209
FXAK67 PAJK 060535
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
935 PM AKDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.UPDATE...Updated aviation section for 6z taf issuance.

&&

SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday Night/...A weak trough tracks across
the Dixon Entrance area into tonight, keeping winds on the breezier
side for the southern Panhandle & increase chances for showers,
which will become more numerous as a front catches up & merges with
it. The aforementioned frontal system is stronger &  more organized
than we`ve seen, as of late, which will begin to march through the
eastern Gulf starting this evening & progress through the Panhandle
for Sunday, increasing rain chances and bringing breezier conditions
to the Southeast Alaska region. Another low will approach the
Panhandle, riding up along the aforementioned front, bringing the
southern Panhandle more action with enhanced winds and
precipitation, late Sunday night into Monday morning. Notably, there
is a slight chance for thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf waters
and along the central and northern Outer Coast Sunday afternoon as
temperatures up at 850mb of as low as just below 0 deg C & CAPE
values of up to around 150 J/kg advect toward and over those areas
behind the front. Temperatures remain relatively seasonable for
the region over the weekend.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/ Key messages:
- Temperatures remain seasonable heading into next week.
- Front bringing widespread rain to the panhandle to start next
  week.
- Heavy rain still on track for far southern panhandle Monday into
  Tuesday, shorter duration.
- More heavy rain potential late in the week.

Details: Model spread has decreased regarding the track of the
surface low on Monday which is responsible for directing a plume
of moisture at the southern panhandle. This has lead to a less
impactful solution becoming more likely with heavy rain lasting
for a shorter period of time over Monday night into Tuesday, and
overall lower 24 hr precipitation totals. Winds are still expected
to increase in the southeastern gulf to fresh to strong breeze.
Cooler 850 mb temperatures aloft will cause increased instability
over the northeast gulf behind the front from Sunday, allowing for
some thunderstorm potential from Yakutat Bay southeast to the
Fairweather Grounds Monday afternoon. The rest of the panhandle
will see light to moderate rain showers last through Tuesday.

Through the middle of the week, weather will remain unsettled across
the panhandle with onshore flow continuing to bring diminishing
showers to the area through Wednesday with a break Wednesday night
into Thursday as winds in the gulf shift out of the east with a
strong low approaching the central gulf.

Attention is now shifting to a heavy rain event later in the week
with a plume of moisture with a longer fetch and flow orientation
more perpendicular to the outer coast, in contrast to the early
week system. A gale force low is also expected to accompany this
heavy rain with a near gale force front approaching the panhandle
on Thursday. Stay tuned for further updates as we head into next
week.

AVIATION...A general downward trend in CIGS and VSBYS are
expected over the next 18 hours as an occluded front works in from
the west. Currently, VFR conditions are the main conditions but
some MVFR is starting to work into the southern panhandle this
evening as ceilings go as low as 1400 ft at Ketchikan and
Hydaburg. The more synoptically forced precipitation along and
east of the front will start moving into the outer coastal and
southern areas after 08Z tonight, and will spread gradually
eastward through the morning into the afternoon hours. We expect
mostly MVFR CIGS and VSBYS with this activity that will last into
Sunday evening mainly for the north. Periods of IFR can also be
expected during the heavier rainfall. Some breezy conditions
expected as this system moves through as well.

MARINE...Inside Waters: Winds are largely out of the south at
around 10 kt this afternoon. The exception to this is the Clarence
Strait area that is seeing a tightening pressure gradient as a
trough slowly approaches and crosses over Dixon Entrance area into
the night. Therefore, winds will increase out of the southeast up to
20 kt for the afternoon & evening hours as a result. The increasing
trend will spread northward late tonight with 15 to 20 kt winds for
most places on Sunday as a stronger more organized front moves
through.

Outside Waters: The aforementioned trough moving over the extreme
southeastern Gulf & through the Dixon Entrance has caused southeast
to east winds to increase up to 20 kt this afternoon with some
higher gusts. For tonight, a low center will track northward across
the western Gulf with a front passing over the eastern Gulf through
the day on Sunday. Increased winds with this front up to around 20
to 25 kt and a barrier jet along the northeastern Gulf coast of
around 25 to 30 kt late tonight through Sunday afternoon are
expected. We are not expecting a huge increase in seas with the
Sunday frontal system with them building up to around 6 to 8 ft
with the barrier jet/small craft areas.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ644-651-652-664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99

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