598
FXAK67 PAJK 272329
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
329 PM AKDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/...Primary impacts during
this short term forecast period include a chance of precipitation
tonight and Friday night over the southern outer coast and
continued breezy conditions in locations closest to the Coast
mountains.

High pressure over British Columbia is the main driver for the
breezy conditions as weak to moderate outflow conditions
continue. Windy spots have been and will continue to be Skagway,
Juneau, and Wrangell with lower wind speeds approaching the outer
coast. The current forecast has strongest wind gusts limited to 35
mph or less, but the strength of the outflow could easily and very
abruptly increase.

The chance of precipitation over the southern out coast is a
result of showers being spun off a low near Vancouver Island. The
low will make slow progress to the northwest and weaken as it
moves over the central Gulf. This will keep the chance of
precipitation limited to the southern outer coast.

Thin cloud cover will allow for overnight lows ranging from the
upper 20s to the mid 30s. Daytime highs for Friday will range from
the mid 40s to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM.../Through Wednesday night/...Light precipitation will
linger Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning as a front moves
south to north across the panhandle. Very minimal QPF amounts are
expected as the rain is going to be very light with breaks in
between. The parent low to this front will deteriorate as a ridge
builds over the panhandle. At this same time, winds along the
coast and interior waters will decrease as the low diminishes. The
east west gradient will keep Taku Inlet and Stikine river area
winds elevated until early Sunday.

The ridge over the panhandle will make the early start of the week
dry before the next low enters the gulf Tuesday into Wednesday. This
low will enter the gulf from the northern interior not only bringing
precipitation and wind, but also cooler temperatures. As the low
moves in from the north, winds in the northern gulf and northern
inner channels will increase to fresh to strong breezes. The then
active pattern will then continue through the rest of next week.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through Friday afternoon/...Excellent flying
conditions today in terms of CIGs and VSBY will continue overnight
and through Friday. Offshore flow out of inter passes and inner
channels perpendicular to the prevailing flow will continue to be
quite turbulent. This was evident today in the numerous PIREPS
reporting from near the surface to the flight levels. No LLWS has
been reported but we continue to include this in the Juneau TAF
owing to the conditions being observed in Gastineau Channel

&&

.MARINE.../Through Friday night/...Primary marine issues for this
short term forecast period are winds over the inner channels and
those areas closest to the Coast Mountains. An inverted trough
offshore is acting in conjunction with high pressure over British
Columbia to maintain a steady offshore flow at and near the
surface. This translates into northerly winds over the north-south
oriented channels with small craft intensities of 25 to 30 kts
over Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage with seas as high as 5-6
feet. Southerly shorelines in these areas will be fetch limited
and see lesser wave heights such as on the south shore of Shelter
Island. Maximum winds over the east-west oriented channels will be
over the eastern end of Sumner Strait near the Stikine River
Delta, the eastern entrance of Icy Strait near Couverden, and
Cross Sound. In these areas, expect small craft winds of 25 kts
for much of the short range forecast period.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PCs-013-022-031-643-661>664-671-672.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fritsch
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...Fritsch
MARINE...Fritsch

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