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FXAK67 PAJK 091737 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
937 AM AKDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.UPDATE...Confidence has increased for snow accumulations for the
southern panhandle in Ketchikan, Annette Island, and Prince of
Wales Island. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for these
areas due to snow showers that will bring 2 to 5 inches of snow.
Trailing snow showers may lead to higher than expected snow
accumulations.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT... 532 AM

SYNOPSIS...High pressure is dominate from the Russian arctic to
the Canadian arctic and extends into the Northern port of the
state, while a 960 mb low in the western Bering extends a front
across the bering to a triple point low SW of Kodiak Island then
south to the Pacific. An old lingering surface low in the eastern
gulf will be dissipating or absorbed by the advancing weather
front.

SHORT TERM...Showers for the panhandle tapering off Sunday with
best chance of showers extending from Cross Sound to Gustavus to
Admiralty Island Kake to near Coffman Cove over toward Craig more
scattered showers for rest of the panhandle today. The old parent
low that was supporting flow pattern for the showers dissipates
Sunday afternoon. A new front spreads east across the gulf and this
front trails back over the Bering Sea as its connected to the low
in the western Bering. The next front is not all that powerful
with wind of 25 to 30 kt along the boundary over the central gulf.
Late Monday night as the front gets closer to Prince of Wales
Island, the terrain with aid in boosting the speed as the
land constricts low and winds accelerate, so a narrow band of
gales force develops.

LONG TERM...A low approaches the northeast gulf Sunday into Monday
bringing a front that will quickly pass over the panhandle
increasing winds and bringing precipitation. Wind speeds will start
to increase during this time period as the pressure gradient
increases along the coast. At this time, strong breezes are expected
with the potential for gale force wind gusts. These stronger wind
speeds will mainly be located in the gulf and the southern inner
channels since the gradient is positioned east to west. As the low
tracks southeast along the coast, on Tuesday, the gradient will
become more northerly to southerly. That will create stronger winds
in Lynn Canal and north to south facing channels.

With little to no break between the systems, light precipitation
will keep the panhandle in a wet pattern into the middle of next
week. Showery conditions are expected allowing for trailing
precipitation. Accumulation totals will be minimal with the southern
panhandle receiving the most precipitation. The main focus of this
system will be what precipitation type will be observed. Slightly
below normal temperatures will be observed across the panhandle
starting Monday. Maximum temperature are expected above freezing
with minimum temperatures right around freezing. Wetbulb
temperatures also fall to around or below freezing increasing the
chance of frozen precipitation. This makes the precipitation type
snow or a snow/rain mix for most of the panhandle late Monday into
Tuesday. Any Snow that falls will be wet in character with low snow
ratios. No significant snow accumulations are expected at this time.

This low pressure system will break down Tuesday into Wednesday
allowing for a slight break in the weather before the next system
arrives next weekend.

AVIATION...VFR prevails; however, stalled low along the coast
will continue to steer MVFR -RASN showers across the region.
Shallow convection is the name of the game, with IFR VSBY and
graupel/ice- pellets associated with stronger cells. Some blustery
southeast winds out and about, especially along the coast. Cross
Sound will see northeast offshore flow of about 20 knots. Early
Sunday morning Haines is bouncing between MVFR and IFR/LIFR from
CIGS and showers. Conditions will improve into MVFR for a few
hours this afternoon before dropping back down to IFR Sunday
evening.

Late Sunday night another system moves across the region bringing
heavy precip, MVFR, and LLWS for the coast into Monday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ328-
     330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-642-661>663.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-643-644-651-652-664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...AP

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