676
FXUS61 KAKQ 191518
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1018 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will bring a chance for rain and snow to
the area today. Much colder weather is expected by early next
week. A low pressure system offshore of the Southeast coast could
also bring accumulating snow to portions of the area later
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1015 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Rain and drizzle expected for most of the area today,
transitioning to a rain/snow mix across the northern half of the
area this afternoon and evening. A light snow accumulation remains
possible.

- Becoming blustery and cold tonight.

Dense fog from earlier this morning has dissipated, but areas of
fog remain across portions of far southern VA into northeast NC.

For the rest of today, still expecting low pressure over SC/NC
to move near or over our CWA and deepen in the process. This is
in response to an approaching shortwave that will track NW of
the area this afternoon. Two dominant areas of precip are
expected, especially initially this morning. The first will be
across the SE with the ongoing warm advection and overrunning.
The second area of precip is across the NW from 850-700 mb
frontogenesis along a developing baroclinic zone (as the low
gradually deepens). Therefore, the highest PoPs initially are in these
areas. Later this afternoon, rain and/or drizzle is expected
areawide, along with overcast skies. As cold air filters in on
the back side of the low, am still expecting a transition to
rain/snow across the NW by 1-3 PM, with the transition shifting
E/SE into the late afternoon and evening. Forecast snowfall
accumulations remain on the low side and are generally around 1"
in far NW Louisa county, to around 0.5" through the rest of
Louisa to northern Caroline and up to Dorchester County in MD.
Little to no accumulation is expected elsewhere. Plain rain is
expected SE of a line extending from Crewe/Blackstone to
Richmond to Salisbury, including all of Hampton Roads and NE NC.
High temps will be achieved early today, with temps falling
through the day (especially after 2 PM or so).

A very cold airmass filters in tonight as the low departs offshore.
Forecasts lows are in the upper teens across the far W, with lower
20s in the I-95 corridor and most areas away from the immediate
coast. Mid 20s are expected at the coast. Winds will also stay
elevated tonight so wind chills fall in teens areawide with some
single digits possible across the W/NW and on the MD Eastern
Shore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Confidence of seeing impactful, accumulating snow remains moderate
for Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially over far southeast
portions of the area.

- Very cold temperatures Monday and Tuesday.

Still monitoring for a potential winter storm for the middle of this
week, though the latest available guidance has been trending drier.
There remains a consistent signal that some sort of precip shield
will extend from the Deep South into at least some part of Carolinas
Tuesday night into the very early part of Wednesday in the favorable
synoptic ascent region downstream of the parent shortwave. This
disturbance is also expected to eventually kick off low pressure
formation near the Southeast coast Tuesday night. The big question
remains how far N this precip shield gets and the exact upper-level
evolution of the southern stream trough and its interaction with its
northern stream counterpart will dictate the placement of these sfc
features. As mentioned before, 00z/19 deterministic and ensemble
guidance has trended lower with snow totals. The GEPS and EPS suites
are still the most aggressive, though the ensemble mean snow
totals are much lower than what they were yesterday. The GEFS
remains completely dry and one has to squint to find any
evidence of a winter storm in any of its individual members. A
first look at our forecast snowfall accumulations paints a
stripe of 1-3" across far SE VA and coastal NE NC, with less
than 1" elsewhere. Expect forecast refinements (and hopefully an
increase in confidence) through tomorrow as additional model
and observational data becomes available.

Given the trend has been for a more suppressed low track with less
snowfall across the region, especially with NW extent, have trimmed
PoPs inland, though not as much as the global models would suggest
to maintain at least some degree of continuity from the previous
forecast. Will keep a small area of likely PoPs over SE VA and NE
NC, which still seems reasonable. Either way, should there be
precipitation, the strong high to the N will favor all snow for the
entire area (as the 850 mb 0 C line remains displaced well to our
S). The very cold air will also result in atypical SLRs in areas
where snow does fall with 15:1 or even 20:1 ratios possible across
the region. We remain outside the watch timeframe (<48 hrs), but
these don`t look too likely at the moment (if current amounts hold).
A lot can still change and future model trends could inch the precip
shield back to the W some. This means everyone should monitor the
latest forecasts and realize the threat for impactful winter weather
has not completely diminished.

There is high confidence in the aforementioned cold temps and highs
Monday range from the mid 20s W/NW to low-mid 30s E/SE. Even colder
Tuesday with highs below freezing everywhere and only in the mid 20s
for the northern half of the area. Overnight lows in the single
digits and teens are forecast, with blustery conditions fostering
wind chills in the single digits and lower teens. Wind chills may
drop to near or just below zero in some spots Mon and Tue night.
Cold Weather headlines will very likely be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Any lingering snow moves offshore Wednesday morning.

- Another coastal low potentially brings additional wintry precip
near the area Thursday into Friday, but confidence remains very low
at this time.

