Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
662 FXAK67 PAJK 052343 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 343 PM AKDT Sat Oct 5 2024 .SHORT TERM...Showers primarily over the northern portion of the panhandle and northeast gulf in the post frontal environment. The showers activity over the southern half, is much less. A developing wave moves from the north pacific and then curve north through the eastern gulf and back to the north central gulf as it weakens. The strongest winds will be as low passes by Buoy 46083 west of Cross Sound. Will likely see speeds up to 50 kt or so near the low. The main preciptiation focus will impact the southern half of the panhandle. The front will be slow to move east across the southern panhandle as the front moves north across the remainder of the panhandle with 24 rainfall totals of 2-2.25 inches and roughly half that for the northern panhandle area. Do not expect more than just river rises, but will keep an eye on the status of rainfall and river states. Another issue will be near shore thunderstorm potential north of Sitka this evening and more moving in across the gulf late Sunday and Sunday night. Open cell storm might be over the water, but expect that orographic lifting will assist in the updraft potential. .LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/...Big picture remains that the entirety of the panhandle can expect widespread rain showers through the beginning of next week with some isolated thunderstorms possible, primarily for outer coastal communities from Sitka northward to the Fairweather grounds. By Sunday the main low will be weakening and meander over the gulf, with short wave features rotate around it periodically giving fresh impulses of moisture. With the ongoing widespread showers and overcast or occasionally broken cloud cover, temperatures will remain seasonably cool with some higher elevations, particularly the Klondike Highway, continuing to see mixed precipitation. Minor snow accumulation will remain likely in overnight hours with transition to a mix or all rain during daytime hours. Otherwise the rest of the panhandle at sea level will see crisp cold rain as snow levels range between 3000 and 4000 ft. As mentioned above, these short wave features could lead to small craft conditions for outer coastal waters. By early Tuesday, the parent low is expected to meander into the eastern gulf before turning back to the NW on Wednesday due to a weak ridge moving in from the west. As the system gets closer to the outer coast, a barrier jet could develop with small craft (likely), or possibly near gale force winds developing along the NE gulf coastal waters. Taking a peak into the crystal ball towards the latter half of next week, unsettled weather will continue with another strong storm entering the gulf next weekend with early signs of it being a hefty rainmaker; more than our recent predominantly wind impactful system. Stay up to date with the latest forecast for further developments. && .AVIATION... For remainder of Saturday, rain showers with the potential for embedded thunderstorms and small hail. Simply put, VFR conditions on your flight route could drop to MVFR from SHRA and BR. Rain showers come briefly to an end early Sunday morning before another front moves in bringing MVFR and widespread RA, LLWS, and some TS. && .MARINE...A secondary low behind the early Saturday frontal band moves north and curling to the north central gulf while developing. The winds about the low will increase up to Strong gale force and even small brief period of 50 to 55 kt winds as the low moves west of Cross Sound toward Yakutat. Combined seas increase into the mid teens for heights. Another issue will be near shore thunderstorm potential north of Sitka this evening and more moving in across the gulf late Sunday and Sunday night. Open cell storm might be over the water, but expect that orographic lifting will assist in the updraft potential. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Strong Wind Sunday afternoon for AKZ317 and AKZ318. Strong Wind from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for AKZ323. Strong Wind from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for AKZ329. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ644-664. Gale Warning for PKZ053-641>643-651-652-661>663-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bezenek LONG TERM....STJ AVIATION...AP Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau