407
FXAK02 KWNH 062253
PMDAK

Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
552 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 12Z Sun Nov 10 2024 - 12Z Thu Nov 14 2024

...Overview...

A fairly progressive pattern will persist across the region next
week, with several low pressure systems moving across the Gulf of
Alaska. These systems will create hazardous marine conditions,
producing gale to near storm force winds over the open waters, and
may also bring periods of moderate precipitation and gusty winds
to the Gulf Coast. Later next week, there is potential for a low
pressure system to bring hazardous conditions to the Bering Sea
and surrounding land areas; however, there is a large amount of
uncertainty surrounding the details of this system that will need
to be resolved in the next few days.


...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

The weather pattern early next week shows high predictability with
good model agreement on the progression of two low pressure
systems in the Gulf of Alaska. Predictability returns to near and
then slightly below average mid/late next week as model spread
increases, especially with the potential Bering Sea low. The WPC
forecast blend consisted of the best clustered guidance from the
12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET and GEFS/ECENS/CMCE. The CMC was excluded from
the blend as it seemed to be an outlier compared to other
guidance, though the CMC solution could still be a possibility.
High predictability during the first half of the forecast period
allowed for the WPC forecast blend to consist of majority
deterministic guidance (65%), after which the ensemble guidance
was weighted higher than the deterministic guidance. This blend
maintains WPC continuity from the previous forecast cycle.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A couple of low pressure systems will traverse the Gulf of Alaska
next week. The first will pass south of the state on Sunday and
approach Southeast Alaska on Monday, and the second system will
follow the first, approaching Southeast Alaska by Wednesday. These
systems will produce hazardous conditions over the Gulf waters and
could bring rounds of moderate precipitation and gusty winds to
portions of the Gulf Coast. Winds over the open waters will likely
reach gale to near storm force intensities. Gusty winds along the
Gulf Coast will be less intense. but there is potential for some
gale force gap winds along the eastern Aleutians and Alaskan
Peninsula on Sunday.

Models have been showing an Arctic low moving into the Bering Sea
mid-next week, and a strong wave of low pressure developing along
the trailing cold front and moving swiftly into the Bering Sea
later next week. There is a large amount of uncertainty
surrounding the timing, location, and intensity of this system,
but there is potential for hazardous conditions to develop over
the Bering and western and southwestern Alaska. This system will
be monitored closely in the coming days as models are able to
resolve more details.


Dolan


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html

$$