985
FXUS61 KAKQ 020129
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
929 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic region today
through Wednesday bringing pleasant conditions and seasonal
temperatures. Warming temperatures are expected later in the
week and into the weekend as high pressure settles offshore.
Chances of showers increase by the weekend as a cold front
stalls to the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 930 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler tonight with lows in the lower-mid 40s, except 30s
  possible on the MD Eastern Shore.

- Dry and seasonable Wednesday.

An area of high pressure extends from SE Canada into the New
England and Mid-Atlantic states this evening. With light
northeasterly low-level flow off the cooler waters of the ocean
and bay, temps are cooler across the eastern portions of the
area this evening (upper 40s-lower 50s), with milder temps
(mid-upper 50s) across the west and southwest. Nighttime
satellite imagery shows areas of cirrus streaming into the area
in the WNW flow aloft. For the rest of the night, mainly clear
skies (outside of the cirrus) and generally light winds should
promote decent radiational cooling conditions. However, the
position of the high, along with slowly rising heights and
thicknesses, doesn`t favor an overly cool night. Forecast lows
are in the low- mid 40s W of the Chesapeake Bay (a few areas
across the NW Piedmont could dip into the upper 30s), with upper
30s-lower 40s on the Eastern Shore. Mid 30s are possible across
interior and western portions of the MD Eastern Shore, as
suggested by some of the statistical guidance. While the
frost/freeze program has officially begun as of today (April 1),
am not expecting much, if any, frost tonight, though isolated
patches are possible in the coolest locations. Will therefore not
have any frost headlines tonight.

The position of the sfc high shifts towards northern Maine on
Wednesday. The low-level flow will also become easterly-
southeasterly, which may keep a wedge-like airmass in place
across the Piedmont (particularly NW). The high temperature
forecast is somewhat uncertain given the potential wedging and
a rather large spread is present across the guidance (for a
12-24 hr forecast). The highest confidence in milder temps...well
into the 60s and potentially lower 70s...is across interior
southern VA and NE NC. Cooler temps in the upper 50s-lower 60s
are likely closer to the coast given the flow off the cool
waters, with similarly cool conditions possible across the NW
Piedmont. Meanwhile, a warm front gradually advances northward
through the NC/SC Piedmont later in the afternoon and evening.
This feature is likely to bring increased low-level cloudiness
through the day as sfc dew points inch upwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Much warmer temperatures are expected both Thursday and Friday

- Limited chances of rain return by Friday.

An upper level ridge is progged to build across the area by late
Wednesday. Meanwhile, at the surface the high pressure will just be
off the coast of New England by late Wednesday evening. While just
to the south a warm front will continue to make its way from the
south. Ahead of the front will be some ongoing cloud cover that will
help keep temperatures mild throughout Wednesday night. Low
temperatures will range in the middle to upper 50s across the FA.
With the warm front moving across the area and advecting in moisture
there is the possibility of fog late Wednesday into Thursday
morning. By Thursday the high pressure will move into the SE causing
temperatures to be much warmer. High for thursday will be in the
middle 80s across VA/NC and upper 70s to lower 80s across the
Eastern Shore. By Friday the chances of showers will increase as a
cold front stalls just north of the CWA. This front could
potentially cause a sharp gradient with temperatures depending on
where it is positioned. As of this update temperatures across the
north will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. While across the south
highs will be in the middle to upper 80s possibly even nearing 90
degrees across the south. In addition, the chances of showers do
increase Friday along the stationary boundary to the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer temperatures continue through the weekend.

- A better chance of showers and thunderstorms potentially arrives
late Sunday/Sunday night.

- Much cooler weather appears likely early next week.

The latest 12z GEFS and Euro Model are in decent agreement with a
strong ridge staying in place through the weekend. This ridge will
allow temperatures to warm up into the middle 80s. By the end of the
weekend the ridge is expected to break down Due to a strong trough
coming out of the north. Meanwhile at the surface, the cold front
from Friday is expected to lift north Saturday and than further north
Sunday. This is due to a strong system that is expected to make its
way across the Ohio River Valley. Temperatures should generally
remain above seasonal averages into the weekend, aside from locally
cooler temperatures over the Eastern Shore Saturday with onshore
flow. Saturday should be mostly dry with low-end shower chances
across northern portions of the area. A better chc of showers/tstms
potentially arrives Sunday/Sunday night. A more significant pattern
change is likely starting early next week as the cold front finally
crosses the area while a deep upper trough settles over eastern
North America. Highs likely drop back down to near seasonal averages
by next Monday with shower chances continuing through the first part
of the day, before drier air arrives from the NW later in the day.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR is forecast to prevail through the 00z/02 TAF period. For
the rest of this evening into tonight, SCT cirrus will continue
to stream in from the WNW. Otherwise, N-NE winds this evening
become light out of the E tonight and early Wednesday morning.
ESE-SE winds of 10-15 kt, with gusts up to 20-25 kt, are
expected after 13z Wednesday. SCT mid-high cloud cover also
persists into Wednesday, with an increase in lower clouds later
in the afternoon as warm front nears the area from the south,
especially across the Piedmont and around RIC.

Outlook: High pressure retreats offshore Wednesday night into
Thursday as the warm front lifts north through the region. There
is the potential for MVFR CIGs Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, along with patchy fog. VFR should return areawide by
Thursday afternoon, followed by possible flight restrictions
again Thursday night. There is also a minimal chc of showers
later in the week as a cold front tries to nudge into the region
from the NW. This cold front then slides through the area as a
backdoor front Friday night, and lifts back N Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail from tonight through most of Wednesday.

- Winds become elevated Wednesday afternoon through Thursday with
  marginal SCA conditions possible.

- Another period of elevated winds is possible early next week ahead
  of and behind a strong cold front.

High pressure is building toward the waters this afternoon. Winds
have diminished to ~15 kt on the bay/ocean (5-15 kt on the rivers).
SCAs remain in effect for the ocean until 7 PM (as seas are still
~5 ft in spots). Winds become E at 10 kt tonight as the high shifts
offshore. The gradient on the back side of the high will increase
late Wed-Wed night, allowing wind speeds to increase to 15-20 kt
late Wed afternoon-Wed night (with the wind direction becoming SE-
S). Low-end SCA conditions are possible on the bay and northern
coastal waters during this time (especially Wed night-early Thu AM).
Local wind probabilities of sustained 18 kt winds are 40-70% from 03-
08z Thu on the bay. Seas subside to 3-4 ft tonight but build back to
4-5 ft by late Wed night. Will hold off on additional SCA headlines
attm, but will continue to monitor. Low-end SCA conditions are also
possible on Thursday (mainly on the rivers, sound, and
southern/western shore of the bay) due to gusty SW winds during the
day with increased mixing over adjacent land areas. Generally sub-
SCA conditions are expected on Friday and Saturday. SCAs are
possible on Sunday/Sunday night due to SW winds increasing to ~20 kt
(with higher gusts) ahead of a cold front. Additionally, seas likely
build back to 4-6 ft by late Sunday (and remain above SCA thresholds
on Mon/Tue). Another period of elevated winds is possible behind the
above mentioned cold front from Monday-Tuesday with N-NW winds
around 20 kt.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/HET
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...ERI/RMM