519
FXUS61 KAKQ 050317
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1017 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will approach from the west tonight, and
crosses the local area Thursday morning. Strong winds are
expected on Thursday, with a few light showers possible early.
Cold and dry conditions prevail Thursday afternoon through
Saturday, as high pressure gradually builds in from the west. A
significant warming trend begins Sunday, with above normal
temperatures and chances for showers expected Monday through
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1015 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Breezy and partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions ahead of
  cold front help keep overnight temperatures above freezing.

- Wind Advisories in effect tonight for Virginia Beach and Currituck
Sound starting at 1 AM Thursday and MD/VA Eastern Shore starting at
7 AM Thursday.

Late this evening, high pressure was centered well off the SE
coast, while low pressure was situated over the Great Lakes
dragging a cold front through OH valley. The sky cover ranged
from mostly clear to mostly cloudy across the region, with temps
ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s. Lows temps tonight will
not be as cold as last night, in the mid 30s to near 40, as
some cloud coverage and breezy conditions prevent radiational
cooling. Ahead of the cold front, SW winds will gust up to
20-25 mph inland and 25-35 mph near the coast. Wind Advisories
are in effect for Virginia Beach/Currituck Sound and the Eastern
Shore beginning tonight at 1 AM and 7 AM, respectively, through
the day tomorrow. Isolated to sctd showers (rain/snow) will be
possible overnight through Thu morning, mainly over the VA nrn
neck and the Lower MD and VA ern shore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Strong, gusty SW winds become WNW and remain strong into Thursday
  aftn/evening. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Virginia
  Beach, Currituck Sound, and the lower MD and VA eastern shore.

-  A few light showers are possible Thursday morning, mainly along
and N/NE of the I-64 corridor.

The latest guidance remains similar to slightly faster compared to
previous runs with the cold front passage tomorrow morning. PoPs
remain low with slight chc to chc showers to the NE of the I-64 E
corridor and the Eastern Shore. This system doesn`t have much
moisture with QPF totals to be trace to a few hundredths of an inch.
Model soundings disagree on the chc of a brief snow shower with CAMs
favoring rain as sfc temps remain above freezing. However, as the
rain cools the air and mixes in cool air aloft, a brief rain/snow
shower mix is possible. Temps will be the warmest ahead of the front
around sunrise with temps reaching low 40s in the Piedmont to low
50s in the SE VA/NE NC as the timing of the front is later. Behind
the front, temps will be in the low 20s (in the mid 20s on the
Eastern Shore) Thurs night.

The main impact from the cold front is breezy conditions. With the
front, winds will increase to gusts up to 30-40 mph for most of the
area (with briefly higher gusts directly behind the front). The
Eastern Shore and Virginia Beach area are expected to see gusts up
to 35-45 mph, resulting in a Wind Advisory through Thurs evening.
Wind chill values will drop into the teens for most area overnight.

High pressure will return after the cold front passes. Friday will
be the coolest day behind the front with highs in the upper 30s to
lower 40s and overnight temps in the teens to mid 20s near the
coastline. Saturday will have mostly sunny skies and high temps in
the low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Moderating temperatures Sunday, with much milder temperatures
Monday and Tuesday.

- Rain chances increase and persist next week (after Sunday).

A pattern change and considerably milder weather continues to loom
on the horizon. High pressure will set up S of the area with low-
level thicknesses rising quickly. An upper-level ridge also
builds/expands eastward toward the area. Sunday continues to look
like a transition day between the cooler temps of this week and the
warmer temps of next week. Still, with highs in the mid-upper 50s
and sunny skies, it will feel much more comfortable outside. Temps
from aforementioned thickness values support highs a degree or two
warmer and wouldn`t be surprised if some areas touch 60 F. Milder,
but still chilly, Sunday night with lows in the 30s to around 40 F.

