229
FXAK67 PAJK 041815
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1015 AM AKDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.UPDATE...To add the 18Z TAF update discussion...

&&

.SHORT TERM...Into this morning the panhandle is still seeing some
cloud cover over the northern and central panhandle, though some
clearing is developing over the outer coastline and southern
panhandle, as seen on satellite imagery. Still seeing enough
moisture at the lower levels to support fog development around Icy
Strait Corridor and parts of the southern panhandle like
Hydaburg, which has seen dense fog of less than 1/4 mile. However,
the fog is expected to lift by mid to late morning, and conditions
should remain clearer with some breaks in the clouds for most of
the panhandle. The northern panhandle, particularly around
Skagway, will see some lasting cloud cover into the day,
alongside potential for some easterly showers to move in from
Canada late around midday through the evening. The rest of the
panhandle today should remain drier, with only some potential for
sprinkles if anything. By tonight, the low in the southern Gulf
will continue to push southeast, with an occluded front expected
to bring some light rain up to the southern panhandle by tonight.

The ridging over the panhandle today continues not only to dry out
the majority of the panhandle, but will keep the winds calmer and
more variable. However, the larger breaks in the cloud cover
today will allow for warmer temperatures across much of the
central and southern panhandle, which may allow for sea breezes in
the afternoon and evening of up to 15 kt to develop. Moving into
tonight, the calmer winds and continued low level moisture will
allow for again some fog development. This is expected to mainly
impact the Icy Strait Corridor and the central panhandle later
tonight, in much of the same locations that have been experiencing
patchy fog to area fog the last few nights.

.LONG TERM...Key messages:
- A drier trend is expected this weekend with times of light showers
  still expected.
- Temperatures slightly increase into the weekend.
- Weak trough to skirt the far southern panhandle Saturday
- The next low pressure system enters the gulf at the start of next
  week.
- Unseasonable heavy rain for far southern panhandle Monday into
  Tuesday.

Details: Precipitation chances diminish into the weekend as an area
of weak surface high pressure remains over the eastern Gulf of
Alaska. Even with diminishing precipitation chances, that does not
mean that the panhandle will remain completely dry. Isolated
showers remain possible across the panhandle in the afternoon
hours. However, minimum QPF is expected with no impacts. Along
with light showers, an upper level trough will continue to bring
increased cloud cover with broken to overcast skies. Temperatures
at the end of the week begin to return to near typical values for
this time of year with maximum temperatures in the mid to high
60s. Low temperatures will remain in the low to mid 50s to end out
the week.

Toward the end of the weekend, a low will slide into the northwest
gulf and a trough extending from it will bring a shift to more
southerly flow over the panhandle and increasing precipitation
rates. The heaviest precipitation currently looks to be more
focused on the northern panhandle than the central and southern
areas for Sunday. Another system will move into the southern gulf
early next week bringing widespread moderate to heavy rain. Some
model discrepancies still exist with the placement of this
feature, however models continue to trend towards winds increasing
along the eastern gulf to fresh to strong breezes by Tuesday.
Ensemble trends have begun to show a signal for heavy rain with
this early week system impacting the far southern panhandle from a .
The EFI has trended towards increasing SoT near 2 for QPF for the
far southern panhandle, with more than 80% members, for the 24 hr
period from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. The track
of the plume of moisture responsible for producing this heavy
rain will be the primary forecast challenge heading into the next
work week. With continued model spread for this low pressure
system just under a week away, we will continue to monitor it`s
development.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 18Z Saturday/...Relatively weak ridging is
setting up across SE Alaska, causing subsidence, which results in
much lower chances for rain and low ceilings. We still will have
to contend with some areas of lower ceilings and visibilities
tonight where we will see some reformation of scattered areas of
low stratus clouds and fog with conditions dipping down as low as
the MVFR/IFR categories. The main area for for this tonight looks
to be around the northern Panhandle region. Elsewhere, expect
mostly VFR during the day & night. There is some potential for
some scattered rain showers, tonight, with conditions dipping as
low as the MVFR flight category for some extreme southern
Panhandle locations late tonight. Benign SFC winds & LLWS values
are expected with some sea breezes around areas where the sun
breaks out, today.

&&

.MARINE...Inside Waters: Generally low winds of 10 kt or less for
most areas today. The only exception to that is northern Lynn
Canal, which will see S winds of 15 kt beginning this afternoon
and speeds of over 10 kt lasting into tonight. Southern Clarence
Strait near Dixon Entrance will also see some 15 kt winds from the
SE tonight into tomorrow as the low in the southern Gulf
approaches the southern coastline. Otherwise, the lower wind
conditions across the inner channels are expected to continue for
much of the weekend with some possible localized increases to 15
to 20 kt in the afternoons and evenings due to sea breeze
circulations. The next more intense storm is more toward Monday
night into Tuesday with 15 to 25 kt winds possible for mainly the
southern inner channels.

.Outside Waters: Highest winds of 15 to 20 kt continue to be
seen in the central Gulf and further offshore of the southern
coastline. Some of these 15 kt winds will begin to impact the
southern coastline late tonight into tomorrow morning as some
higher easterly winds funnel out of the Dixon Entrance area into
the Gulf as the low approaches Haida Gwaii. Continue to see seas
of 3 to 4 ft for the near shore waters and 6 to 8 ft in the
central gulf. There is also a small SW swell of 3 ft at 9 sec
observed as well. This pattern is not going to change all that
much through the early weekend. It is into Sunday and early next
week that we start to see some changes. First the trough over the
central and southern gulf will drift north on Sunday to bring some
15 to 20 kt SE winds and seas to 5 ft to the northern near shore
waters. That is followed by a stronger system on Monday night into
Tuesday that will bring 20 to 30 kt winds and seas up to 8 ft for
the SE gulf. Most of those seas will be wind wave as the
southerly swell will still only be around 2 to 3 ft through the
period.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...Contino

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