602
FXAK67 PAJK 141805
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1005 AM AKDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.UPDATE...18z TAF Aviation Discussion Update

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Key Points:
- Dry conditions continue with partly cloudy skies due to a ridge
  over the gulf.
- High temperatures in the mid to high 60s expected this week.
- Winds remain light in many areas with the exception of afternoon
  sea breezes.

Details: The ridge building over the Gulf of Alaska will allow for
dry conditions across the panhandle today into the rest of the week.
Clearing skies, with light winds, have also allowed for fog
development over the southern panhandle tonight. Some areas near
Frederick Sound are seeing visibilities decrease to a quarter
statute mile at times. This fog will dissipate as temperatures begin
to rise this morning. Along with fog, a marine layer still expected
to form this morning, but is not as widespread as originally
anticipated. Satellite is starting to indicate areas with a marine
layer west of Baranof Island. Areas along the outer coast can see
low cloud decks as a result of this marine layer.

With the ridge building over the panhandle, partly cloudy to clear
skies will allow for temperatures to increase to mid to high 60s.
Some areas will even see temperatures into the low 70s. Increasing
day time temperatures will allow for sea breezes to form increasing
winds for some land areas. Skagway will experience the largest
affect from sea breezes with winds increasing to 15 to 20 kts in the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday/...

Key messages:
- Building ridge blocking panhandle from main storm flow
  flattening to more zonal flow by Friday across the Gulf.

Details:
Ridge that builds up over the central gulf by Wednesday looks to
hang one while possibly letting a trough to run over the top of
the ridge late Wed and early Thursday. Models have slightly
differing strength on this, but have gone with a weak trough over
the northeast panhandle, and then models suggesting a fairly flat
zonal flow developing Friday to weekend.

Precipitation Wednesday primarily for the Northeast Gulf Coast,
and then just slight change ( 20 PoP or less into the panhandle )
Thursday to the weekend. Flow pattern may direct shortwaves to
the panhandle for the weekend, but Timing may be an issue that wee
need to watch. No significant feature is expected to the weekend
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Marine layer clouds and some lingering fog still
remain an issue through the late morning in some parts of the
panhandle. Fog and low clouds that developed in the central inner
channels overnight with visibility down to a 1/4 mile at times
are still hanging on around southern Stephens Passage and
Frederick Sound as of 10 am. More mid level clouds (ceilings down
to 1500 ft) are still hanging around Prince of Wales Island,
Southern Clarence, and Misty Fjords as well. A marine layer that
set up along the gulf coast stretching form Yakutat to Ketchikan
has started to thin out, with Sitka breaking out for the day as
of this discussion. Low clouds and fog are again expected for late
tonight mainly over the south (radiational fog and low clouds)
and along the outer coast (marine layer clouds advecting inland
again). Expect IFR or lower near these features which will likely
dissipate again Tuesday morning. Winds are light currently, but
sea breezes could generate higher winds up to 20 kt in the
afternoons (particularly Skagway).

&&

.MARINE...
Outside waters: Winds throughout the day today remain between 10
to 15 kts as the ridge builds over the gulf. As the ridge
tightens, wind speeds near the gulf coast will increase to NW
moderate to strong breezes of 20 to 25 kts Monday night. These
increased winds are expected into Wednesday before the ridge
begins to slightly weaken. Wave heights increase to 5 to 8 ft,
with the largest seas near Dixon Entrance. With clearing skies and
warming temperatures, a marine layer is expected to develop along
the coast. As of early Monday morning, satellite has started to
indicate marine layer development west of Baranof Island.

Inside Waters: Mainly light to gentle breezes of 5 to 10 kts persist
across the inner channels. An exception to these lighter winds will
be areas that normally experience sea breezes. Specifically, Cross
Sound, Icy Strait, and Lynn Canal will see increases in winds Monday
afternoon. N Lynn Canal will see the strongest winds with increases
up to 20 kts possible in the afternoon from Eldred Rock to Taiya
Inlet. Winds in southern Clarence Strait will also increase tomorrow
evening as the pressure gradient begins to tighten over the
panhandle.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-661.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...EAB

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