985
FXUS61 KAKQ 280711
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
211 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions persist through Saturday night. The
next chance for light rain arrives Sunday. A stronger system
brings a much better chance for widespread rain on Tuesday.
Precipitation may start as a brief period of light freezing rain
across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday
morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 AM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- Cold and breezy today with wind chills only warming into the 30s
  during the afternoon.

- Very cold tonight with upper teens to lower 20s inland and upper
  20s to lower 30s along the coast.

Latest surface analysis shows low pressure in Quebec with strong,
~1036 mb high pressure building into the Plains. A secondary push of
CAA has arrived in the past few hours, and temperatures are in the
upper 20s-30s and will cool down a few more degrees between now and
sunrise as 850 mb temperatures fall to -10C. Today will be even
cooler than yesterday in the wake of the secondary CAA surge. Highs
will only make it to the lower-mid 40s even though it will be mostly
sunny (w/ a bit more clouds north). In addition, gusty WNW winds to
25-35 mph (highest on the eastern shore) will keep wind chills no
higher than the 30s throughout the day. Winds quickly diminish
tonight (and become light/calm inland) as the strong high settles
over the area. As a result, radiational cooling conditions will be
ideal for a decent portion of the FA. This will lead to the coldest
night of the season so far. Upper teens are likely in the Piedmont
and perhaps rural areas near the I-95 corridor, with lower 20s
elsewhere (inland). Lows will fall into the upper 20s-30F near the
immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Continued cool and dry weather with less wind on Saturday.

- Light rain is possible Sunday into Sunday night.

Still cool with lighter winds on Sat as the high remains over the
area. Forecast highs are in the low-mid 40s and lows Sat night will
be in the mid to upper 20s inland and mid 30s along the coast as the
high moves offshore and winds become light out of the S-SE. Low
pressure is progged to track from the Midwest to the NE Great Lakes
from Sat night-Sun. This will bring an increase in clouds to the
area Sat night and Sunday from west to east. Precipitation likely
remains to our west through sunrise on Sunday as the low levels will
initially be very dry. Light precipitation should begin to reach the
ground in the Piedmont by early Sun aftn and then across the
remainder of the area later Sun aftn/Sun evening. This should mainly
be in the form of rain, but there is a nonzero chance of light
sleet/freezing rain across the Piedmont late Sat night into Sun
morning if precipitation begins earlier than expected. For now,
confidence in this is low so only have rain in the forecast. The
other forecast challenge on Sunday will be temperatures. Despite SSW
winds across the FA, there will be a decent temperature gradient
with only 40s NW of RIC (some models show temps staying in the upper
30s across the NW with the clouds and light rain) and lower-mid 60s
SE (where there will be more sunshine). There is quite a bit of
uncertainity in forecast temps from the the south-central VA
Piedmont to RIC Metro, and solutions range from the low-mid 40s to
upper 50s here partly depending on the arrival of clouds/precip.
Will keep NBM temps in the forecast for now. Drying out Sunday night
and Monday as the low moves into SE Canada, its trailing cold front
moves to our south, and high pressure briefly builds over the
northern Mid-Atlantic. Cool on Monday with highs only in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 210 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cool weather continues through next week inland with occasional
  days of mild weather possible across SE VA and NE NC.

- A more widespread wetting rain likely from late Monday night into
  Tuesday night.

- Rain may start as a period of light freezing rain across portions
  of the Piedmont Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the
area from late Mon night through Tue night. However, the exact track
of the low and amount of cold air remains uncertain. The general
model consensus is for the high to quickly retreat to Maine/New
Brunswick/Nova Scotia by Tuesday morning. As the previous forecaster
mentioned, the forecast sfc low track/evolution resembles a Miller B
setup as a weak surface low develops over the Southeast on
Monday/Monday night before energy transfers to a coastal low that is
progged to track from the Carolina coastal plain NNE to the northern
Mid-Altantic/Northeast coast from Tue AM-Tue evening.

