187
FXAK67 PAJK 210534
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
934 PM AKDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.UPDATE...Update to the Aviation section to include the 06z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A low pressure continues to move northward into the
Gulf of Alaska which will be our next impact to the weather for
SE AK. Elsewhere across the panhandle this afternoon, some low
clouds and showers continue to hang around portions of the
panhandle while some clearing has allowed for some warming
temperatures. These light showers are expected to persist across
the northern panhandle through the evening before dissipating into
the morning hours tomorrow. Rainfall amounts from these showers
are expected to remain on the lighter side but an occasional
period of heavier precipitation would not be unheard of. As the
next area of low pressure moves northward, it will bring increased
winds to the outer coast starting late tonight and into tomorrow.
Sustained winds from Dixon Entrance to Cape Edgecumbe could reach
as high 20-25 kt while farther north, 15-20 kt is likely. For
places across SE AK, the biggest impact from this system will be
increased cloud cover and winds switching in response to the low.
But the strongest winds are expected to remain offshore.

.LONG TERM...
Key messages:
 - Low pressure remains in the gulf through Saturday morning as
   it dissipates.
 - A ridge builds over the gulf Saturday into Sunday.
 - Above normal temperatures are expected for this weekend into
   the start of next week.

Details: The low pressure system near in the gulf will continue to
bring clouds and light rain over the panhandle into Saturday morning
as it dissipates. No significant rain totals are expected with this
low since it remains off shore. It will continue to bring light rain
to most of the panhandle Friday into early Saturday. The strongest
winds associated with this low will be located in the gulf. Offshore
will see winds increase to fresh to strong breezes of 20 to 27 kts
Friday morning. The strongest gulf winds will be west of Baranof
Island. Winds along the inner channels remain below 10 kts for this
time, except for areas near and in Cross Sound. Winds in cross sound
are expected to increase to 15 to 20 kts Friday morning. The
strongest of all these winds decrease Friday night into Saturday
morning as the low dissipates and moves southwest.

As this low dissipates, a ridge begins to develop in its place. This
ridge will allow for clearing skies and warmer temperatures.
Temperatures at 850 mb increase to around 10 to 13 degrees C. The
warmest of these temperatures are located near the far southern
panhandle. Those upper level temperatures, with clearing skies,
indicate temperatures increasing into the low to mid 70s. These
warmer temperatures are expected to continue into the middle of next
week.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR is in the forecast for SE AK tonight into
Thursday. The main exception to this is the fog potential the Icy
Strait corridor, south to Petersburg in the inner channels. If fog
does develop, it would start developing here within a couple hours
with impacts to TAFs sites possible around 08 to 10z. Fog looks
to stick around to around the 15z to 18z time frame before
clearing up, leaving behind VFR skies and light winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: A low moving north in the Gulf of
Alaska is expected to bring strong breezes to maybe some isolated
near gales farther offshore.  Seas are expected to increase during
the overnight hours and peaking around 6-7 ft for the offshore
areas. The low is expected to weaken through the day on Thursday
into Thursday evening but will stay elevated through Friday before
finally starting to move out of the area Friday night into Saturday
morning.

Inside Waters: Winds have started to come up across parts of the
Inner Channels due in response to heating occurring in Canada
allowing for an increased wind flowing inland. Winds will start to
weaken as temperatures cool before switching around in response to
the low moving closer to the panhandle. Most of the Inner Channel
winds are expected to remain around moderate breezes or less. But
the exception to that could be Cross Sound which could see winds
jumping up to strong breezes as the low moves closer to the
panhandle.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...SF

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