The lower
levels are nearly saturated just above the surface, leading to
widespread cloudiness and pockets of light rain or drizzle. This
is most focused on the lower MD Eastern Shore...on the backside
of that low. Otherwise, it remains breezy (especially at the
coast) with temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 F.

The sfc low to our south will slide eastward and offshore as the
associated upper low over the Mid-Atlantic pivots eastward. The
other low will slowly meander just offshore through the day and it
should eventually slide southward along our coast late tonight into
Tuesday. This evolution will favor rather dreary conditions for the
rest of the day and tonight as the low-level flow remains out of the
N, with continued pushes of low/mid-level moisture. Some peaks of
sunshine could occur in the Piedmont late this afternoon, but expect
mostly cloudy to overcast skies for our area. High temperatures
range from the mid-upper 60s. Lastly, the tighter pressure gradient
near the coast should keep the winds on the breezy side,
especially this morning into the early afternoon.

As that (weak) low moves southward along the coast tonight, expect
one more round of light rain showers or drizzle, especially for N/NE
portions of the forecast area. Forecast overnight lows are in the
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Drier Tuesday with gradually clearing skies.

- Very pleasant, sunny, and dry Wednesday.

The upper low and associated surface lows finally get kicked away on
Tuesday. Some lingering drizzle or light rain can`t be ruled out
near the coast in the morning, but otherwise skies will gradually
clear from W to E through the day. Highs range from the upper 60s E
to lower 70s in the Piedmont. Lows Thursday night in the 50s,
coolest W/NW.

On Wednesday, sfc high pressure centered near Lake Superior will
build down toward the local area. Aloft, a large ridge remains over
the central CONUS with troughing extending from eastern Canada
southward into New England. This setup will favor milder
conditions for the area (highs in the lower- mid 70s) under a
sunny sky. Chilly Wednesday night and dropping into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler, but remaining dry, Thursday and Friday. A warming
  trend begins during the weekend.

- Potential for frost away from the coast Thursday night.

A shortwave trough dives southward to our NE late Wednesday night
into Thursday, with a significant push of cold and dry
advection expected. High pressure at the surface will also
translate eastward and become centered in the eastern Great
Lakes vicinity. Therefore, much cooler temperatures are expected
Thursday and Friday with daytime highs only in the lower-mid
60s (feeling very much like Fall!). The coolest night of the
forecast period is anticipated Thursday night into Friday
morning with some frost potential apparent. The blended guidance
is already outputting temps in the upper 30s for most areas
inland and with high pressure centering very near the area and
clear skies, these values are probably too high. In this
respect, would not be surprised if we saw widespread readings in
the mid 30s. Closer to the coast, temps should remain in the
lower 40s. Friday night looks chilly again, but not as cool as
the prior night, with lows in the lower-mid 40s.

A warming trend likely begins by the weekend as heights aloft build
and a ridge axis moves overhead. Forecast highs Saturday and Sunday
range through the 70s, with Sunday likely the warmer day of the two.
An upper trough and cold front will also be approaching the area
from the NW, potentially bringing our next shot at precip by later
Sunday into next Monday. However, confidence is not very high in
the timing department being this is still ~7 days out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...

Degraded flight conditions prevail at all terminals this
afternoon as two areas of low pressure spin offshore, one to
our S and one to our E. CIGs are IFR at SBY, with MVFR
(1500-2000 ft) further inland and across the SE. Most guidance
suggests MVFR CIGs at the local terminals through the afternoon
and evening, though SBY should remain IFR. Flight conditions
are then expected to degrade to IFR or LIFR everywhere tonight,
with drizzle and lower VSBY again potentially developing after
~00-16z Tuesday, especially N. Compared to yesterday, winds
are lower this afternoon with wind speeds around 15 kt and
gusts 20-25 kt. The direction will also become NNW. Winds relax
to ~10 kt tonight.

Outlook: Degraded flight conditions persist into the first part
of Tuesday due to lingering low-level moisture. Improving
conditions and VFR are then expected from Tuesday afternoon
through the rest of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday..

Key Messages:

- Low-end Gales linger over the Bay and VA-MD Ocean waters early
  this morning, with SCAs elsewhere.

- Winds remain elevated through Thursday, but after this morning
  should primarily be sub-Gale, with a few brief periods of
  marginal gusts to ~35 kt Tue morning and again Wed night.


Secondary low pressure (~1002 mb) is situated just off the
Delmarva coast, and is the primary feature now affecting the
local waters (the other sfc low continues to slowly weaken just off
the southern NC/SC coast). The pressure gradient, along with
some better mixing has led to strong SCA to low-end Gales
lingering early this morning. Have Gale Warnings for a few more
hrs on the Ocean N of the VA-NC border, and for the Bay, with
SCAs elsewhere. Expect to be able to replace the Gales with SCAs
over the next few hrs as winds drop off a few more knots. Seas
are primarily 12-15ft N, and 8-12 ft S, with waves in the Ches.
Bay are mainly 4- 6ft, with 6-8 ft in the mouth of the Bay.

Latest trends suggest the sfc low odd the Delmarva retrogrades
to the NW later today, which will lower the winds considerably
across the northern Ocean (probably to only 10-15 kt this
aftn/early evening). Elsewhere, on the west side of the low, the
gradient remains tighter, so NNW winds will avg 20-25 kt with
gusts to 30 kt. Seas will be slow to subside, remaining at least
6-10 ft into midweek. There are two periods where marginal
Gales may develop for a few hrs- the first being Tuesday
morning in the Bay and Ocean, as the Delmarva low pivots back SE
with marginally cooler/drier air moving across the waters, and
again late Wed/Wed night, as high pressure builds in from the
NW, bringing cool, dry air and pressure rises over the relative
warmth of the local waters. For now, the probs for 34kt+ gusts
are fairly low, except farther offshore on the Ocean so
anticipate going w/ SCAs through Wed morning. Conditions finally
improve more significantly towards the end of the week, as sfc
high pressure is forecast to settle over the area.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 700 AM EDT Monday..

Currently seeing a strong Ebb tide/current occurring at the
mouth of the Ches Bay. This is leading to falling tidal anomalies,
especially over the mid/upper Bay gauges. Based on obs and
trends, have extended the Coastal Flood Warning from VA Beach
and pts northward on the VA eastern shore and Worcester MD
through this evening to cover the next high tide where many
areas will reach Moderate flood levels. Elsewhere, have
replaced all Coastal Flood Warnings w/ Advisories to cover the
aftn/early evening high tide cycle since water levels are only
expected to be at minor flood thresholds. As usual, the
ETSS/P-ETSS guidance is doing a poor job at handling the
currents at the mouth of the Bay (and is over-forecasting water
levels farther up the Bay and tidal rivers). Some additional
nuisance to minor flooding, mainly in the lower Bay and perhaps
portions of the James river will be possible again on Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ024-
     025.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ098>100.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098>100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ075>078-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ082-
     089-090-093-095>097-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ083>086-518-520.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>634-
     638-650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ635>637.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/SW
NEAR TERM...HET/SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...HET/SW
MARINE...AJZ/ERI/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...