252
FXAK02 KWNH 092020
PMDAK

Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
419 PM EDT Sun Mar 09 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Mar 13 2025 - 12Z Mon Mar 17 2025

...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

Prefer a composite of best clustered model guidance from the 12
UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian valid for Thursday into Saturday in a
pattern with good ensemble support. Forecast spread increases
through longer tine frames, lending guidance preference towards
the ensemble means to maintain max WPC product continuity.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Guidance offers some timing/path differences, but now show a more
common conduit to bring Northwest Canada upper trough/low energy
gradually and generally westward across the Interior through the
week that could squeeze out some local snow showers in a slowly
cooling pattern. Pressure gradients underneath a lingering Arctic
high could also result in enhanced winds, especially over the
Northwest/North Alaskan coasts and favored inland terrain.

Meanwhile, a sprawling low pressure system remains slated to
organize and track out from to the south of the Aleutians by
Thursday to enhance winds before sliding offshore over the Gulf of
Alaska/Northeast Pacific Friday/next weekend as mainly a maritime
hazard. Expect periods of light to locally moderate precipitation
on the northern periphery of the storm into coastal
SouthCentral/Southeast Alaska. The guidance signal also continues
to grow in support of a deep low pressure/frontal system toward
the Aleutians next weekend and onward to monitor as an impactful
storm, especially given upper flow amplification.

Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html

$$