412
FXAK67 PAJK 141813
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1013 AM AKDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.UPDATE...Update to include 18z TAF issuance...

&&

.SHORT TERM...Our active week continues as a series of systems move
into the gulf, driving multiple rounds of gale force winds and
moderate rainfall. Simply put, winds will impact your day Tuesday.

As of 4am Tuesday morning the current SITREP along our coast is
the lull before the storm; anticipate gales, to strong gales,
building through the morning with the highest coastal wind speeds
along Cape Fairweather toward Yakutat. The inner channels will
feel gale force winds as well, see Marine Section for further
details regarding the coast and inner channels.

For land dwelling folks, this system has prompted a High Wind
Warning for Skagway with frequent gusts to 60 mph Tuesday
afternoon, but many communities in the central and northern
Panhandle will see strong winds as well (gusts to 40mph). These
winds will spread from west to east through the day Tuesday.
Touching on rain, periods of heavy rain associated with a decaying
atmospheric river will be present with the strong winds,
certainly a wet and windy Tuesday. Wednesday morning winds will be
at a lull once again, before a much more extensive low envelops
the Gulf. Model trends have really ramped up in the last 24 hours,
with ensembles showing high confidence in storm force winds for
our coast.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/...

Key Points:
 - Gale force front Wednesday into Thursday
 - Moderate to heavy rain Thursday with the potential for strong
   winds to continue for the inner channels into Friday
 - Another system reaches the southern panhandle Saturday

Details: An active weather pattern continues to impact the
panhandle, bringing consistent rain with periods of gusty winds
through the week. A gale force system supported by an upper level
low moving northeast along the Aleutians will send a strong gale
force front towards the northeastern gulf Wednesday afternoon,
bringing 35 to 45 kt sustained winds off the coast from Cape
Fairweather to Kayak Island. Many of the models are leaning
towards high end strong gales to storm force winds off the coast
of Cape Suckling, but the EC is still leaning towards maximum gale
force winds going into Wednesday evening. As the front moves
onshore overnight, gulf winds will decrease, but inner channel
winds will generally stay elevated as the pressure gradient turns
more N/S oriented. Northern Lynn Canal is expected to see strong
breezes to near gales, with the potential to reach gale force
sustained southerly winds. Pressure guidance is looking very
similar to the system from Tuesday, so it will be helpful to
compare to those peak wind speeds. This tight pressure gradient
will continue near gales to gale force winds for the outer gulf
waters on the back end of the front, which will also influence
strong westerly wave heights reaching between 20 to 26 ft on
Thursday. This system is also expected to bring moderate to heavy
rain rates to the Northern Panhandle and along the outer coast,
picking up Wednesday night and staying elevated through Thursday.
Within the first 12 hours, around 1 to 1.5 inches of rain are
expected for most coastal communities as well as Juneau. Yakutat
will feel the brunt of this system as it jumps onshore, expecting
between 1.5 and 2 inches within the first 12 hours and calming
down from there. Rain will continue Thursday, bringing another 1
to 2 inches to a majority of the panhandle, and reaching up to 3
inches in higher elevated areas.

The panhandle won`t see much of a break in between systems, as
another fast moving surface low jumps onshore in the southern
panhandle overnight into Saturday. Less than an inch of rain is
actually expected on Friday, with the majority around an inch
impacting the S Panhandle Saturday. Winds won`t be as strong with
this system, currently peaking at high end near gales early
Saturday morning and weakening quickly as the low dips inland and
directions start to turn offshore. Northerly outflow winds will
try to strengthen through Saturday, though they won`t last long as
another front moves into the gulf overnight Sunday into Monday.
Temperatures will be cooling through the week, with highs in the
mid to high 40s up north and low to mid 50s down south.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions are varied across the panhandle Tuesday
morning and will continue to drop until Wednesday morning.
Coastal communities are seeing IFR to LIFR conditions as the front
pushes inward along the coast with CIGs AoB 1000ft and light to
moderate rain bringing VIS down to 2 SM or less. The southern
panhandle has begun to drop to MVFR CIGs AoB 3000ft, and interior
regions are seeing even lower conditions preceding the front. The
northern panhandle is varying between VFR and MVFR conditions,
but is expected to soon drop to MVFR to IFR CIGs for the rest of
Tuesday. Winds with this system are already starting to pick up
for the northern panhandle and outer coast, with gusts already
increasing to 30 to 40 kts out of the S to SW. LLWS (combination
of speed and directional with many areas seeing S to SW winds
aloft while surface winds stay more SE) will increase to 40 to 45
kts with the peak of this system, especially up north. A few
lightning strikes have been observed within the vicinity of the
Yakutat airport within the past hour, but the area of convection
is expected to pass in the next 2 hours. Conditions will start
improving by late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning,
except for the Lynn Canal and Skagway area where gusty winds will
likely persist a little longer into Wednesday. Fog development
through Wednesday morning for the southern panhandle is becoming
more and more likely, with areas of dense fog down to 1/4 SM
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf/Coastal Waters):
A very active week continues for the gulf and coast, expect
southeasterly gales to build along Cape Fairweather Tuesday
morning, with gusts reaching strong-gales. As of 4am Tuesday
morning coastal buoys are reporting SW seas 8-11ft near 9-10
seconds out of the southwest. As gales build, fresh seas out of
the south will dominate the wave spectrum, with significant
heights building to 14-18ft from Cape Edgecumbe towards Yakutat.
Wednesday, winds and seas decrease but a more extensive and
powerful system will quickly advance across the Gulf of Alaska,
with southeasterly storm force winds forecasted for Cape
Fairweather towards Cape St. Elias; peak winds late Wednesday
afternoon into early Thursday morning.

A hurricane force low currently moving along the Aleutian storm
track will shift into the Gulf Friday as it weakens, but an
excellent dynamic fetch will be responsible for powerful westerly
swell. Current analysis indicates the potential for westerly swell
of 18-25ft focused at a period of 15 to 18 seconds Thursday into
Friday very impressive.

Inside (Inner channels):
The simple message is this, multiple rounds of gale force
southerly winds will impact the inside over the next few days.
First round will be through Tuesday, with peak winds in the
afternoon, persisting into the evening. Winds decrease Wednesday
but dont let this trick you. Another powerful low will move into
the coast Wednesday, with winds increasing back to near-gale force
to gale force for many inner channels Wednesday night into
Thursday. Elevated southerly winds persist into the end of the
week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ317-319.
     Strong Wind until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ318.
     High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT
     Wednesday for AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-021-022-053-644-651-652-663-664-671-
     672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-031>033-641>643-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...AP

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