976
FXUS61 KAKQ 041857
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
257 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over region today gradually shifts
offshore Sunday. Seasonably warm and dry conditions continue
into early next week, before a strong cold front likely
approaches and crosses the area by the middle of next week.
This will bring a chance of showers Wednesday and much cooler
temperatures by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Mostly sunny and very pleasant weather today and Sunday.

- Patchy fog possible both tonight and Sunday night.

A very pleasant early Fall Saturday across the region today.
Temperatures have warmed into the mid-upper 70s, except in the lower
70s near the immediate coast. Other than some occasional, widely
scattered CU over SE VA and NE NC, skies are sunny with high
pressure in control at the surface and aloft. Favorable radiational
cooling conditions are again expected tonight, so another round
of chilly temperatures should be on tap. Lows in the upper 40s
to around 50 F and in the lower 50s closer to the coast. These
values are a few to several degrees below the NBM. Similar to
last night, there could again be some patchy fog development
inland and near the tidal rivers. Confidence is a bit higher
tonight with dew points a degree or two higher so will
highlight this in the forecast.

Very similar wx for Sunday, though max temps should be a degree or
two higher compared to today and in the upper 70s to around 80 F.
This is as high pressure gradually shifts offshore and the upper
ridge strengthens some. Skies range from sunny N to mostly-partly
sunny S with a developing SCT CU field across srn VA and NE NC
in the afternoon. The position of the high is not quite as
favorable for radiational cooling Sunday night, but we should
still drop into the lower to mid 50s. Fog will also again be
possible Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Continued mild and pleasant early next week with increasing
  clouds later Tuesday.

High pressure settles offshore and just N of Bermuda Monday into
Tuesday. Aloft, a shortwave will eject from the NW CONUS into the
Midwest as the parent longwave trough shifts eastward through the
northern Great Lakes region. This evolution will gradually push a
cold front toward the region by Tuesday, but the frontal passage
should hold off until Wednesday.

Otherwise, remaining mild both Monday and Tuesday with highs in the
upper 70s to around 80 F, with lower 80s possible across interior NE
NC. Overnight lows cool into the upper 50s to lower 60s Monday night
and lower 60s Tuesday night. Mostly sunny Monday into early
Tuesday, though increasing mid-level moisture ahead of the front
Tuesday will likely lead to increased clouds by the afternoon
and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- The next chance for rain arrives Wednesday as showers develop
  along and ahead of a cold front.

- Cooler and drier weather returns to end the week.

The cold front and upper trough approach the area Wednesday. There
remains some timing discrepancies among the models regarding the
frontal passage, with the ECMWF/EPS suite a bit faster than the
GEFS/GFS. Still, the highest PoPs (50-60%) are in the afternoon and
early evening Wednesday. The timing of the front will influence the
high temperatures across the forecast area on Wednesday, with a
delineation of cooler (northwest) and warmer (southeast)
temperatures possible during the day if the front pushes through
only a portion of area. The frontal timing will also dictate if
there will be any potential for thunderstorms Wednesday, with some
modest instability reflected in the models in the afternoon. Will
thus maintain a slight chance for thunder in the forecast. While
this front likely breaks the rain-free streak for most areas as it
moves through, it will not be a particularly wet passage as the
front is expected to move at a good clip through through the
forecast area. The model consensus is for a return to dry conditions
by Thursday and Friday, but there is some divergence across the
ensemble guidance as some sort of low could spin up along a
lingering coastal trough. Confidence is very low, but we will
continue to monitor any changes to the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

Generally VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through
the TAF period. Light and variable winds inland this afternoon,
with a light easterly breeze at the coast from weak sea breezes.
Clear tonight, but could again see some patchy fog develop.
Confidence is a bit higher than last night, so have added a
TEMPO mention for MVFR VSBY at all sites (except SBY). VFR is
anticipated after any fog burns off Sunday, with SCT cumulus
developing across southern VA and NE NC in the late
morning/afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected during the day from Sunday
through Tuesday as high pressure remains over the region. The
weak flow will continue to favor early morning fog development,
however. A chance of showers returns Wednesday along and ahead
of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- High Rip Risk continues through the weekend.

- Seas continue to gradually diminish this evening-tonight.

- Benign conditions expected Sunday into early next week, with a
  good chance of at least solid SCA conditions from Wednesday
  night- Thursday evening with NE winds.

Surface high pressure remains over the area this afternoon with
variable winds around 5 kt. Seas are slightly elevated (3-4 ft N/4-5
ft S) due to swell from distant tropical systems.

High pressure lingers near the area through the remainder of the
weekend before gradually drifting offshore on Monday. Winds remain
light and variable through the weekend, before becoming SE (~5 to 10
knots) Sunday night into Monday. A seasonally strong cold front
approaches and crosses the waters late Wednesday into Thursday.
While the latest 12z guidance is slightly weaker with winds behind
the front, still have high confidence in solid-SCA conditions with
NE winds from Wednesday night-Thursday evening. A period of low-end
gale gusts is possible during this time (especially over the ocean).
Will allow the SCAs for the southern waters to run until 6 PM. Seas
are still expected to fall below 5 ft by mid to late evening. Seas
average 2 to 3 ft Sunday through Tuesday, before building back to 6-
9 ft by Thursday behind the front.

Rip Currents: The rip current risk remains elevated on Sunday due to
continued long period swell before gradually decreasing on Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW/NB
LONG TERM...SW/NB
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...ERI