324
FXUS61 KAKQ 010227
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1027 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain are expected into
tonight as a cold front moves in from the northwest. The front
pushes south of the area Monday morning, bringing cooler
temperatures and lower humidity Monday and Tuesday. Heat and
humidity return later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1015 PM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Severe Tstm Watch has been cancelled. One last round of storms
  is expected overnight, but these most likely remain below
  severe levels.

- PoPs diminish from NW to SE overnight, lingering heavy rain
  possible in the SE through ~4am, then much cooler and more
  comfortable Monday.


The Severe Tstm Watch has been cancelled and the cold front is
approaching from the north. With the convection earlier, there
is much less in the way of instability in place...but enough
that there will likely be one last round of showers/tstms
overnight accompanying the front (highest PoPs E/SE). These
should remain below severe levels, but localized 35-45 mph gusts
are possible. Winds shift abruptly to the N/NE in the wake of
the front between around midnight and 6 am from NW to SE. Winds
become gusty to 20-30 mph as much cooler and drier air filters
in. Lows will range from the upper 50s NW to the lwr 70s far SE.

Some lingering clouds and showers in the far SE Monday morning,
but elsewhere the sky will become mostly sunny. With dew pts
falling into the 50s most areas and highs holding in the upper
70s (SE coast) to around 80F/lower 80s elsewhere, peak heat
indices Monday will be an astounding 30 to 35 degrees lower
than today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...

Clear or mostly clear and comfortable Mon night, as sfc high
pressure builds in from the N. Lows will be mainly in the mid
50s to around 60F along and W of I-95 and 60-65F to the east.
The center of the sfc high will move to the srn New England
coast Tue. Generally mostly sunny with SCT aftn cu and still
rather comfortable with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s at
the coast, and in the mid 80s inland/Piedmont. Dew pts remain in
the 50s to lower 60s. The sfc high will sit just off the New
England coast Tue night. Clear to partly cloudy and still
rather comfortable with lows in the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s.
The models show good consensus for the return of the upper
ridge over the southeast CONUS by midweek, with Wed being the
transition day. With sfc high pressure still centered just off
the coast Wed, conditions will be warmer but still near average
for early July, with highs in the mid 80s to around 90, with
humidity levels still not too bad, along with no chc for rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 405 PM EDT Sunday...

- Key Message: Heat and humidity return.

After a nice break from the heat, there is strong model
consensus for a return to hot and humid weather starting
Thursday/Independence Day. An upper level ridge will be in place
over the SE CONUS, slowly shifting off the east coast into next
weekend. Highs look to range from the mid to upper 90s well
inland and in the 90-95F range closer to the coast Thu-Sat,
perhaps trending slightly cooler by Sunday as the next cold
front pushes in from the W. With dewpoints climbing back into
the 70-75F range, heat indices will likely be at least 100-105F.
As for PoPs, expect daily chances for isolated/scattered mainly
aftn/evening tstms.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail this evening outside of showers/tstms.
Scattered to numerous showers/tstms will persist through early
Mon AM before moving to the south of the terminals following a
cold frontal passage. Some of the storms could be strong to
severe (esply through 03z/11 PM), with brief wind gusts of
30-50 kt possible. Watching the strong/severe storms north of
RIC...which could impact them between 830-10PM if they hold
together. Any tstm will be capable of producing brief IFR-LIFR
flight restrictions in heavy rain. Winds shift to the NNE Mon
morning and will be gusty, esply at the coast. Could see a
period of MVFR CIGs near the coast Monday AM behind the front.
Otherwise, VFR through the period outside of showers/tstms. High
pressure and drier conditions return for later Mon
morning/early Mon aftn through Tue, and mainly dry Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1020 PM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- A Moderate Rip Current Risk for all area beaches through
  Monday.

- A period of SCA conditions is expected across the entire
  marine area late tonight into early Monday. Occasional gusts
  of ~35 knots are possible on the bay between 3 and 9 AM
  Monday morning.

- High pressure builds from the northwest for the midweek period,
  with more benign marine conditions Tuesday through midweek.

The Severe Tstm Watch has been cancelled for the waters and the
cold front is to the north of the marine area. Additional
storms are expected later tonight as the front passes through
the region.

The previously referenced cold front, a strong cold front relative
to late June/July, crosses into the area after midnight late
tonight/early Monday, with a decent CAA surge post-frontal. NNW
winds of 20-25kt (w/ gusts to 30 kt) are expected. A few gusts
to 35 kt are likely at elevated sites on the Ches Bay. Seas
build to 3-5ft, with 2-4ft waves in the Ches Bay. SCAs have been
expanded to include the entire marine area. Winds remain N
~15-20 kt into Monday aftn, before diminishing to NE 10-15kt
Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure builds SE toward the
New England coast. Some gusts to ~20 kt will be possible in the
lower bay and lower James Monday night before gradually
diminishing. Seas slowly subside to ~3ft by late Monday night,
as high pressure builds into the region. The high eventually
settles S off the coastal Carolinas by midweek with the wind
becoming southerly.

Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk is forecast for all
beaches for the rest of today and Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630>634-656-
     658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ERI/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...AM/ERI