505
FXUS61 KAKQ 072333
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
633 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly returns on Friday before another area of
low pressure approaches the region this weekend. Unsettled
weather is through much of early next week with multiple low
pressure systems impacting the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM EST Friday...

- Remaining dry as colder air moves into the region.

- Much colder with light precipitation moving through the region
  on Saturday. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the NE
  piedmont counties NW of Richmond for a light glaze of ice
  tomorrow morning. Any light icing would primarily be on
  elevated surfaces, bridges, and overpasses.

Latest analysis reveals 1030+mb sfc high pressure building
across the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic from the upper midwest.
Low pressure is well offshore of the mid-Atlantic, with the
associated weak sfc cold front that dropped through the area
early this morning now draped well to the south along the
coastal Carolinas into N GA and the deep south region. Aloft,
fast, quasi-zonal flow remains in place across the CONUS. A weak
shortwave continues to lift out of the central/southern high
plains region this afternoon.

Markedly drier air pushed into the region today behind the
front, and with neutral to very weak cold air advection behind
the front...temperatures have climbed well into the 60s to low
70s over much of the region west of the Bay, and in the 50s to
low 60s over the eastern shore. Temps have finally started to
plummet along the eastern VA coast with winds shifting to the
NNE, with temperatures falling off for the rest of the area over
the next few hours into the evening and overnight. Look for lows
to fall into the 30s to low 40s by midnight, with lows in the
low 30s north to upper 30s to around 40 south.

High pressure slides by to the NNE, allowing the stalled front
to the south to begin lifting back N toward the region as a weak
warm front. Ahead of it, light overrunning moisture (295-300k
SFC) pushes into the area Saturday morning through the mid to
late afternoon. NNE winds will allow cold air to remain wedged
in place through the day, allowing for some potential wintry
precip for portions of the area where temps will hover around
freezing. Have opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory from
Cumberland Co. VA north to Goochland, Fluvanna and Louisa
Counties, where a light glaze of ice will be possible. Similar
to what we saw early yesterday morning, impacts will be minimal
on primary roads, with a light glaze of ice likely on elevated
surfaces, along with bridges and overpasses becoming briefly
slick tomorrow morning through early afternoon. Farther east,
the warm nose aloft is likely to make for areas of sleet will
through early afternoon before turning over to all rain as temps
continue to warm. Given the antecedent dry airmass, could
easily see some sleet/snow mixing in at the outset as far south
as the Richmond metro as we wetbulb up Saturday morning, but
looks to mostly be limited to areas N of I-64. Freezing rain
should largely be limited to the far NW Advisory area. Could see
some sleet accumulation under 0.5" on the MD Eastern Shore and
perhaps a light glaze of ice in the NW piedmont counties, but
with temps warming above freezing and precip turning over to
rain, these accumulations wouldn`t stick around long. Highs on
Sat will be in the low- mid 30s in the NW, upper 30s-mid 40s in
the SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Drying out Saturday night, with warmer and drier air pushing
  back in for late Saturday night and Sunday.

Precip lifts N out of the area by late Saturday afternoon and
evening, as the warm front moves through the FA. Lows Sat night
will therefore likely occur at the start of the night with temps
to warm through sunrise. Temps Sun morning look to be in the
mid- upper 50s in the S and in the 40s across the N. Sun will be
dry as high pressure builds in again. Highs range from the
upper 40s to low 50s on the Eastern Shore to the low-mid 60s S
of US- 460.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- Active pattern continues into next week

- Another abrupt cool down for Monday could allow for multiple
  periods of wintry weather through Wednesday

The progressive pattern continues into next week, as zonal flow
continues across the CONUS. A baroclinic zone across the Middle
Atlantic associated with the strong jet stream just north of
the area will persist through the extended, allowing for the
active weather to continue.

A rather active stretch of weather is expected for the first
half of next week. The relatively fast/split flow regime slowly
transitions to more SWly flow from Monday through midweek, in
response to a closed low digging in upstream across the desert
southwest and N MX. Meanwhile, the frontal boundary looks to
dive south of the area Sun night, with another stronger CAD
wedge setting up across the area. A broad baroclinic zone looks
to develop, with several areas of weak low pressure sliding
across it. The first wave looks to be late Sun night into
Monday. Not anticipating much in the way of frozen precip with
this initial system, but could see some light snow across the
north, with a light wintry mix along the I-64 corridor early
Mon morning, tapering off by aftn.

Better chances for precipitation come later Monday into
Tuesday. The CAD wedge remains in place, but some warmer air
aloft moves in as upper heights build across the east coast.
Latest ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the probs
for snow accumulation occur late Mon night through late Tue
night/Wed morning remain across northern VA and perhaps into
the MD eastern shore. However, it seems possible that there will
be a zone of sleet/light FZRA just to the south of the area of
snow, and we did allow for some brief icing along and north of
the US-360 corridor in the digital DB and in our Day 3-7 Winter
outlook. For now, will keep mainly rain from there on south,
but continue with a rain/snow mix across the north. Given that
this area will again be in the battle zone between the cold air
to the north and the warm air to the south, the overall forecast
for early next week is of low confidence for temperature and
precip type.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 PM EST Friday...

VFR conditions prevail through tonight. Conditions deteriorate
on Saturday as a disturbance moves across the area. CIGs lower
to MVFR by early aftn with widespread IFR to LIFR CIGs expected by
21-00z. Light to moderate precipitation will overspread all
terminals (except for perhaps ECG) between 12-18z. Precip will
continue through early evening before drying occurs Sat night.
This will mainly be in the form of rain with MVFR VSBYs.
However, a few hours worth of PL is possible at SBY between
14-20z before precip changes to all rain. Have reflected this in
the TAF. While some sleet could mix in at RIC at the onset...not
confident enough to include in the TAF attm. Light NE winds are
expected tonight. Winds shift to the E-ESE on Sat and remain aob
12 kt.

Outlook: Multiple periods of sub-VFR conditions are likely
through early next week as a series of progressive disturbances
move through the region bringing low clouds and precipitation.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions expected through Saturday.

- Marginal chance for Small Craft Advisories Sunday afternoon behind
a weak cold front.

A cold front moved through the area this morning, with the
associated low pressure now offshore. Winds have shifted from W to
NNE, now 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves continue to remain
sub-SCA at 1-2 ft in the bay and seas 2-4 ft. Winds will continue to
be out of the NE tonight and through most of Sat.

Shifting winds on Sun from a weak cold front in the morning could
bring elevated winds for the coastal waters and the Bay in the
afternoon. A marginal SCA is possible with expected NW winds in the
bay 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt and NW winds in the coastal
waters 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves will become 2-3 ft in
the bay with seas 3-4 ft, occasionally 5 ft in the coastal waters.
Winds will decrease Sun night with conditions remaining sub-SCA
conditions through mid next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for
     VAZ048-061-062-509-510.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AC/MAM
LONG TERM...AC/MAM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...KMC