252
FXAK02 KWNH 252331
PMDAK

Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
731 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Valid 12Z Tue 29 Apr 2025 - 12Z Sat 03 May 2025

...Overview...
For much of next week, a mean upper low is forecast to waver near
and over the Bering Sea, pinned in place by an Arctic ridge to
the north and rounds of ridging over eastern Alaska and western
Canada. Spokes of the trough may poke into western parts of the
state at times. Meanwhile the storm track on the southern side of
the upper low will lead to a cyclone approaching southeast AK and
the AK Panhandle late next week, brining a heavy rain threat.



...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Recent model guidance showed reasonable agreement. For the
pressures, 500 hPa heights, and winds, a compromise of the 12z
runs of the UKMET, GFS, and ECMWF were utilized with some
weighting of the 12z NAEFS and 00z ECMWF ensemble means later on.
The rest of the grids were more heavily weighted to the 19z NBM.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
The pattern will be cloudy for much of the state, with the
heaviest precipitation saved for south-central AK and the AK
Panhandle late next week.  Cooler than normal temperatures are
likely for northern Alaska into the Yukon Flats through much of
next week due to persistent flow around the southeast periphery of
the Arctic ridge. Meanwhile warmer than average temperatures are
expected for western Alaska and across much of the Interior early
next week due to the persistent cloud cover. Anomalies will
generally be warmer for morning lows relative to those for daytime
highs. Southern coastal areas into Southeast Alaska should see
near to above average lows and below average highs much of the
period during rounds of wet weather.


Roth/Tate


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html

$$