325
FXUS61 KAKQ 030556
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1256 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure continues to move to the north allowing skies to
clear and showers to diminish this afternoon. High pressure
returns with dry and cool weather for the middle of the week.
Another system potentially impacts the region Friday into
Saturday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 900 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Clouds decrease tonight, allowing for cold temperatures.

- Another cold but dry day is expected tomorrow.

The low pressure system that brought beneficial rainfall to the area
today has moved offshore and is currently centered just off the
Northeast coast. This system has strengthened to 995 mb which has
lead to a tightened gradient across the region. This, in conjunction
with stronger CAA, has led to an increase in winds mainly across the
locals waters. A few land-based observation sites have measured
occasional gusts of 15-20 mph over the past few hours. GOES
Nighttime Microphysics is showing gradually clearing skies east of
the Appalachians this evening despite a majority of the Ohio River
Valley through the Gulf Coast being socked in by thick cloud cover.
Temperatures are currently in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Lower dew
points are starting to bleed down into the Northern Neck and across
the Eastern Shore.

High pressure will build across the area tonight, ushering a cooler
and drier airmass into the region through tomorrow. Temperatures
will plummet into the lower to mid 20s inland (lower 30s along the
coast). Cloud cover will continue to decrease tonight, with mostly
clear to clear skies forecast for tomorrow. Despite the abundant
sunshine expected, temperatures will remain quite cool with highs
only reaching into the low to middle 40s inland and upper 40s along
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather continues through Thursday.

- Another weather system is possible Friday into Saturday
potentially bringing mix precipitations.

Primarily SW to zonal flow aloft is expected across the area early
Thursday with a strong trough staying a little north of the area.
High pressure at the surface will slide offshore Wednesday allowing
temperature to "warm" slightly during the day under partly cloudy
skies. High will be in the middle to upper 40s across the north and
Eastern Shore and lower 50s across the south. To the west a cold
front will approach and move across the area ushering in a much
colder airmass. Lows Thursday night will be in upper 20s and lower
30s across the coast and SE and low to middle 20s further inland.
There is even the possibility of upper teens across the far NW. By
Friday the cold front is expected to stall off the coast setting the
stage for our next potential system. Strong zonal flow aloft will be
present over the area with some weak divergence aloft. This will
allow for potential cyclogenesis to occur at the surface and allow for
a formation of a low pressure system. While to the north a high
pressure is expect to move north of the area locking cold air in
place across the area. Highs will be in the middle to upper 30s
inland and low to middle 40s across the SE. The track and strengthen
of the low is unclear at this time and there is still much spread in
the models. The latest ECMWF is a bit more aggressive with the system
and has 60-70% of snow accumulation up to an inch. While the GEFS
has 0% probability. There is also an uncertainty with precipitation
types. There could be the potential of some areas receiving mixed
precipitation which includes freezing rain/sleet. This system is
expected to continue into early Saturday with any precipitation
remaining being switched over to rain by late Saturday. Trends in
the potential system this weekend will continue to be monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EST Tuesday...

- Below normal temperatures is expected late this weekend and early
next week.

- Chances of precipitation increase early next week with another
potential system.

By Sunday much cooler temperatures are possible in wake of the
system and behind a cold front and as high pressure moves into
place. Dry weather is expected Sunday with highs only reaching into
the lower to mid 40s inland and upper 40s across the SE. There
remains much uncertainty in early next week with an additional
system due to model disagreement. Some deterministic models remain
quite different than their own ensembles. Due to this uncertainty
have decided to cap off Pops below 20% and have kept a rain/snow
mix in the forecast for know. Only confidence in the extended in
much colder temperatures are possible as the strong high moves into
place. Monday will be the coldest day as of now with highs in the
upper 30s to low 40s and lows in the upper teens to low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1255 AM EST Wednesday...

High pressure is building in from the W as of 06z in the wake
of low pressure and a cold front. VFR under a mostly clear sky
with a NW wind of 8-12kt, with occasional gusts approaching
20kt. VFR conditions are expected to prevail today into tonight
with generally clear/sunny sky aside from some patchy SC toward
the coast. The wind will remain NW 8-12kt through mid-aftn,
before diminishing and shifting to W/SW. By tonight, the wind
will be calm to very light.

VFR conditions continue Thursday as high pressure remains over
the region. A low pressure system will bring the potential for
degraded flight conditions Friday into Friday night with
potentially snow turning to a wintry mix for the northern
terminals and mainly rain for the southeastern terminals. Drier
conditions return by Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters today
into Wednesday as a low creates gusty winds.

- Another round of SCAs are likely later Thursday into Friday behind
a cold front.

Sfc low pressure has developed off the local coast this afternoon.
Winds have shifted to the NW, and obs in the bay, rivers and Md
coastal waters have already picked up to 15-20kt. There have been a
few gusts as high as 30-34kt, but most gusts are 25-30kt. Winds in
the rivers did pick up a little earlier than originally forecast, so
went ahead and started the SCAs for these zones a little early. The
bay and coastal waters also have SCAs in effect, and the Currituck
Sound will be added this evening once those stronger winds spread a
little further south. Winds are forecast to remain around 22-25kt
across the Bay and ocean (17-20kt for the rivers and Sound) with
gusts up to 30-32kt this evening into the overnight hours. A few
gale-force gusts to 34kt can`t be ruled out late this evening/early
overnight; however, local wind probabilities for gale gusts continue
to remain very low. Thus, higher-end Small Craft Advisories remain
in effect for all local waters today through the first part of
Wednesday. Waves in the Bay will increase to  3-4ft during the
period of strongest winds overnight. Seas will build to 4-6ft
throughout this evening, with the occasional 7 foot wave out closer
to 20nm.

High pressure then returns to the area on Wednesday allowing winds
to subside and become generally calm before a cold front passes
through later Thursday. This may create another round of SCAs for
portions of the waters into early Friday. Seas will briefly build to
4-5ft, with waves in the Bay returning to the 3-4ft level. Another
low looks to develop offshore on Saturday, though guidance currently
keeps local winds below advisory thresholds.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ633-
     635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/HET
NEAR TERM...HET/NB
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AC/JKP