501
FXUS61 KAKQ 070204
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
904 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the Southeast states tonight
through Friday bringing dry and seasonal conditions. A weak cold
front drops across the region Saturday and settles across the
Carolinas Sunday as weak high pressure builds in from the
northwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 900 PM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

- Clearing and cool tonight.

Sfc high pressure builds in from the SW overnight as the flow
aloft becomes less amplified over the region. Other than some
lingering cloud cover over the Eastern Shore, skies have cleared
out as of latest satellite data. Remaining clear for the first
half of the night, then high clouds move in from the west late.
Breezy westerly winds diminish overnight as they turn to the SW.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and milder but still a bit breezy Friday.

Surface high pressure becomes centered in vicinity of the
Southeast Coast Friday beneath zonal flow aloft. Partly sunny
with some high clouds with WAA aloft within the zonal flow.
Forecast high temperatures range through the 50s, which are near
seasonal averages. Not as breezy Friday with the exception of
the MD Eastern Shore, where westerly wind gusts to 20-25 mph are
expected late morning to mid-afternoon.

Zonal flow aloft continues locally Friday night into Saturday.
However, a split flow pattern develops with a northern stream
wave diving from the northern Great Lakes into New England. This
will allow for a weak cold front to drop through the region
Saturday. Moisture will be limited with this front with only
slight chc Pops at this time for light rain showers. Partly
cloudy to mostly clear and not as cool Friday night with low
temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Partly sunny to
occasionally mostly cloudy Saturday with high temperatures
ranging from the lower/mid 50s N to lower/mid 60s S. The cold
front stalls across the Carolinas Saturday night into Sunday
with a southern stream upper trough moving into the Southeast
CONUS. Most of the rainfall associated with this system should
remain suppressed S of the local area as weak high pressure
builds in from the NW, with only slight chc PoPs along the VA/NC
border into NE NC. Cooler Saturday night/early Sunday morning
with lows in the upper 20s N to mid 30s S. Highs Sunday will
mainly be 50-55F under a partly sunny to mostly cloudy sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Milder conditions continue Saturday, before turning slightly
  cooler again Sunday. A few sprinkles or light rain showers
  possible Saturday.

- Dry and Spring-like conditions are expected Monday through
  Wednesday.

The southern stream wave slides off the Southeast Coast Sunday
night, followed by a broad upper ridge building across the Mid-
Atlantic Monday through Wednesday. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure settles off the Southeast coast. This will lead to dry
and warm spring-like conditions. Highs Monday will mainly be in
the 60s, upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday, with mid to upper 70s by
Wednesday. Morning lows will trend upward from the lower to mid
30s Monday morning, to the mid 30s to lower 40s Tuesday morning,
and the 40s by Wednesday morning. The next chc of rain arrives
Thursday, but confidence is low with the latest model trends
indicating a suppressed southern stream wave.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 635 PM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail tonight through Friday as high pressure
continues to build across the Southeast. Lingering cloud cover
continues to dissipate this evening, followed by some high
clouds building in late tonight into Friday. A WNW wind will
remain breezy early in the 00z TAF period, with gusts to ~20kt
through 02-03z, before diminishing to 5-10kt overnight. SBY,
however, will continue to gust to 20-25kt through the period.
The wind will mainly be WSW 8-12kt Friday, and locally W 10-15kt
with gusts to 20-25kt at SBY.

A weak cold front drops across the region Saturday, bringing
some increasing clouds once again. Primarily dry and VFR with a
slight chc of light showers/sprinkles. Some light showers are
possible at ECG Saturday night into Sunday as the front lingers
over NC. Otherwise, dry and VFR with high pressure returning
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:
- Gale Warnings are in effect today for all coastal waters and the
Chesapeake Bay until late tonight with Small Craft Advisories for
the rivers and Currituck Sound.

- Winds and waves will decrease by the weekend and remain below
Small Craft Advisory criteria into early next week.

Current surface analysis shows a strong low pressure system to the
north and high pressure building over the Deep South. A strong
pressure gradient is draped across the region and combined with the
dry cool air from the recent cold fronts, elevated winds continue
through early morning tomorrow. Small Craft Advisories are in effect
for all waters through 4 PM, when Gale Warning will replace in the
Bay and all coastal waters. Winds are currently NW 10 to 15 kt with
gusts up to 25 kt in the coastal waters and 15 to 20 kt with gusts
up to 25 kt in the Bay and lower James River. Winds will increase
through tonight with peak winds around midnight at 25 to 30 kts with
gusts up to 40 kt on the coastal waters and 25 to 30 kt with gusts
up 35 kt. Seas have decreased from this morning, now around 4 to 6
ft along the coastal waters and waves 1 to 2 ft in the Bay. Seas and
waves will increase with the elevated winds to 5 to 7 ft in the
coastal waters and 3 to 5 ft in the Bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634-654-656-
     658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ635>638.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ/AC
MARINE...KMC