The weather from Monday onward is expected to gradually turn more
unsettled, while also becoming even more mild. In fact, dew points
could increase into the lower 60s Tuesday. The overall synoptic
pattern will be characterized by deep-layer southwesterly flow with
several shortwaves ejecting out of the Midwest and Plains states.
PWATs are forecast to gradually rise to above 1", with values of 1-
1.2" possible Monday. The first shortwave is expected to track NE
through the OH Valley and into the Northeast Monday, favoring the
highest coverage of precip/PoPs across the northern half of the
area. The 12z ECMWF was wetter for most of the area so increased
PoPs into chance range areawide Monday afternoon through Monday
night. There is lower confidence Tuesday for precip due to a less
obvious forcing mechanism, but model precip fields and NBM output
suggest maintaining chance PoPs for most of the area. By Wednesday
and Thursday, the main upper trough inches closer to the area while
a potential southern stream system takes shape to our SW. Guidance
differs on the track and placement of this feature but rain showers
should become increasingly likely by this timeframe and have higher
PoPs (50-60%) Wednesday into Thursday.

Highs Monday range from the mid 50s NW to low-mid 60s SE. Tuesday
looks like the warmest day and there is an increasing possibility
that a good portion of the area nears 70 degrees. Turning cooler
Wednesday with precip and a frontal boundary nearby. Overnight lows
will tend to run above to well above average in the extended period,
with the mildest nights Monday and Tuesday night (40s and 50s).

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions and mostly dry weather will prevail at all TAF sites
from this evening into Thu evening. Mid to high clouds are
moving into the area ahead of the next cold front that will pass
through the area Thu morning. SSW winds have picked up and will
become gusty to 20-25 kt inland, and 25-30 kt near the coast
tonight into early Thu morning. A strong low level jet will be
present tonight causing LLWS from 210-240 direction around 50
kt. The cold front will move through the region Thu morning,
elevating the wind gusts to 30-35 kt with potentially higher
gusts on the Eastern Shore while shifting to the WNW. There is
a slight chc of showers at SBY 06-15z which could lead to a few
hours of degraded flight categories.

Outlook: Behind the cold front, VFR conditions are expected for the
weekend. Rain chcs Mon and Tue could result in degraded flight
categories.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 700 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Winds increase this evening into tonight in advance of and
following a strong cold front.

- A long period of sustained winds in excess of 25 knots with gusts
in excess of 35 knots are expected for much of the area, Gale
Warnings remain in effect for all area waters.

- Calmer, sub-SCA conditions return this weekend.

This evening, ~1028 mb high pressure is located south of the
area (over northern Florida). Deepening (~990 mb) low pressure
is located just north of Lake Superior. A strong cold front
extends to the SSW from the low and will quickly race to the
east, crossing the waters tomorrow morning.

Winds continue to ramp up late this afternoon into this evening,
with Gale conditions starting to emerge for all waters minus
the upper rivers (strong SCAs). SW winds will range from 25-35
knots tonight with gusts of 35-45 knots. As mentioned, the cold
front quickly crosses the region tomorrow morning, with winds
become W to NW in its wake with much drier/colder air filtering
in. Gale warnings remain in effect for the upper rivers 10 am to
7 pm tomorrow with the W/NW more favorable for sustained gale
conditions in these areas. Thursday before slowly decreasing
after sunset. However, winds will remain above SCA thresholds
well into Friday for most of the local waters. High pressure
builds into the SE CONUS this weekend, resulting in much
improved boating conditions.

Seas build to 6 to 10 feet across the northern waters and 4 to 7
feet across the southern waters this evening through tomorrow. Waves
in the bay build to 4 to 6 feet (locally 7 feet), with the peak
likely later tonight. Waves/seas will decrease on Friday but seas
offshore likely remain near/above 5 ft into Friday afternoon or
early evening.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 PM EST Wednesday...

With the strong SW winds expected tonight into Thursday morning,
there is increasing potential for blow out tides during the low tide
cycle early Thursday. Guidance has many lower bay sites
initially dropping below -1.0 ft MLLW early Thursday morning
and potentially additional sites in the bay/ocean Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. A Low Water Advisory has been
issued for the Lower Chesapeake Bay, James Rivers, and York
River for the Thursday morning tidal cycle.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for MDZ021>025.
NC...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Thursday for NCZ102.
VA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for VAZ099-100.
     Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Thursday for VAZ098.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ630>634-638-656-
     658.
     Low Water Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Thursday for ANZ632-
     634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ635>637.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ635>637.
     Low Water Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ636-
     637.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...KMC/TMG
SHORT TERM...KMC/LKB
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...KMC/TMG
MARINE...AJB/HET/RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