


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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985 FXUS61 KAKQ 020129 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 929 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic region today through Wednesday bringing pleasant conditions and seasonal temperatures. Warming temperatures are expected later in the week and into the weekend as high pressure settles offshore. Chances of showers increase by the weekend as a cold front stalls to the north. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 930 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Cooler tonight with lows in the lower-mid 40s, except 30s possible on the MD Eastern Shore. - Dry and seasonable Wednesday. An area of high pressure extends from SE Canada into the New England and Mid-Atlantic states this evening. With light northeasterly low-level flow off the cooler waters of the ocean and bay, temps are cooler across the eastern portions of the area this evening (upper 40s-lower 50s), with milder temps (mid-upper 50s) across the west and southwest. Nighttime satellite imagery shows areas of cirrus streaming into the area in the WNW flow aloft. For the rest of the night, mainly clear skies (outside of the cirrus) and generally light winds should promote decent radiational cooling conditions. However, the position of the high, along with slowly rising heights and thicknesses, doesn`t favor an overly cool night. Forecast lows are in the low- mid 40s W of the Chesapeake Bay (a few areas across the NW Piedmont could dip into the upper 30s), with upper 30s-lower 40s on the Eastern Shore. Mid 30s are possible across interior and western portions of the MD Eastern Shore, as suggested by some of the statistical guidance. While the frost/freeze program has officially begun as of today (April 1), am not expecting much, if any, frost tonight, though isolated patches are possible in the coolest locations. Will therefore not have any frost headlines tonight. The position of the sfc high shifts towards northern Maine on Wednesday. The low-level flow will also become easterly- southeasterly, which may keep a wedge-like airmass in place across the Piedmont (particularly NW). The high temperature forecast is somewhat uncertain given the potential wedging and a rather large spread is present across the guidance (for a 12-24 hr forecast). The highest confidence in milder temps...well into the 60s and potentially lower 70s...is across interior southern VA and NE NC. Cooler temps in the upper 50s-lower 60s are likely closer to the coast given the flow off the cool waters, with similarly cool conditions possible across the NW Piedmont. Meanwhile, a warm front gradually advances northward through the NC/SC Piedmont later in the afternoon and evening. This feature is likely to bring increased low-level cloudiness through the day as sfc dew points inch upwards. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: - Much warmer temperatures are expected both Thursday and Friday - Limited chances of rain return by Friday. An upper level ridge is progged to build across the area by late Wednesday. Meanwhile, at the surface the high pressure will just be off the coast of New England by late Wednesday evening. While just to the south a warm front will continue to make its way from the south. Ahead of the front will be some ongoing cloud cover that will help keep temperatures mild throughout Wednesday night. Low temperatures will range in the middle to upper 50s across the FA. With the warm front moving across the area and advecting in moisture there is the possibility of fog late Wednesday into Thursday morning. By Thursday the high pressure will move into the SE causing temperatures to be much warmer. High for thursday will be in the middle 80s across VA/NC and upper 70s to lower 80s across the Eastern Shore. By Friday the chances of showers will increase as a cold front stalls just north of the CWA. This front could potentially cause a sharp gradient with temperatures depending on where it is positioned. As of this update temperatures across the north will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. While across the south highs will be in the middle to upper 80s possibly even nearing 90 degrees across the south. In addition, the chances of showers do increase Friday along the stationary boundary to the north. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Warmer temperatures continue through the weekend. - A better chance of showers and thunderstorms potentially arrives late Sunday/Sunday night. - Much cooler weather appears likely early next week. The latest 12z GEFS and Euro Model are in decent agreement with a strong ridge staying in place through the weekend. This ridge will allow temperatures to warm up into the middle 80s. By the end of the weekend the ridge is expected to break down Due to a strong trough coming out of the north. Meanwhile at the surface, the cold front from Friday is expected to lift north Saturday and than further north Sunday. This is due to a strong system that is expected to make its way across the Ohio River Valley. Temperatures should generally remain above seasonal averages into the weekend, aside from locally cooler temperatures over the Eastern Shore Saturday with onshore flow. Saturday should be mostly dry with low-end shower chances across northern portions of the area. A better chc of showers/tstms potentially arrives Sunday/Sunday night. A more significant pattern change is likely starting early next week as the cold front finally crosses the area while a deep upper trough settles over eastern North America. Highs likely drop back down to near seasonal averages by next Monday with shower chances continuing through the first part of the day, before drier air arrives from the NW later in the day. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 740 PM EDT Tuesday... VFR is forecast to prevail through the 00z/02 TAF period. For the rest of this evening into tonight, SCT cirrus will continue to stream in from the WNW. Otherwise, N-NE winds this evening become light out of the E tonight and early Wednesday morning. ESE-SE winds of 10-15 kt, with gusts up to 20-25 kt, are expected after 13z Wednesday. SCT mid-high cloud cover also persists into Wednesday, with an increase in lower clouds later in the afternoon as warm front nears the area from the south, especially across the Piedmont and around RIC. Outlook: High pressure retreats offshore Wednesday night into Thursday as the warm front lifts north through the region. There is the potential for MVFR CIGs Wednesday night into Thursday morning, along with patchy fog. VFR should return areawide by Thursday afternoon, followed by possible flight restrictions again Thursday night. There is also a minimal chc of showers later in the week as a cold front tries to nudge into the region from the NW. This cold front then slides through the area as a backdoor front Friday night, and lifts back N Saturday. && .MARINE... As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA conditions prevail from tonight through most of Wednesday. - Winds become elevated Wednesday afternoon through Thursday with marginal SCA conditions possible. - Another period of elevated winds is possible early next week ahead of and behind a strong cold front. High pressure is building toward the waters this afternoon. Winds have diminished to ~15 kt on the bay/ocean (5-15 kt on the rivers). SCAs remain in effect for the ocean until 7 PM (as seas are still ~5 ft in spots). Winds become E at 10 kt tonight as the high shifts offshore. The gradient on the back side of the high will increase late Wed-Wed night, allowing wind speeds to increase to 15-20 kt late Wed afternoon-Wed night (with the wind direction becoming SE- S). Low-end SCA conditions are possible on the bay and northern coastal waters during this time (especially Wed night-early Thu AM). Local wind probabilities of sustained 18 kt winds are 40-70% from 03- 08z Thu on the bay. Seas subside to 3-4 ft tonight but build back to 4-5 ft by late Wed night. Will hold off on additional SCA headlines attm, but will continue to monitor. Low-end SCA conditions are also possible on Thursday (mainly on the rivers, sound, and southern/western shore of the bay) due to gusty SW winds during the day with increased mixing over adjacent land areas. Generally sub- SCA conditions are expected on Friday and Saturday. SCAs are possible on Sunday/Sunday night due to SW winds increasing to ~20 kt (with higher gusts) ahead of a cold front. Additionally, seas likely build back to 4-6 ft by late Sunday (and remain above SCA thresholds on Mon/Tue). Another period of elevated winds is possible behind the above mentioned cold front from Monday-Tuesday with N-NW winds around 20 kt. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/HET NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...HET LONG TERM...AJZ/HET AVIATION...SW MARINE...ERI/RMM