Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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626 FXUS61 KAKQ 061059 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 659 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds over the area tonight and drifts offshore on Sunday. A cold front moves through Monday, bringing noticeably cooler and drier weather for the remainder of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 655 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Areas of dense fog this morning, especially on the MD Eastern Shore and in southern VA/NE NC. Dense fog advisory in effect through 9 AM. - Skies become sunny this afternoon while remaining warm. 1020 mb high pressure is centered very near the area this morning, with light winds and mainly clear skies (outside of fog). Dense fog has developed and expanded over srn VA, NE NC, and on the MD Eastern Shore this morning. A dense fog advisory has been issued through 9 AM for these areas. Temps are in the mid 50s. Otherwise, fog clears by 9 AM or so with some scattered lower clouds lingering through most of the morning. Skies are expected to become sunny this afternoon. Forecast high temperatures are in the upper 70s to around 80 F. Afternoon dew points in the 50s will keep the air feeling comfortable. The flow veers southerly and then southwesterly tonight ahead of a cold front. Additionally, mid-high clouds move in and thicken some across the N and NW. Low temps tonight will be a little milder and in the upper 50s, with mid 50s possible across NE NC and SE VA where it stays clearer and high pressure holds on the longest. Little to no fog expected tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - One last mild day Monday before much cooler and drier weather arrives Tuesday (and most of next week). The primary driver for next week`s weather continues to be the potent upper trough (and embedded upper low) that will situate over Quebec. The leading shortwave will push a cold front through the area Monday morning and afternoon. Guidance has trended mainly dry and have removed the slight chc PoPs for Monday. The one exception may be over the MD Eastern Shore where a few showers could occur early Monday morning along the front. A low-end PoP remains here. Highs Monday will range from the low-mid 70s N (given the earlier FROPA) to upper 70s-lower 80s S. A true Fall airmass arrives Tuesday and continues through most of next week. Highs temps Tuesday are in the upper 60s-lower 70s under a sunny sky. It will be quite crisp with dew points in the 40s and perhaps even upper 30s on the MD Eastern Shore. Overnight lows in the 40s and 50s expected Monday- Tuesday nights, with Tuesday night being the coolest of the two. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 305 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - Pleasant Fall airmass expected most of next week with cooler temps and low humidity. - Remnants of Tropical Cyclone Milton pass well south of the area midweek. Several shortwaves will pivot around the upper trough/low through most of the next week, providing additional intrusions of dry/cool air into the region. The sfc pattern will also remain quite consistent with high pressure to our NW slowly building and reinforcing SE by the end of the week. What will likely be Hurricane Milton is forecasted to move ENE through the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall on the FL Peninsula early Wednesday. The post-tropical low will then interact and phase with the upper trough over the Northeast states as the sfc low emerges into the Atlantic Thursday. The remnant vorticity then ejects eastward well out into the Atlantic. While no direct impacts are expected locally, upper-level cirrus outflow from Milton could bring increased cloud cover Wednesday and Thursday. The upper flow turns more zonal to end the week and for next weekend, with a ridge potentially developing over the eastern CONUS. This will likely lead to a gradual warming trend by the weekend. Highs through the week will generally be in the upper 60s or lower 70s (mildest SE). As of now, Thursday looks like the coolest day with highs in the mid 60s areawide. Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s inland and 50s at the immediate coast. With the sfc high becoming centered near or just NW of the area Thursday night, there could be some upper 30s. The strength of the sfc high doesn`t scream frost/freeze concerns, but patchy frost can`t completely be ruled out with NBM 10-25th percentiles showing lows in the mid 30s across the W/NW. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 700 AM EDT Sunday... Dense fog continues this morning at SBY, with patchy fog at PHF and ECG. Fog has mainly stayed away from ORF and RIC, though cannot rule out brief VSBY reductions between 12-13z. Fog remains the primary concern this morning vs low stratus, but dense fog will also usually correspond w/ an obscured ceiling, hence the lower CIGs in the TAFs. Fog clears by 13-14z, with SCT MVFR CIGs potentially for a few hours later this morning. Otherwise, it will be a sunny day with VFR. Light E/SE expected today, except at RIC where the wind direction becomes SSW. Winds become southerly everywhere tonight. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected Monday and most of next week. && .MARINE... As of 350 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - A cold front crosses the coast Monday bringing an elevated north wind Monday night into early Tuesday morning. - High pressure builds in from the northwest Tuesday into Wednesday - Tropical Storm Milton is forecast to become a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico by Monday and then track northeast into Florida by Wednesday and then to move east of the Florida Atlantic coast Thursday and Friday. 1024mb high pressure is centered over eastern QB early this morning and extends well to the SW into the Mid-Atlantic region. The wind is E to NE 5-10kt. Seas are primarily 3-4ft as longer period swell continues to propagate toward the coast. The wind will remain light today out of the E to SE at 5-10kt. Seas are expected to remain 3- 4ft. High pressure slides off the coast tonight with the wind becoming SW ~15kt N and 5-10kt S. There is a potential for brief marginal SCA conditions in the Ches. Bay N of Windmill Point, but confidence in strength and duration is not high enough to issue an SCA. Seas potentially build to 4-6ft N (highest out near 20nm) late tonight into Monday. A cold front crosses the coast Monday followed by a decent CAA surge late Monday night into Tuesday morning as the wind becomes N 10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt. A period of SCA conditions are possible, primarily for the Ches. Bay for wind, and the ocean for seas up to 5ft. High pressure gradually builds N and NW of the region Wednesday into Thursday. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Milton is forecast to become a hurricane and eventually move E off the FL Atlantic coast Thursday into Friday and becoming more subtropical with a broadening wind field. This could result in an enhanced NNE wind and elevated seas due to a strong pressure gradient between ~1025mb high pressure to the NW and the subtropical low well to the S. A high risk of rip currents is forecast for the Currituck Outer Banks today as 3-4ft nearshore waves continue with dominant 10-12s periods (14-15s secondary). Elsewhere, a moderate rip risk is in effect with nearshore waves ~3ft and 10-12s dominant periods (14-15s secondary). A high risk of rip currents is forecast Monday as 15-17s swell arrives (likely from distant Hurricane Kirk) with nearshore waves of 3-4ft. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 310 AM EDT Sunday... A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the Nottoway River at Sebrell where minor flooding is occurring. The River Flood Warning for the Appomattox River at Mattoax has been cancelled as river levels have fallen below minor flood stage. See water.noaa.gov and FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ for additional information. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 350 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Nuisance tidal flooding in possible late tonight into Monday along the shores of the middle Chesapeake Bay, the tidal Rappahannock, and the southern shore of the tidal Potomac. Tidal anomalies have dropped to 0.5-1.0ft above astronomical early this morning across the middle Ches. Bay, tidal Rappahannock and the southern shore of the tidal Potomac following a rather strong ebb tide that was only followed by a weak flood tide. These departures should persist today. Tidal anomalies for these locations are expected to increase to 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical by late tonight/Monday as a S to SW wind increases ahead of a cold front. This will bring the potential for nuisance tidal flooding along the shores of the middle Chesapeake Bay, the tidal Rappahannock, and the southern shore of the tidal Potomac. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>024. NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ012>017- 030>032. VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ099. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ065-079- 087-092-096-097. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...AJB/SW AVIATION...SW MARINE...AJZ HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...