706
FXAK67 PAJK 061340
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
540 AM AKDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SHORT TERM...
Rain continues this morning as a front works inland across the
Panhandle. This front continues to bring periods of moderate and
heavy rain to the area as well as some isolated areas of stronger
winds. This front is expected to move through by the morning hours
and behind it, showers are expected to become the main concern
across the panhandle. The one exception to this is along the
Northern Gulf coast where there is a potential for isolated
thunderstorms during the day today. This is something that will
need to be watched during the day.

.LONG TERM...
Mean 500 mb trough that lingers over the state and Gulf of Alaska
through the period is the main driving force of the mid to
extended forecast. That trough does not move all that much with
only a slight eastward drift noted by late next week. Rotating
around that trough are a series of shortwaves and troughs that
will continue to effect the area on and off through the end of
next week.

Main effects of the persistent of this trough for the panhandle
is a trend toward generally damp conditions as the various
shortwave move through. There is no clear signal for any
significantly wet systems through late week at this time though. I
also expect that there will be periods of dry in between these
shortwaves, with Monday starting to show up as the best chance for
a 12 to 24 hour dry period in the mid range. Winds will also be
on upward and downward trends through the period as individual
systems pass through. Sunday is currently looking to have the most
wind as a strong southerly push behind a shortwave will be
bringing a burst of southerly winds to the inner channels. Most
marine areas could reach 20 kt with northern Lynn possibly
reaching 25 kt midday on Sunday. Murky forecast confidence on wind
past Monday as timing on shortwaves becomes inconsistent though
at least breezy conditions will likely continue into the late
week. Lastly, a trend toward cooler weather for the panhandle
especially by mid to late next week is also in the cards. However
the cold air is not coming from Canada. Instead it is being
dragged east from the Bering Sea area and its long journey will
have caused the air mass to moderate by the time it gets here.
This will still cause temperatures to cool (overnight lows getting
back down into the 30s) and snow levels to drop across the area
(down to 1200 to 1700 ft), but most areas at sea level (except
maybe the extreme north) will stay above freezing for the most
part with mostly rain expected.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Monday/...
Broad area of low pressure remains entrenched across the Gulf of
Alaska, keeping persistent systems and fronts across the area
through Sunday and into the early week. Most recent front is
gradually pushing into the southern panhandle early Sunday
morning, overspreading rain showers and brief periods of elevated
winds. As front pushes inland and gradually decays in the northern
panhandle, expecting precipitation and predominate MVFR flight
conditions to continue through 18z with CIGs AoB 4000ft and
intermittent visbys down to 4SM. By this afternoon, a brief break
in widespread precipitation for majority of SEAK TAF sites
(outside Yakutat) expected behind the front, changing to an
isolated showery regime with flight conditions improving to VFR
with CIGS AoA 5000ft from South to North through 00z. Winds will
remain elevated, around 15kts with gusts up to 30kts through the
afternoon, diminishing to around 10kts or less late Sunday night
across much of the area.

Main aviation concern for today will be for Yakutat as a
secondary small shortwave system develops offshore over the
central Gulf  by 18z, quickly pushing into the NE Gulf Coast
through 03z Monday. As this second front pushes inland, expect
widespread heavier precipitation with surface winds near 20kts
sustained and easterly to southeasterly LLWS redeveloping around
2000ft up to 40kts Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Remnants of the gale force front continue to work inland across
SE AK this morning. Winds through the Inner Channels have remained
fairly light ahead of the front but are expected to switch around
and become more southerly as the front continues inland. Some
areas could see winds increase to fresh breezes but there is some
potential for strong breezes to develop. Seas are expected to
remain less of a concern during this time. For the outer coast and
Gulf waters, winds are expected to decrease behind the front
initially before increasing to near gales and gales as the
stronger winds wrap around the backside of the low as it tracks to
the west. Seas in the Gulf are expected to remain around 10-14 ft
but will increase with the increase in wind speeds that is
expected later this morning. Wave heights could reach up to 20-25
ft between the latter morning to late tonight before starting to
diminish.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from this afternoon through late tonight for AKZ317.
     Strong Wind from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through this afternoon
     for AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ642>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-053-641.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....EAL
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...SF

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