926
FXAK67 PAJK 151259
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
459 AM AKDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Wednesday night/ The panhandle is
currently in a small break between systems this morning. Precip
and winds from yesterday`s system have diminished (though some
gusty winds still linger at Skagway) and mid to high level cloud
cover has cleared out. What has not cleared out is a lot of low
level clouds and some fog over the southern panhandle from
southern Stephens Passage southward that is visible on satellite
imagery. Ceilings down to 200 ft and vis down to a 1/4 mile at
times have been observed (dense fog advisory out for Petersburg
this morning). That fog will likely stick around into mid morning
before diminishing as higher clouds start moving in and southerly
winds start to increase ahead of the next front.

That next front is currently over the western gulf and will be
moving eastward through the day. Current forecast remains on track
for timing and strength. Expect winds to increase through the day
in the gulf (maxing out at min storm force by late this afternoon
and early evening) and will be increasing in the inner channels
this evening and overnight (widespread 25 to 30 kt winds with
isolated min gales while some land areas will likely see gusts as
high as 40 mph. Max winds likely around midnight). More rain will
also be incoming with the heaviest rain rates likely overnight
night Wednesday night (likely in the realm of up to 0.2" per
hour). This front is moving through rather quickly so the heavier
rainfall will likely only last around 6 to 9 hours or so for most
areas with totals reaching around 1 to 2 inches by late Wednesday
night.

.LONG TERM...Not much change to the forecast for Thursday, with
Thursday mainly functioning as the post frontal environment for
the storm force low impacting the area on Wednesday night.
Expecting to see southerly winds kick up to 25-30 knots in the
inner channels associated with the frontal passage, with winds
along the outer coast transitioning to SW near gales behind the
front. It is possible to see some isolated pockets of short term
gale force winds in the inner channels, but expecting to have this
front shear apart as it moves inland.

The big portion of the midrange forecast that raises the most
questions is late Friday into the weekend. Both the EPS and GEFS
have large discrepancies between the ensemble means, with run to
run consistency favoring individual camps. Needless to say, a
relatively tough forecast. The GEFS has the most spread between
its individual members, but is in general agreement for a strong
low moving NE to near the southern panhandle. With it, it is
possible for gale force winds with even some indications of storm
force winds for Clarence Strait and western coast of Prince of
Wales Island. The Euro ensemble shows a significantly weaker
system, pushed back much later to this weekend. Leaned toward the
GEFS for todays forecast as this matched with the deterministic
euro and gfs, but confidence for this system is not strong at the
moment.

&&

.AVIATION...As one system moves out of the area, another is set to
take its place later in the day Wednesday. As of the 12z TAF
issuance, low stratus and some fog have begun to expand across the
central and southern panhandle as higher clouds vacate the area. By
mid morning high clouds will move in from the west from the next
system, which may allow low level clouds in the southern panhandle
to stick around into the late morning hours. A storm force front
will bring increasing winds and LLWS as it approaches Wednesday
afternoon. These winds and associated moderate to heavy rain will
then gradually spread inland through the evening hours. While CIGs
and VIS are expected to drop within heavier showers, the primary
aviation hazard Wednesday will be strong winds and turbulence,
particularly along the northern and northeast gulf coast as the
front approaches.

&&

.MARINE...
Gulf Waters: Winds are rather light with 6 to 9 ft seas (most of
that is from a 7 to 8 ft SW swell of around 8 sec period) across
the gulf this morning. That will be changing through the day as a
storm force front moves eastward from the western gulf. Expect E
to SE widespread gale force winds by afternoon with min storm
force for the northern gulf waters. Highest winds will be this
afternoon into early this evening before frontal passage weakens
winds and switches the direction to SW Wed night. Following this
the parent low will be moving across the NW gulf Thursday into
Friday bringing an area of W gale force winds to the central gulf
waters and widespread 25 to 30 kt winds for the near shore waters
especially south of Cape Fairweather which will last into Friday.
Seas will also be an issue with up to 15 to 22 ft seas associated
with the higher winds ahead of the front. Seas will then remain
high (and may even increase especially in the central gulf) into
Friday as the high and long lasting W winds across the gulf
Thursday and Friday build a rather large 15 to 20 ft W swell with
a period of 12 to 16 sec.

Inside Waters: Fog is this main issue this morning with
visibility dropping to less than a mile in places from about
Frederick Sound southward. That fog should diminish through the
day as cloud cover increases and winds start to increase from the
next front. That front is expected to reach the inner channels by
this evening (Yakutat Bay will see the wind by this afternoon)
with wide spread small craft winds of 25 to 30 kt expected
overnight Wednesday night (some areas could see a brief period of
min gale force as well). Winds diminish into Thursday as SW
onshore flow takes over, but the northern inner channels (mainly
the north/south oriented channels) and ocean entrances will likely
see an extended period of 25 kt southerly to southwesterly winds
through Friday. Seas will top out around 6 to 7 feet in the inner
channels with the higher winds tonight and should diminish down to
3 to 5 ft for Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ317-
     323.
     Strong Wind this evening for AKZ322.
     Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ325-
     327.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ326.
     Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ328.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ644-651-652-664-671-672.
     Gale Warning for PKZ021-022-641>643-661>663.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-031>036-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...EAL

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