208
FXAK67 PAJK 111342
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
542 AM AKDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SHORT TERM...
Early Saturday morning a prominent 1032mb high is dominating the
gulf, with outflow winds less than 25 knots permeating through the
northern inner channels. Surface observations show this northerly
flow clearly, with Lynn Canal reporting moderate to fresh breezes
over the last 24 hours and dew points plummeting from the dry
arctic source region combined with down sloping dynamics. Moving
through Saturday clear and dry continues to be the theme, with any
fog lifting through the morning. Saturday afternoon northerly
winds weaken as the surface high continues to shift into British
Columbia, driving easterly gap winds out of Taku, Stikine, and
Unuk River Inlets. Sunday widespread heavy rain fills in across
the northern coast as a gale force low moves along the Aleutian
storm track. Light to moderate rain spreads east Sunday night,
with southeasterly winds filling in across the inner channels.
More details on wind in the marine section below and rain in the
long term.

.LONG TERM...
Sunday will see a slow return to an active pattern, with rain
chances slowly spreading from west to east. This incoming rain is
a result of a deep trough, associated with post tropical system
Halong moving up through the Bering, will push out our ridge to
the east. Fortunately for SE AK, our area looks to be mostly
removed from the strong winds and very heavy rain associated with
the system. What will be present is a weakening, occluded front
pushing west to east, bringing near normal to below normal winds
for this time of year for a frontal passage and modest rainfall
for Yakutat. For Yakutat, there is expected to be a long duration
period of unidirectional from the southwest, fully saturated air
moving into the area. Combined with orographic effects, expecting
an efficient rain maker with rain totals between 3.5-4.5 inches in
48 hours. Leaned toward the higher amounts due to the significant
warm air advection, and aligned mountains for good orographic
lift.

Expecting to see the aloft trough slide to the east Monday night
into Tuesday, which will see lee side troughing on the east side
of the Coast Mountains and in the southern Yukon. This combined
with strong cold air advection pushing in behind the trough is a
good setup for a southerly push up Chatham Strait, Stephens
Passage, and Lynn Canal, with wind speeds ranging from 20-30
knots.

Beyond Tuesday, the active pattern is expected to continue. Early
indications of another front for mid to late week are definitely
there, although this does not look out of the ordinary for
October.

&&

.AVIATION.../through Sunday morning/
Predominate VFR conditions across the panhandle this morning
under mostly clear skies with a nuisance FEW to SCT deck AoB 500ft
at Yakutat, Juneau, and Klawock.

Through the rest of this morning, not anticipating widespread fog
development with drier air working its way into the panhandle,
however, cant rule out intermittent reductions in CIGS/Visbys down
to IFR/LIFR at Juneau, Yakutat, and Klawock as nearby shallow fog
passes by or SCT deck becomes BKN briefly through early morning.
By early afternoon, expecting VFR conditions to prevail through
the rest of the TAF period across the panhandle under a FEW deck
to SKC conditions.

Winds will remain light and variable through the TAF period,
generally 10kts or less, but could see an isolated gust up to
20kts through the afternoon , with all returning near 5kt or less
and variable into Sunday morning. No significant LLWS concerns at
this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters:
A 1032mb high is currently dominating the gulf early Saturday
morning, driving NW winds along the coast of moderate to fresh
breezes, with strong breezes impacting Dixon Entrance. Taking a
peek at the spectral density data from our buoys we see fresh west
to northwest seas 8 to 11 ft at 9 seconds, with some hint of
westerly swell generated by stout outflow from Cook Inlet.
Expecting these winds to moderate over the next 24 hours as the
surface high shifts east, with a gale force low riding the
Aleutian storm track into the northern coast through the start of
the week; anticipate easterly winds to build along Cape St. Elias,
reaching near-gales by Sunday afternoon and gale force by Monday
morning.

Inside Waters:
Weak outflow in Lynn Canal (less than 25 knots) and northerly
winds continue to impact the inner channels in response to a quick
moving surface high pushing east into British Columbia. Northerly
winds will back down through Saturday afternoon as the pressure
gradient relaxes, with prominent easterly opening river inlets
like Taku, Stikine, and Unuk seeing an increase in easterly gap
winds. Current pressure gradient highlights high probability of
easterly fresh to strong breezes impacting these areas Saturday
night into Sunday, something to watch for small skiffs planning on
crossing the aforementioned inlets, especially on a flooding tide
helping to stand up seas. Easterly winds become more organized in
Icy Strait Sunday as a gale force low moves into the gulf, winds
should settle to moderate breezes for most of the channel, with
Northern Lynn Canal hitting fresh to strong breezes out of the
south by Sunday evening. Anticipate widespread strong breezes to
near-gale force conditions for many inner channels by Monday
night/Tuesday morning.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>643-661>664.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...AP

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