091
FXAK67 PAJK 241803 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1003 AM AKDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.UPDATE...For the 18Z aviation update, continued the trend towards
dry weather and clear skies through the daytime hours, while
reintroducing fog and low stratus potential for many outer coastal
and Icy Strait Corridor sites for the overnight timeframe.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Fog and low stratus continues to move through the Inner Channels
this morning. Dense fog has developed in the Icy Strait corridor
around Gustavus this morning reducing visibilities down to 1/4
mile. Elsewhere, skies remain clear over the panhandle on land.
With high pressure expected to remain over the area, minimal
changes were made to the forecast except expanding the areas of
fog for today and tonight. Biggest change was to up the
temperatures in the Chilkat Valley area as observations during the
day yesterday showed a brief period of temperatures reaching 80
degrees. With the likelihood of seeing a similar trend today,
upped high temperatures and expanded the Heat advisories to
include this region for today.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday/...
Key messages:
- Ridging builds over the gulf and stays around through middle of
  next week
- Sunny and dry with above normal temperatures, warmest
  temperatures in the southern panhandle

Sunny benign weather from this weekend will continue through the
long range forecast across southeast Alaska. An upper level
pattern will feature a broad cutoff low over the NE Pacific and a
ridge will build northward over the panhandle, with a subsequent
surface ridge over the gulf. Thermal troughing over land areas in
the daytime will lead to some enhanced sea breezes in the usual
places such as Skagway, as well as westerly wind inflow in Cross
Sound, likely reaching up to fresh breeze (17 to 21 knots) in mid
to late afternoon.

Clear skies and warmer 850 mb temperatures aloft between 12 and
15 degrees Celsius will lead to surface temperatures continuing to
reach the mid 70s and near 80, with warmest temperatures seen
further inland and in the southern panhandle. A heat advisory for
the southern panhandle has been extended through Monday afternoon
for Hyder. Temperatures are expected to dip slightly and then peak
along the southern panhandle mid to late week as surface winds
shift out of the south through Dixon entrance.

There remains a low probability, up to 40 percent, for rain and
more cloud cover to return to the northern gulf coast Friday with
continued rain chances into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../through 18z Monday/ High pressure continues to keep
things calm across majority of the panhandle weather wise. Latest
satellite imagery shows clearing skies having once more taken hold
across the area as a marine layer has retreated back offshore, and
associated fog has largely dissipated. Widespread VFR conditions
across most of the area, with the one potential exception
currently being Hoonah. Sunday night will see a return of the
marine layer and fog potential with a low stratus deck and fog for
outer coastal communities and locations in the vicinity of the Icy
Strait Corridor alongside many of the marine channels.
Visibilities and CIGS will drop down to IFR/LIFR for the
aforementioned locations until ~18z Monday morning, when daytime
heating brings these areas back to VFR conditions.


Winds should remain around 12kts or less through the afternoon,
but can`t rule out an isolated gust up to 20kts this afternoon
under any sea breeze interactions. Winds return near calm and
variable overnight Sunday into Monday. No LLWS concerns through
the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...

INSIDE WATERS...Winds are expected to remain generally light for
the Inner channels as most winds will be sea breeze driven for
today and headed into the start of the week. Some areas could see
winds getting up to 15 kt with the temperature gradient. The
strongest winds are expected to be out of Clarence Strait headed
into Dixon Entrance as well as the Point Couverden area.

OUTSIDE WATERS...High pressure over the Gulf and panhandle will
allow for NW winds to continue with the strongest winds remaining
over the southern outer coast and into the Dixon Entrance area.
Winds are expected to get up to 15-20 kt for these areas while
there is the potential for 25 kt in the Dixon entrance region.
Farther north, winds are expected to remain less than 10-15 kt for
the rest of the outer coast regions. in tonight will be the development of fog over
portions of Icy Strait, Stephens Passage, Southern Lynn Canal, and
along the Outer Coast (Sitka, Yakutat) from 3 AM through 11 AM
tomorrow. /JG

OUTSIDE WATERS...NW winds will gradually increase Sunday into
Tuesday over the eastern GulfAK as the low over the central GulfAK
weakens and retrogrades to the SW and high pressure builds in.  We
can expect some fog along the Outer Coast Sunday morning before. the
winds start to pick up out of the NW.  The gradual increase in winds
to near 15 kt out of the NW can be expected over the eastern GulfAK
later Sunday through Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this
     evening for AKZ319.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ328-330-332.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ331.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...SF

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