351
FXAK67 PAJK 092342
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
242 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ Active day across the
panhandle as a strong system moves through the area. The primary
front already passed through the panhandle earlier this morning
taking it`s winds and bands of heavier rainfall with it. Total
rainfall so far has been around 0.5 to 1.5 inches with some
isolated areas reporting up to 2 inches. Winds have also gusted to
50 mph in some parts of the outer coast and southern panhandle
this morning. As of noon the central and southern panhandle are in
the system`s dry slot according to satellite imagery, while the
northern panhandle is starting to see the rain and winds from the
second wrap as it starts to move inland.

The short range forecast features the north dealing with the
winds and rain from the second wrap moving through this evening.
Expect possibly up to another inch of rainfall through late
Thursday night from this feature while some parts of the northern
panhandle may see gusts to 30 to 35 mph this evening. Otherwise
winds will be on a gradual downward trend tonight and the steady
rain will give way to more convective on and off shower activity
panhandle wide as strong onshore flow persists into Friday. Some
pockets of cold air still linger near Skagway, Chilkat Valley, and
Hyder this evening that are bringing periods of snow to those
locations. Accumulations are not expected to be very heavy with
the exception of the higher elevations of the Klondike highway
where a winter storm warning persists this evening.

There will be a brief break in the rainfall Friday night as
overall flow turns more S and SE. This is ahead of the next front
that will be advancing across the gulf late Friday night. This
front is not expected to be as strong as the last two systems
have been this week with winds maxing out at low to mid gale force
in some parts of the northern gulf and rainfall expected to be
less intense.



.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/...Active weather pattern
for SE AK continues. After a brief lull another front arrives early
Saturday. For this system, a low moves northeast along the Aleutian
Islands, into the northern gulf. Yakutat and the northern panhandle
will have the heaviest and highest precipitation amounts. Winds in
the gulf reach gale force changing to strong breezes as the low
weakens. The far northern areas see strong winds with a tightening
pressure gradient. Model agreement on position of the low starting
to fall more in line keeping the center further west. The system
will move quickly dissipating Saturday afternoon. Yet another,
potentially stronger, system reaches the panhandle Sunday. Gale
force winds are expected throughout the gulf and along the coast
with possible storm force winds for marine areas. Precipitation this
time will be less localized with widespread moderate rain with times
heavy rain. Indications of IVT values reaching 500+. showing plenty
of moisture heading toward the panhandle increasing QPF amounts.
Temperatures s remain unseasonable warm at the start of the mid
range with cooler 850 mb temps entering behind the Sunday front, at
least for a short period, as well as some decreased chances of
precip. But ensembles just return SE AK back to SW flow at mid
levels likely putting us back into the overall warm and wet
pattern

&&

.AVIATION...Flying conditions across the panhandle today continue to
be less than ideal for flying with conditions varying from VFR
down to areas of IFR as CIGs and VIS continue to ride an elevator
up and down. With the low moving closer to shore, LLWS continues
to be an issue but should finally start to decrease as the center
moves inland this evening. Pireps throughout the day have
reflected the potential for either turbulence, icing, or LLWS.
Latest AAWU forecast graphics continue to highlight most of the
panhandle for turbulence, icing and LLWS potential for this
evening. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat towards the
latter half of the TAF period, but onshore flow will limit how
well conditions improve during the day on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...Generally rough conditions across the gulf and inner
channels today with widespread gale force winds in the gulf and
southern inner channels this afternoon and 20 to 30 kt winds for
the central and northern inner channels. These winds are expected
to gradually decrease tonight into Friday across the inner
channels. The exception is Lynn Canal where southerly winds will
be increasing to 25 to 30 kt this evening as the southerly push
from the current system finally reaches that area before gradually
diminishing Friday into Friday night. Gulf winds likely will stay
somewhat elevated around 25 to 35 kt due to various troughs and
the next front that will be traveling E through the period. Seas,
though starting rather high are expected to gradually diminish
through Friday night as SW and S winds diminish.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...Rainfall from the current system has generated some
rises in area rivers and streams but so far few if any have
reached bankfull stage today. Rainfall has generally ranged
around 0.5 to 2 inches with the highest totals occurring in the
higher elevations of the northern panhandle. Freezing levels have
also ranged from around 3000 to 4500 ft today promoting low
elevation snow melt. The warmer weather is expected to continue
while rainfall amounts are expected to gradually diminish, so
some river rises may still occur, but generally most rivers will
be steady over the next 24 hours or so.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641>644-651-661>664-671.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-053-652-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...EAL
HYDROLOGY...EAL

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