- Temperatures gradually moderate to end the week and into next
weekend.

Lingering snow is possible along the coast early Wednesday as the
low moves further offshore. Otherwise, Wednesday should be mainly
dry and mostly sunny, but very cold. Highs will likely be the
coldest of the week and in the 20s areawide (lower 20s or upper
teens far N), with lows Wednesday night again in the single digits
and teens. Gradual moderation in temperatures is expected by
Thursday and Friday, though highs (and lows) remain a good deal
below average.

A digging trough over the central CONUS could spark
another low pressure system near our coast Thursday into Friday.
There is very large spread across the guidance and ensembles
regarding where the low develops and where it tracks. The 19/00z
ECMWF shifted it well offshore, while the GFS and CMC are closer to
shore and have precip over the area. Given low-level cold air in
place, additional winter wx could be possible. Model thermal
profiles seem to mainly support snow or freezing rain inland and
have have these as the dominant p-types there. Rain is favored
along the coast. Still, given the large spread across the
guidance, PoPs are 30% at most and highest at the coast.

It currently looks dry for next weekend as sfc high pressure
settles near the area. Rising upper heights also indicate temps may
warm to near seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 AM EST Monday...

Degraded flight conditions, mainly from reduced VSBY in fog,
persist over srn VA and NE NC this morning. Locally dense has
reached ORF, PHF, and ECG, though the VSBY at ECG has recently
lifted as light rain moves in. Otherwise, expect MVFR CIGs to
spread northward into the remaining terminals by 15z, with IFR
(locally LIFR) CIGs expected areawide this afternoon. Light to
moderate precip also increases in coverage through the day, with
rain, drizzle, and patchy fog contributing to lowered VSBY
through the day. Rain likely changes to a rain/snow mix in the
later afternoon and evening across the Piedmont, moving further
E/SE toward RIC and SBY by 22/23z. Precip tapers off quickly
from W to E after 00z. CIGs also gradually improve overnight and
VFR should return by 03-06z Monday. NW winds also become
blustery tonight through Monday morning.

Outlook: Remaining dry with VFR for Monday and most of Tuesday,
with a chance for snow returning late Tuesday through
Wednesday. It should be noted that forecast confidence in this
late Tue/Wed timeframe remains quite low at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A strong cold front crosses the coast late this afternoon with a
period of gale force wind gusts this evening through tonight.

- Periods of freezing spray will be possible late tonight through
Wednesday due to very cold temperatures in combination with elevated
winds.

- Low pressure tracks off the Southeast coast Tuesday night into
Wednesday bringing the potential for another period of strong winds
and elevated seas.

Developing low pressure is centered over northern GA/NW SC early
this morning, with a compact area of low pressure lifting NE well
offshore. The pressure gradient is weak locally between these system
with a very light and variable wind. Some marine fog has developed
in vicinity of the Currituck Sound with weak flow, and this has the
potential to expand N toward Hampton Roads early this morning. Seas
are mainly 2-3ft, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The area of low
pressure over GA/SC tracks NE today ahead of a strong cold front.
The wind will initially remain light, 5-10kt and shift to the NE
across the northern tier of the marine area, and S to SE across the
southern tier of the area. The cold front crosses the coast late
this aftn and early evening. Strong CAA arrives in the wake of the
front along with sharp pressure rises of 5-8mb/3hr progged by the
00z/19 NAM/GFS. 00z/19 EPS probs for wind gusts >= 34kt have
increased to >70% for the Ches. Bay and ocean N of the VA/NC border
from 00-06z. Given these factors, a Gale Warning remains in effect
for the Ches. Bay and ocean N of the VA/NC border, with SCAs
elsewhere. The current forecast for the locations in the Gale
Warning is a NW wind of 25-30kt with gusts to 35-40kt for a 3-6hr
period this evening into the early overnight hours, with 15-25kt
with gusts to ~30kt elsewhere. The wind remains NW 15-20kt with
gusts to ~25kt Monday into Monday night, but does begin to diminish
over the rivers and Currituck Sound Monday night. Seas build to 4-
6ft S to 5-7ft N Sunday night into Monday with 3-4ft waves in the
Ches. Bay.

High pressure nudges into the region Tuesday with the wind
diminishing and seas subsiding. Low pressure tracks off the
Southeast coast Tuesday night into Wednesday as strong high pressure
builds in from the NW. A less amplified trend has developed during
the 00z/19 model cycle. This would bring mainly SCA conditions.
However, a more amplified and more northern track would bring a
potential for gale conditions. Secondary low pressure potentially
tracks NE along the coast during the Thursday/Thursday night
timeframe.

Freezing spray is likely during periods of strong wind late Sunday
night through the middle of next week as an arctic airmass
overspreads the coastal waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday
     for ANZ633-635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday
     for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB/SW
SHORT TERM...RHR/SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