252
FXAK67 PAJK 301335
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
535 AM AKDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SHORT TERM...Through Monday morning...Forecast remains on track
with the weak ridge dissipating as a weakening front pushes into
the panhandle before dissipating. On/off light rain will persist
through the period with the increased sky cover keeping temps
cooler than Saturday. Expect high temps generally in the mid to
upper 60s. Southerly winds will increase this afternoon as the
ridge pinches ahead of the approaching boundary, so increased
marine winds to 15-20kt during this time. Biggest impact to the
forecast was the addition of dense fog for Petersburg area through
9am this morning. Conditions already improving on webcam imagery
so wouldn`t be surprised if the advisory isn`t dropped earlier.

.LONG TERM...Little changes made to the long term forecast heading
through the middle of the week and the Independence Day holiday. A
weak frontal band from a decaying low will continue to bring
increased shower activity to the southern and central panhandle into
Monday before beginning to diminish. A ridge of high pressure will
build in from the south over the panhandle, leading to some skies
clearing by Wednesday for the inner channels. For the outer coast,
the transition to a more persistent WNW and overall onshore flow
will likely lead to marine layer clouds to push in on and off again,
which may lead to slightly lower daytime highs than communities
further inland. Overall maximum temperatures look to remain
seasonably warm ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s.

With the ridge building in, winds for the inner channels are set to
become more light and variable by Wednesday and into the later half
of the week, with the exception of local sea breeze effects such as
in northern Lynn Canal which may become more pronounced once skies
begin to clear out. For the gulf coast, modest winds of around 15 kt
are expected out of the NW as the ridge moves into position in the
eastern gulf before the gradient begins to slacken slightly.

Looking ahead to the Independence Day holiday, conditions look to be
fairly dry and warm Wednesday and on through Thursday morning. By
Thursday afternoon, model guidance begins to show signs of rain
returning to the panhandle from a system moving into the southern
gulf. Model spread is increasing during this timeframe though, so
there is lower forecaster confidence in terms of the timing of this
feature as well as the extent of its influence over the panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION...Widely varying CIGs is the story of the day. Mainly
MVFR CIGs with some IFR and VFR being reported. A weakening front
approaching the region this afternoon/evening will maintain
chances for -SHRA with CIGS becoming more persistent low MVFR to
IFR after 01/00Z.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ326.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...BC/EAB

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