689
FXUS61 KAKQ 260154
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
954 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north across the area tonight, followed by a
cold front Saturday. This will result in a period of unsettled
weather today through Saturday. Drier and cooler weather return
for Sunday and Monday, followed by another warmup with above
normal temperatures heading into the middle of next week.
Another cold front approaches the region by Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 955 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A warm front lifts across the forecast area tonight with
  isolated to scattered showers.

A diffuse warm front and moisture boundary lingers from NE NC
up through the VA Piedmont this evening. Temperatures range
through the 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A
cluster of showers that moved across south-central VA (and
produced 0.5" of rain at the AKQ ASOS) is largely dissipating as
it moves into Hampton Roads. The warm front will linger in
vicinity of our local area tonight. Gradual height falls will
also overspread the area ahead of mid-level troughing over the
OH Valley and Appalachians. This will result in isolated to
scattered showers overnight, especially along and N and NW of
the US 360 corridor. QPF overnight will be minimal for most
locations, but a few locally higher amounts are possible. Very
mild tonight with lows in the low-mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms are likely on Saturday as a cold
  front moves across the area. A few storms could be on the
  strong to severe side.

- Much cooler and drier weather arrives Sunday behind the cold
  front. Warming up a few degrees for Monday.

On Saturday, a cold front will approach the area from the NW as low
pressure moves through the eastern Great Lakes into the New England
states. The cold front is expected to cross through our CWA in the
late afternoon across the N and in the evening or early parts of
Saturday night across the S. Still looking like two rounds of
showers and thunderstorms Saturday: one in morning associated with
prior-day activity and the leading shortwave trough, and the second
with the front itself. There is some uncertainty in how long the
morning activity persists, which could have some impact on afternoon
destabilization. Additionally, there is also some potential for this
initial activity to intensify some if it moves eastward into
SE VA during peak heating. This solution is shown in some of the
experiment MPAS CAMs.

Attention then turns to likely convective development across
northern half of the area as the cold front drops through. This
front is also likely to move through during peak heating and
guidance indicates moderate instability (MLCAPE ~1000 J/kg)
developing most of the area during the afternoon. A belt of
slightly stronger winds aloft will also slide through these
areas, creating some higher shear values (around 30 kt) from the
Northern Neck onto the MD Eastern Shore. Clusters of
thunderstorms are likely to develop and move rather quickly S
and SE in the afternoon and evening. The front and shear values
should allow for some storm organization and a few strong to
severe storms are expected given steep low-level lapse rates and
some DCAPE. This would tend to favor a strong wind gust threat.
The hail threat is rather low given weaker deep-layer shear and
meager mid-level lapse rates. After collaborating with SPC, the
decision was made to hold off on introducing a marginal risk
area given potential uncertainties from the aforementioned
morning convection. Still, a marginal risk may eventually be
introduced on the Day 1 outlook. While locally heavy rainfall
is also expected in any storm, a widespread flooding threat is
not anticipated given quick storm motions and dry antecedent
conditions. For temperatures, warming into the lower 80s for
most of VA and NC, with upper 70s on the Eastern Shore.
Overnight lows in the mid 40s N to mid 50s S.

Cooler Sunday with decent cold advection behind the cold front as
high pressure builds in from the NW. Highs in the lower 70s are
expected for most of the area under a sunny sky. Warming up a few
degrees into the mid 70s Monday as the high become centered over the
Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas and ridging expands across the
eastern CONUS aloft. Lows Sunday night in the mid 40s inland
and low- mid 50s at the immediate coast with a persistent
northerly wind.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Near normal temperatures Monday, with well above average temperatures
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Scattered (mainly diurnal) showers and storms Wednesday and
  Thursday, with possibly more organized storms by Friday.

A tall ridge aloft builds across the East Coast into Tuesday
before a shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes and
Canada by midweek. At the surface, high pressure remains over
the area Monday before sliding SE offshore Tuesday. This will
allow for a significant warmup into the mid 80s Tuesday. The
warmest day is expected Wednesday with temps well into the mid-
upper 80s, with a few areas possibly touching 90-91F. A cold
front approaches the area from the N Wednesday and Wednesday
night allowing for cooler temps with highs in the low- mid 70s
NE to mid 80s SW Thursday. Will also need to watch if an earlier
passage of this front could keep Wednesday a tad cooler than
forecast (as suggested by the 25/04 ECMWF). Additionally,
scattered (mainly diurnal showers and storms) are possible
Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evening. Overnight lows
generally fall into the 60s.