Mainly dry for the first part of Mon night with temperatures
initially falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Precipitation
quickly overspreads the area from SW-NE early Tue AM and temps
likely level off then rise a few degrees later Mon night. Most areas
will see plain rain from this event, but depending on the track of
the low and onset time of the precip, it could start as light
freezing rain NW of Richmond (best chc in Louisa/Fluvanna Counties).
The cold airmass will be shallow so not expecting any snow at the
onset. With the lack of appreciable CAA and the rapidly retreating
high, temps should quickly rise to 32-33F within a few hours of the
onset of the precip even if it begins to rain with temps initially
below freezing. And it is entirely possible that we don`t see any
wintry precip at all. As of now, NBM probs for 0.01" of ice
accretion are 20-25% in the Piedmont (though even this could cause
slick spots on side roads if temps are initially below freezing
given that precip is beginning at night). Probs for 0.10"+ of
freezing rain are extremely low which makes sense given the setup.
Tuesday will be a cool and rainy day with highs mainly in the 40s,
with 50s SE. Temps likely don`t get out of the 30s on Tuesday in the
Piedmont.

Any precip likely ends Tuesday evening-Tuesday night before any
changeover back to light snow can occur (though lows fall to below
freezing across inland areas and the MD Eastern Shore by Wed AM).
Still think that rainfall totals could be fairly substantial and the
probs for >1" of rain from the 00z EPS/GEFS have increased to 40-60%
across SE VA/NE NC and are 30-40% farther NW. Appears that the
majority of the FA has a high chc of seeing 0.5" of rain with this
system. Otherwise, cool wx persists for the rest of the week with
highs mainly in the 40s-lower 50s and lows in the mid 20s-30s.
Another system brings a chc for precip by next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1215 AM EST Friday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z/28 TAF period with
mainly clear skies (outside of a few mid/high level clouds
mainly at SBY during the day today). WNW-NW Winds have
increased to 7-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt (highest at the coast)
as a secondary push of cold advection has overspread the area.
Deep mixing will allow winds to increase to ~15 kt with gusts to
20-25 kt today, perhaps 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt at SBY.
Winds decrease late this aftn/this evening and eventually become
light or calm tonight (except at the immediate coast) as high
pressure builds overhead.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through at least Saturday
night. High pressure builds over the area Friday night into
Saturday with lighter winds expected.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 210 AM EST Friday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect through late tonight due to
  elevated NW winds.

- Benign conditions return Saturday into early Sunday with high
  pressure, then another period of SCAs is possible Sunday
  night/Monday behind the next cold front.

- A complex system brings degraded marine conditions Tuesday
  into Wednesday of next week, with SCAs likely and low-end
  gales possible.

Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all marine
zones this morning with NW winds averaging 15-25 kt. High pressure
builds over the MS Valley later today, but the pressure gradient
will remain compressed over the local area through tonight. In
combination with continued cold air advection, elevated winds are
expected to persist into tonight and early Saturday morning.
Occasional gusts up to 30-35 kt are also possible, especially in the
upper Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters. SCAs are in effect
through 7 PM for the upper rivers, 10 PM for the lower James and
Currituck Sound, and 4 AM Sat for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal
waters. Given the predominantly offshore wind direction through
Friday night, seas are only expected to build to 3-5 ft, highest 10-
20 nm offshore. Waves in the bay generally remain in the 2-3 ft
range, with 3-4 ft waves mainly confined to the bay-side of the VA
Eastern Shore. The high settles near area early Saturday with winds
gradually decreasing by daybreak, followed by light and variable
winds in the afternoon and evening. Winds become southerly late
Saturday night and then SW Sunday as a cold front approaches from
the W and the high shifts well offshore to our NE. Don`t expect to
meet SCA criteria Sunday, but a few gusts to 20-25 kt are possible
in the northern coastal waters. A period of SCAs are then
increasingly likely late Sunday night through Monday morning as
northerly winds increase to around 20 kt behind the front.

Another cold front and accompanying low pressure system are expected
to impact the waters Tuesday. A period of SCAs is likely Tuesday
into Wednesday, with some model guidance suggesting some potential
for gales later Tuesday/early Wednesday. Local wind probs for
frequent >34 kt gusts are 20-30% with the EPS probs higher and
around 50%. Still, the exact evolution remains a bit uncertain as
the low may move directly through the region, complicating the wind
direction and speed forecast.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ633-
     638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ635>637.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...LKB/SW