076
FXAK67 PAJK 130614 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1014 PM AKDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.UPDATE...Update due to 06z TAF issuance. Every thing remaining on
track. Rain from the next system has spread into the Northeast
gulf including Yakutat so they will start withe ceilings around
2000 ft tonight. The lower conditions and the rain will spread
into the northern half of panhandle by Monday morning. As front
moves into the area Wind shear and turbulence may be a issue near
airports or the terrain.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 403 pm Sun Oct 12...

SHORT TERM...
Key Points:
 - A system pushes into the northern panhandle this afternoon
   increasing winds and precipitation chances for the N.
   Panhandle.
 - The southern panhandle remains relatively dry with light
   winds.

Details: Overcast skies and increasing winds have begun near the
northern gulf and panhandle. Overcast skies will continue to push
into the northern panhandle into tonight with increasing rain
chances. Yakutat will see the heaviest rain with 24 hour totals
near 2 to 3 inches. The highest rain rates are most likely to
occur Monday morning near Yakutat. For those far north areas, 6
hour QPF chances show there is around a 30% chance of more than
0.75 inches falling and around a 50 to 60% chance of greater than
0.5 inches. Other parts of the panhandle will see a lot less rain
with amounts up to 1 to 1.5 inches with little to no
precipitation south of Frederick Sound.

Winds in the northern gulf have already begun to increase to strong
breezes with gusts up to 35 kts as of this afternoon. Winds will
continue to slightly increase and move into the eastern gulf coast
tonight into tomorrow morning. Winds along the far northern
panhandle will also increase to around 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. These stronger winds first reach Yakutat tonight and
continue into the morning. They will then reach the Haines and
Skagway areas early tomorrow morning and then remain elevated.

LONG TERM...Active weather pattern continues throughout
the week as systems continue to impact the panhandle, the 500 mb
ridge beginning to be pushed eastward as shortwaves push in from the
west throughout the week. Following the rain impacting the NE Gulf
Coast Monday will be a weak low moving up from the south, bringing
another round of brief moderate to heavy rainfall to the NE Gulf
Tuesday. The low will move onshore around Yakutat by Tuesday night,
bringing light to moderate rainfall across the rest of the panhandle
throughout the day before it moves onshore and dissipates. There is
a brief break in the precipitation as this low moves onshore before
the next system moves in, particularly in the southern panhandle as
chances diminish into Wednesday morning. For this system on Tuesday,
the northeast Gulf coast is expected to see between 1 and 2 inches
of rain in 24 hours, and the northern panhandle will see below 1
inch in 24 hours. Much lower amounts are expected to the southeast
of Sitka as the precipitation largely moves northward and inland.

The next system moving into the Gulf Wednesday morning will bring a
gale force front across the northeastern Gulf, bringing 35 to 40 kt
winds along the northern coast from Cape Fairweather to Kayak
Island. The GFS and Canadian ensembles are leaning towards higher
wind speeds associated with this system, however the EC ensemble is
favoring keeping it only having probabilities for gale force winds
along Fairweather and near Kayak Island, so the wind speeds have
been increased but are at most a high end gale at this time. These
winds in the Gulf will diminish Wednesday night into Thursday
morning as the low lingers offshore to the northwest near Kenai
Peninsula. As the front moves in from east to west, it will begin to
impact the NE Gulf Coast area in the morning before moving across
the rest of the panhandle throughout the day. The system will
continue to bring precipitation throughout the day Thursday before
the low diminishes into Friday. The front moving through Wednesday
will bring 2 to 3 inches of rain in 24 hours to the NE Gulf coast
and Yakutat area between midday Wednesday through midday Thursday,
with the heaviest rates expected Wednesday night with 0.6 to 0.8
inches in 6 hours possible. NBM probabilities show around a 40%
chance of above 0.75 inches in 6 hours for this time frame, and a 30
to 40% chance of seeing above 3 inches in 24 hours. For the rest of
the panhandle, between 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected between
Wednesday night and Thursday night, with potential higher amounts at
higher elevations. The timing of the front is much more in agreement
between models today, it is a matter of the strength and amount of
precipitation that is still quite spread.

Looking a little farther out, there is a chance of again a weak
outflow event at the end of next week Saturday. With a low pressure
system moving to the south of the panhandle, and building high
pressure to around 1020 mb, weak northerly winds can develop.
Similar to this weekend, outflow winds do not look strong at this
moment.

&&

.AVIATION.../through Monday afternoon/
VFR flight conditions across southeast Alaska this afternoon. For
PAYA, mid-layer cloud deck will quickly lower as the system
approaches and brings rain, with MVFR flight conditions expected
by around 03Z this evening, becoming IFR by early Monday morning.
As rain spreads east across the northern/central panhandle
through Monday morning, expect MVFR flight conditions to develop,
likely continuing through the afternoon and into the night.

Increasing winds through the period from Yakutat on across the
northern panhandle, with gusts to 20kts possible. Even stronger
winds and gusts developing at PAGY, up to 20G30kts. Winds will be
lighter across the southern panhandle, generally less than 10kts.
Anticipating LLWS along the N Gulf coast by 03Z this evening as a
front pushes through, with barrier jet winds setting up offshore
of Yakutat, with 30-40kts of shear magnitude. LLWS could develop
Monday morning for PAHN, with stronger southerlies aloft (30kt at
2kft) over lighter easterlies at the surface.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: A gale force low has begun to move into the northern
gulf increasing winds to strong breezes near 25 kts with gale force
gusts near 35 kts. As this low moves east, winds along the far
northern and northeastern gulf coast, are likely to increase to gale
force sustained winds. The strongest of these winds will tonight
into early Monday before they begin to diminish Monday night.
Associated with this system, wave build to 12 to 14 ft along the
north and northeaster gulf coast. A much stronger and more extensive
system envelops the gulf Wednesday as a front pushes its way through
the gulf into the panhandle. This front drives widespread gales and
seas of 12 to 16 ft into the Gulf of Alaska.

Inside Channels: A series of gale force lows move across the Gulf
through the next several days which will help to increase winds
along the inside passage. The first of many systems arrives tonight
increasing the marine areas, from Southern Chatham and north, to
fresh to strong breezes which is 17 to 27 kts. The strongest inner
channel winds will be located near the northern portions of the
panhandle. Northern Lynn Canal is likely to see increases in wind to
25 kts with gusts up to near 30 kts. Winds across the central and
southern channels begin to decrease Monday night, but winds in the
northern channels stay elevated ahead of the next system.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ651-652-664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-053-642>644-662-663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...EAB



Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau