034
FXUS61 KAKQ 101516
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1116 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the area today allowing for pleasant
weather conditions across the area. Dry and slightly warmer is
expected across the area. High pressure will migrate further
south through the week allowing for temperatures to warm and
allow for the daily chances of showers to return.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1115 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Slightly warmer but still near or just below climate norms for
  early-mid August.

- Patchy fog is more likely late tonight/early Monday morning
  across the Piedmont and MD Eastern Shore. Some locally dense
  fog will be possible.

Weather analysis at midday shows an upper level ridge centered
over the eastern third of the CONUS. At the surface, high
pressure continues to remain in place over coastal New England
and the northeast, ridging down into the mid-Atlantic and
southeast. A weak coastal front remains in place along the
coastal Carolinas, with a weak low near the GA/SC line lifts NNE
toward the NC outer banks. Mainly clear over the northern half
of the area, with some stratus and stratocu lifting north from
the coastal trough to the south. Latest obs reflect temperatures
ranging through the 70s across the region, with the forecast
and expected highs in the low to mid 80s still on track.

High pressure to the north slowly builds south into this
evening, allowing for a modest warmup, especially central and
northern zones. Farther south, this will maintain some clouds
into the afternoon and evening hours, with the chance for a
rogue shower or two over Bertie and Chowan counties late this
afternoon into early evening. Otherwise, look for high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

As the high slips farther south tonight, return flow will be
more efficient. There is therefore better potential for fog and
low stratus development late tonight into Monday morning, with
some locally dense fog possible around and just before sunrise
Monday morning. Lows will also be slightly milder, with early
morning low temperatures in the lower to middle 60s inland and
upper 60s to lower 70s along the coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures gradually warm through the early part of next week

- Daily chances of showers and storms return Monday and Tuesday.

The upper level ridge will continue to be over the eastern half of
the United States Monday. While at the surface the high pressure
will be just south of the off the Delmarva coast. This will allow for
S to SW winds allowing for a warmer and humid air mass to move back
in place. PW values will build near 2" primarily across the
southern half of the area. Instability will also build back in with
~1000 J/kg of Mlcape. These ingredients should be efficient enough
to help initiate showers and possibly an isolated storm primarily
south of I-64 Monday afternoon. No severe threat is expected as flow
aloft remains weak. This is typical for a normal summer time patter.
However, cannot rule a brief localized heavy downpour. Otherwise,
high temperatures will be in the middle 80s across the north and
lower 80s south and along the coast. The reason for the lower 80s
across the south is due to the increase of cloud cover through the
day which will help keep the southern half of the area cooler. High
pressure will be off the SE coast by Tuesday. Temperatures will
continue to warm with highs in the upper to middle 80s across the
CWA. Additionally dew points will also rise into the upper 60s to
lower 70s. This will allow for Heat Indices to be in the lower 90s.
Daily chances of storms continue in the afternoon of Tuesday. No
severe storms are expected due to the weak flow aloft. However, a
localized heavy downpour is possible due to weak modest instability
and high PW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Near to slightly above seasonable temperatures are expected   in
the extended forecast.

- Chances for daily late afternoon and evening showers and  storms
return through the forecast period. However, the   potential for
widespread severe weather remains low.

The 00z ensemble guidance continues to remain in decent agreement
with the over all synoptic pattern in the extended. An upper level
ridge will continue to be over the eastern half of the United States
while further west a weak trough move across the central US. High
pressure at the surface will slide into place over the western
Atlantic. This high pressure will allow for temperatures by the
middle to late next week be near or just above seasonable. Highs Wed
through Sat will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat Indices
will also increase as an influx of moisture makes a return. Heat
indices could potentially reach near 100 by mid to late next week,
but likely not reaching Heat Advisory criteria through late week.
Daily chances for showers and storms continue through the extended.
Severe weather isn`t a significant concern through this period, with
shear remaining weak/not supportive of organized convection.&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Sunday...

A mix of flight restrictions have been noted across all
terminals this morning. Across the eastern TAF sites low level
clouds continue to push over the terminals causing brief
periods of MVFR conditions. Across SBY, brief periods of IFR are
possible with patchy fog. However, due to these brief periods a
tempo group has been added between 12 to 13z that is when the
fog should dissipate. PHF & RIC there is the possibility of some
patchy ground fog that may cause a brief MVFR in VIS. a tempo
has been added between 12z to 13z for these brief periods. Over
the day MVFR conditions should lift to VFR across all terminals.
Winds will also increase out of the NE ~5kt. Then by tonight
more flight restrictions are possible as low level stratus and
fog is possible to develop late tonight and into Monday morning.

High pressure builds S over the region early-mid next week as
low pressure moves well offshore. This will bring mainly dry and
VFR conditions, aside from any early morning fog/stratus. Low
chances of diurnal showers/tstms return by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 AM EDT Sunday...


Mainly VFR conditions continue to prevail everywhere but ORF
this morning. Sky cover inland remains clear. Across the coastal
terminals some SCT to BKN low level clouds continue to make
their way across the terminals. Some MVFR cigs have been
reported across the ORF terminal this morning. Winds continue to
be light and variable inland while across the coastal terminals
winds remain out of the NE ~5kt. Throughout this morning VFR
conditions should turn into MVFR to potentially IFR conditions
across all terminals. Latest model guidance continues to show
patch fog developing across PHF, RIC, and SBY ~8z. However,
confidence in exact timing is low and a tempo group has been
added between 8 to 10z then prevails from 10z to 13z. This
patchy fog will cause CIGS and VIS to drop. Across the coastal
zones fog is not expected however, low level clouds causing
MVFR conditions are expected. These MVFR conditions will last
through the early morning hours before cloud heights rise due to
daytime heating. High pressure remains over the region bringing
VFR conditions through the day. While tonight some fog and/or
low status could possibly form causing additional flight
restrictions tonight into monday.

High pressure builds S over the region early-mid next week as
low pressure moves well offshore. This will bring mainly dry and
VFR conditions, aside from any early morning fog/stratus. Low
chances of diurnal showers/tstms return by midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A High Risk for Rip Currents continues today across the southern
beaches, with a moderate risk across the Atlantic beaches on the
eastern shore.

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected this week.

~1025mb high pressure is centered from VA to the New England coast
early this morning. With the relaxing pressure gradient, NE winds
are only 5-10 kt with 3-4 ft seas/1-3 ft waves (highest S). All SCAs
have been allowed to expire. Benign, sub-SCA marine conditions
prevail through the week. Winds will be ENE around 10 kt today but
will gradually veer to the SE from tonight-Monday (with speeds
remaining around 10 kt) as the high shifts to the east. Winds then
are forecast to be S-SE at 5-10 kt through much of the week as the
high remains anchored offshore with no cold fronts on the horizon.
Seas will mainly be 2-3 ft, with 1 ft to occasionally 2 ft waves in
the Ches Bay.

A High risk for rip currents continues today across VA Beach/Eastern
Currituck County given lingering 3-4 ft waves, shore-normal swell,
and 8-9 second periods. A Moderate risk for rip currents exists
across the northern beaches given slightly less favorable swell
direction and lower waves (~3 ft). The rip current risk decreases to
Low across the N beaches and Moderate across the S beaches Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM
NEAR TERM...HET/MAM
SHORT TERM...HET/MAM
LONG TERM...HET/MAM
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...ERI/RMM