282
FXAK67 PAJK 162248
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
248 PM AKDT Fri May 16 2025

.SHORT TERM...Occluded front and an associated embedded low
running up the outer coast will continue pushing inland through
Friday afternoon. Southerly flow will persist over the panhandle
today with continuing mid level moisture and orographic lift
bringing light precipitation. This will continue to decrease
Friday night into Saturday, with winds continuing to slacken in
that timeframe as well. For more information see the Marine
discussion. While precipitation will continue a downward trend,
cloud cover will stick around, with parts of the southern
panhandle likely to see some patchy fog due to continued
saturation and drop in surface winds. Overall a damp and cool
weekend ahead, with the northern panhandle getting the best chance
for warmer afternoon highs if cloud cover thins out soon enough.

.LONG TERM...Continuing form the short term, confidence continues
for decreasing cloud cover and weak outflow developing Sunday
night into Monday for the northern panhandle as a near gale force
low approaches the southern panhandle. This feature is expected to
stall SW of Prince of Wales Island, leading to persistent showers
with heaviest rain rates expected Monday morning. Some model
differences remain in the track of the low, which could lead to
more of the panhandle receiving light rain. Overall as this low is
expected to dissipate, the overall flow will shift onshore, with
light showers and breaks continuing into mid to late next week.
For the northern panhandle, clearing skies and developing weak
outflow with downsloping winds will lead to warmer daytime highs
to start the week.

&&

.AVIATION...A quick moving low has been zipping north along the
coast today. As the panhandle transitions to the backside of this
low, the area will see onshore flow, which would keep the clouds and
rain showers in place through tonight. Saturday, ridging builds over
SE AK which should lift aviation flying conditions.

So for the forecast - mainly MVFR conditions will be found around
the area through tonight with improving conditions from south to
north beginning Saturday morning as the ridge builds. No wind or
LLWS concerns at this time.

&&

.MARINE...Outside: Friday afternoon satellite derived winds
highlighted the SE fresh to strong breezes weakening as W-SW winds
of moderate to fresh breezes moves in along our coast. Buoy 84
wave spectrum indicated swell domination, focused at 6 to 8ft near
11s from the SW, with seas less than 4ft out of the SE. Expect
WSW swell to continue over the next 24 hours with significant
heights near 5 to 7ft. Main threat for westerly fresh breezes is
for mariners operating along Chatham/Sumner ocean entrances and
west coast of Prince of Wales into Dixon Entrance.

A gale force low center will be located off the coast of Haida
Gwaii late Sunday increasing ESE winds to near-gale force for our
coastal waters in the southern Panhandle. There is growing
confidence for gale force southerly winds in Hecate Strait Monday
which would drive fresh seas of 9 to 12ft into far southern
Clarence Strait.


Inside: Chatham Strait and Stephens Passage is currently seeing a
surge of southerly winds reaching near 15 knots. The afternoon
forecast package has delayed this surge into Lynn Canal a few
hours, with this push of elevated southerly winds likely
overnight. By Saturday morning winds across most of the area will
be light with some low clouds and light rain; however, things
should clear up a bit in the afternoon. Main threat for southerly
moderate breezes Saturday will be northern Lynn Canal.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...AP

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