By the end of the week, another cold front looks to push through
the region. Model guidance depicts strengthening 500 mb flow
aloft and increasing deep-layer shear, in addition to sufficient
instability. If the frontal timing is favorable during the
afternoon and evening Friday, some threat of organized strong-
severe storms could materialize. This potential is indicated
across various machine learning aids. However, confidence is low
at this time range and much can change. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 755 PM EDT Friday...

High pressure is centered offshore as of 00z with a warm front
lifting through the region. Scattered showers are occurring in
vicinity of the warm front but are presently not impacting any
of the terminals. Otherwise, VFR under BKN mid and high level
clouds with a SE wind of 8-12kt. The warm front will slowly lift
through the area overnight into Saturday morning with the wind
veering to SSW and remaining 8-12kt. Isolated to scattered
showers will linger across the area overnight into Saturday
morning, but confidence in any direct impact to a given TAF site
is low. MVFR cigs are expected to develop after 10z and should
lift to VFR by ~16z. Showers and a few embedded tstms are
expected to develop by Saturday aftn in advance of a cold front.
Confidence in timing is low, but any showers/tstms have the
potential to produce brief flight restrictions. Additionally, A
SW wind will become gusty ahead of the cold front with gusts to
20-25kt.

Scattered showers and a few tstms could linger into Saturday
evening, especially near the coast. Otherwise, becoming dry and
VFR later Saturday night through Tuesday as high pressure builds
into the region. Another cold front potentially drops into the
area by the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Winds increase ahead of a cold front tonight into Saturday with
low-end Small Craft conditions expected. High end Small Craft
Advisory are likely Saturday night into early Sunday behind that
cold front.

- SCAs are in effect for all marine zones starting either tonight or
Saturday night and continuing through Sunday.

- Calmer conditions return Sunday night into the first half of next
week.

This afternoon, winds are generally out of the E to SE and ~10 kt.
Winds gradually increase this afternoon into this evening (highest
across the southern Chesapeake Bay), becoming southerly tonight. A
cold front approaches from the NW later this evening-tonight as low
pressure tracks well N/NW of the area. With the pressure gradient
tightening, winds increase to 15-20 kt (with gusts of 20-25 kt).
Also, seas are expected to build to 4-5 ft N/3-4 ft S by late
tonight. SCAs start at 08z/4 AM tonight for the bay, James River,
and coastal waters N of Parramore Island. SCAs run through Sunday
and continue for the remainder of the waters for the post-frontal
winds starting Saturday night. Still expect a brief lull in the
winds Saturday afternoon before the cold front crosses the waters
Saturday night. Tstms are possible late Saturday afternoon through
Saturday evening along and just ahead of the front, which could
necessitate SMWs.

The front (with decent CAA for late April with 925mb temps dropping
to 3-6C) is progged to cross the waters during the first part of
Saturday night. While the 12z/25 guidance continues to back off by a
couple of knots with respect to winds, still expecting solid SCA
conditions for 6-12 hours following the FROPA. NNW winds will
average 25 kt with gusts of 30-35 kt between midnight and 10 AM
Sunday morning. While occasional low-end gale gusts are possible
(especially on the bay at elevated terminals), not expecting these
to be frequent enough (or persist long enough) to warrant any
Gale headlines. Will note that the stronger (~35-40 kt)
900-925mb winds remain just to our north Sunday AM as per the
NAM/GFS. Local wind probabilities for >34 kt gusts have
decreased a bit, and are 20-30% north and around 10% S of
Windmill Pt/Parramore Island. Small Craft Advisory winds
continue through most of Sunday, followed by much lighter winds
Sunday night into the first half of next week. SCAs potentially
return early Wednesday in elevated SW flow, though uncertainty
is high at this time range.

Waves in the Chesapeake Bay of 1-2 ft and seas of 2-3 ft persist
today. Seas build to 4-5 ft across the northern coastal waters by
late tonight/Saturday with 3-4 ft seas farther south. Seas build
further to 4-6 ft Sunday morning behind the front, with 3-5 ft waves
on the bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 4 PM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ630>632-634-637-638-650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Saturday to 4 PM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ635-636-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM/SW
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...RMM/SW
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJB/ERI