900
FXAK67 PAJK 050006
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
306 PM AKST Wed Dec 4 2024

.SHORT TERM...Rain has decreased in coverage during the day today
for the panhandle with some areas still seeing rain at the time of
writing. The rain is expected to increase in coverage this evening
with the heaviest rain expected for the NE Gulf coast. The rest of
the panhandle is still could see an inch to inch and a half with
potentially localized higher amounts. With the incoming front,
raised winds to match the current thinking as well as the
precipitation amounts.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/...Warm and wet weather for
the start of the mid range, then a transition to a short drier and
cooler period, then back to the warm and wet weather. Ensembles have
been overall consistent depicting the mid range weather pattern.
Operational models starting to fall more in line but still
differences on location and timing of features Friday and Saturday.

The Thursday gale force front low will shear apart into early Friday
with diminishing precip and winds. For Friday night another low
tracks towards the SE Gulf with winds nearing gale force. With the
more southerly position of this system majority of precip will fall
over the southern half of the panhandle. Drying trend for central
and northern regions starting Friday afternoon continues into
Saturday as the low center moves over the southern panhandle. As the
low tracks eastward Sunday will have highest probability of dry
weather. With the low to the south winds will shift northerly and
bring in some cooler air. Overnight lows likely dropping below
freezing but if there is precip, temps will likely be a bit warmer
thus no snow, and if there is no precip, temps may be colder, but no
precip equals no snow. Beyond the weekend mid level pattern with
low to the west and ridge near SE AK puts us back into southerly
flow will another series of fronts tracking in bringing warm temps
and more moderate to heavy rainfall. Highest rainfall amounts aimed
towards the NE Gulf Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions deteriorate through the overnight hours as
another front moves into the panhandle. Expect widespread LLWS
across the panhandle, while ceilings fall into MVFR for most
locations, with IFR conditions possible for a few sites.
Conditions begin to improve tomorrow morning, especially across
the southern panhandle, before another system arrives Thursday
afternoon through Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...A gale force front is expected to move into the Gulf
this evening bringing 11-16ft seas with the front. Seas through
the Inner Channels are expected to respond as well with the
highest seas being in the Clarence Strait area. This front is
expected to move through quickly tonight before dissipating across
the area. A second gale force front is then expected to move into
the Gulf Thursday night into Friday morning bringing 10-15ft seas
for the outside waters.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...With the return of moderate to heavy rain to the
panhandle, along with a melting snowpack, rises in rivers and
streams are expected during the overnight hours with the potential
for some to reach minor flood stage. As such, issued a flood watch
for those zones where this is concern for some potential flooding.
Areas outside of the watch should still keep an eye on smaller
creeks and streams for rises.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through late tonight for
     AKZ317.
     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for AKZ320-325.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ323.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-031>035-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...SF
HYDROLOGY...SF

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