771
FXUS61 KAKQ 041350
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
950 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Below average temperatures, lower humidity, and mainly dry
conditions persist early this week as strong high pressure
builds to our north. Moisture will slowly build back into the
region mid to late this week with afternoon temperatures
remaining below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler temperatures and remaining dry from Canadian high pressure.

- Tropical Storm Dexter has formed off the NC coast with no direct
  impacts for the area.

The low pressure system off the NC coast has now been named
Tropical Storm Dexter. Dexter will continue to move further into
the Atlantic ocean, having no direct impacts for the area. The
morning surface analysis shows a Canadian high pressure
extending through the area, following the eastern side of the
Appalachian mountains through southern GA. The strong high will
continue to keep temperatures below average and on the dry side.
As of 930 AM, temperatures across the area are in the lower to
mid 70s, after early morning lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Later today, the highs will be slightly warmer than yesterday,
now in the low to mid 80s across the area. Dewpoints will remain
in the upper 50s to lower 60s maintaining a rather pleasant
day. Tuesday morning`s lows will be in the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Below normal temperatures continue, coolest towards the piedmont.

- Dry Tuesday, moisture and chances of precipitation returns
  Wednesday.

High pressure will remain over the area on Tuesday keeping the below
average temperatures with highs in the low to mid 80s for most of
the area. The piedmont will see the coolest temperatures with highs
in the upper 70s. Tuesday will remain dry, but dew points will start
to increase making it feel a little bit more sticky. The high
pressure will then begin to glide to the NE Tuesday night, as an
upper air trough digs over central CONUS. The trough will bring
atmospheric moisture to the area, and PWAT values will return to
above average, which will increase the humidity. Chances of rain
will increase on Wednesday, with the highest chances across the
piedmont. Wednesday`s highs will be similar to Tuesday`s (upper 70s
in the piedmont and low to mid 80s elsewhere).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Slightly below average temperatures persist with increasing
  humidity.

- Increasing rain chances through late week into early next
  weekend as moisture returns.

The strong high pressure will linger over the NE as an upper trough
moves over the SE. This type of pattern typically results in some
semblance of low pressure off the Southeast coast, at least an
inverted trough. There are some members of both the GEFS and EPS
00z/04 runs that support some sort of tropical development. The NHC
has a hatched area of 30% chance of formation through 7 days, and
beyond 48 hours. Regardless of tropical development, PW anomalies
and rain chances increase later this week into early next weekend.
More humid conditions are expected later this week into early next
weekend, but high temperatures should remain below average, with
warmer overnight lows due to more humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 12z/04 TAF period. BKN high
clouds are still present across SE VA and NE NC, with a mainly
clear sky to the NW. FEW/SCT CU clouds will likely develop into
the area mid morning and lasting through the late aftn. After
the loss of daytime heating, the CU will dissipate and BKN high
clouds will return. Winds will remain out of the NE today at
5-10 kt (10-15 kt at coastal terminals).

Predominantly VFR conditions prevail through Wed, other than
some patchy ground fog and/or low CIGs early Wed morning. Low-
end chances for showers return Wed- Fri, with showers/tstms
possible during the aftn/early evening hours Thu-Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 700 AM EDT Monday...

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Atlantic
  coastal waters S of Chincoteague and the mouth of the
  Chesapeake Bay this morning, lingering into tonight for
  southern coastal waters.

- High Risk for Rip Currents is in effect across all beaches
  today.

- Tropical Storm Dexter, well off the Carolina coast, will have
  no impact on the local area other than a marginal enhancement
  to the rip current threat.

TS Dexter is currently several hundred miles offshore (to the
WNW of Bermuda), and moving NE. This will have no impact on the
marine forecast locally aside from perhaps enhancing the already
high rip current threat today and Tuesday. Winds are generally
10-15kt or less over the region early this morning, and all
wind-based SCAs have ended. SCAs are still in effect for the
mouth of the Bay (for 4 ft waves) and coastal waters (for 5ft+
seas) at least for the morning, and into this evening/tonight
for the NC waters.

The general pattern keeps onshore flow in place through the week,
with strong/anomalous high pressure (>1030 mb) becoming centered
over eastern Canada Tuesday/Wednesday, and then shifting off the New
England coast late in the week. Meanwhile, a trough of low
pressure off the SE US coast is generally forecast to become
more organized by Thu-Fri, potentially lifting NE towards the
Carolinas. Sub- SCA conditions will probably be short-lived,
with an increase in onshore flow returning by midweek, and
especially Thu-Fri, along with building seas once again.

A High Rip Current risk is in effect today for all area beaches
due to onshore swell, increasing periods (~8 seconds), and
elevated NE winds. Will note that a longshore current may be
more prevalent across the eastern shore beaches as the
predominant wind direction is largely parallel to the shore.
However, the predominant swell direction is out of the ENE and
given increasing periods, have opted to remain with a High Rip
Current risk across the eastern shore beaches as well as the
southern beaches. A High Rip Current risk across the southern
beaches and at least a moderate risk across the N beaches will
linger into Tue, with at least a moderate risk through the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ634-
     652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ654-
     656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/KMC
NEAR TERM...AJZ/KMC
SHORT TERM...AJZ/KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...KMC/LKB
MARINE...AC/LKB