Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
553 FXAK67 PAJK 121219 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 419 AM AKDT Wed Mar 12 2025 .SHORT TERM.../Wednesday into Thursday morning/... Early this morning a low continues to move south and east across the gulf, with light showers impacting some areas of the Panhandle. As we move through the day Wednesday, expecting outflow winds to settle in through the inner channels with temperatures cooling and showers dissipating. The surface pressure gradient suggests 17 to 25 knot winds in Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage, with the potential for gale force gusts coming out of major river inlets like Taku Inlet by early Thursday morning. .LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/... Stable weather pattern for SE AK through the week, with primarily clearing skies and drier weather. Main concerns going from mid week and into the weekend are the fresh to strong north to northeasterly breezes. Driving this is downward motion assisting the increase in pressure at the surface in both British Columbia and Yukon. At the same time, multiple low pressure systems will pass south, attempting to push moisture into the panhandle. At this time expect and moisture to still remain mostly south the the region until Friday and the weekend. The result is drier air, and non impressive northeasterly winds to start then some increasing clouds and higher chances for precip to the south. Cold air remains in place in to the weekend with normal to below normal temperatures with larger diurnal swings between maximum and minimum where skies are clear. Any precip falling will likely be snow or a rain snow mix. Looking at a possible warming trend into the following week. Ensemble data as well as the EC AIFS seem to suggest that a weak low will indeed move near Prince of Wales Island for the weekend, the operational GFS and Canadian have more substantial moisture being pulled in from the south. Given the high probability of a lack of moisture (80% chance of below 0.1 inch liquid in 24 hours), not expecting any significant snow accumulation with only a few inches possible. && .AVIATION... /Until 12Z Thursday/... Mid to upper level clouds continue to overspread the middle panhandle from south to north this morning as a weakening low traverses southward down the eastern Gulf of Alaska. Not getting cloud clearing as fast as expected overnight, which has kept most fog development at bay this morning over much of the area. Best chances for IFR to LIFR range CIGs and Visbys remain across the far fringes of the southern panhandle through early morning where some sky clearing has started to develop. Overall, flight conditions will quickly improve to VFR flight category with CIGS AoA 5000ft by mid-morning Wednesday as diurnal heating kicks off and burns off any low level nuisances, going FEW250 to SKC by the afternoon. Winds across the panhandle will remain light through the day, around 10kts or less, outside the usual suspects of Haines and Skagway which could see winds up to 15kts and and isolated gust up to 25kts by this afternoon. No LLWS hazards are expected through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Gulf: As our low in the gulf slides south and east through the day expecting outflow winds of strong breezes coming out of Cross Sound. Beside Cross Sound, expecting east to southeast winds below 15 knots for most of the coast and gulf. Buoy 84 is currently swell dominated from the WSW at 11s with significant heights near 11 to 12ft. Expecting WSW swell to continue to dominate the gulf with heights remaining at or below 12ft, diminishing to as low as 7ft by late Thursday. Late Friday another system moves into the gulf, with southeasterly near-gale force winds likely along our coast and significant wave heights increasing to 14 to 18ft. Inner Channels: Outflow winds are the primary threat over the next few days, expect fresh to strong breezes and fully developed seas near 5ft. For folks planning to navigate across major river inlets like Taku gusts could reach as high as gale force at times by early Thursday morning. Certainly not the strongest outflow event but caution is advised for folks navigating the inner channels in small skiffs. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-641>644-651-661>664-671. && $$ SHORT TERM...AP LONG TERM....PRB AVIATION...NM MARINE...AP Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau