108
FXAK67 PAJK 150641
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1041 PM AKDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.UPDATE...Update due 06z issuance, conditions overall continuing
to as expected, with the ridge over much of the panhandle. There
is some onshore flow for the Northeast gulf coast and into the
Glacier Bay area that is occasionally developing some convection
that has had isolate lightning strikes. Ceilings down to 1500 feet
for some locations with most over 3000 feet. Winds in the Skagway
area has gusty winds that will be diminishing overnight, with the
strong wind so expect LLWS there.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 358 PM Tue Oct 14...

SHORT TERM...The gale force low that continues to impact the
area is starting to make its jump inland this afternoon. When this
low jumps inland, winds are still expected to pick up this
afternoon before diminishing during the evening and overnight
hours. With the decreasing winds high dew points at the surface,
fog is expected to develop from the central down to the southern
panhandle this evening. Farther north, fog is not expected to
develop due to the winds persisting longer this evening before
diminishing. We expect a break from the rain during the overnight
and into the morning hours but this will be short as the next
front moves across the Gulf and into the Panhandle. This will
bring a return to rain across the area tomorrow afternoon and
evening. The strongest winds with the front will be along the
outer coast and over the water. Behind the front, onshore flow is
expected to persist through the end of the short term forecast.

LONG TERM...Not much change to the forecast for Thursday, with
Thursday mainly functioning as the post frontal environment for
the storm force low impacting the area on Wednesday night.
Expecting to see southerly winds kick up to 25-30 knots in the
inner channels associated with the frontal passage, with winds
along the outer coast transitioning to SW near gales behind the
front. It is possible to see some isolated pockets of short term
gale force winds in the inner channels, but expecting to have this
front shear apart as it moves inland.

The big portion of the midrange forecast that raises the most
questions is late Friday into the weekend. Both the EPS and GEFS
have large discrepancies between the ensemble means, with run to
run consistency favoring individual camps. Needless to say, a
relatively tough forecast. The GEFS has the most spread between
its individual members, but is in general agreement for a strong
low moving NE to near the southern panhandle. With it, it is
possible for gale force winds with even some indications of storm
force winds for Clarence Strait and western coast of Prince of
Wales Island. The Euro ensemble shows a significantly weaker
system, pushed back much later to this weekend. Leaned toward the
GEFS for todays forecast as this matched with the deterministic
euro and gfs, but confidence for this system is not strong at the
moment.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions are varied across the panhandle Tuesday
and will continue to fluctuate between categories until Wednesday
morning. Coastal communities are seeing VFR to IFR conditions in
the wake of the front as showers push inland. CIGs AoB 5000ft are
the underlying conditions, though showers will bring these CIGs
down to AoB 2500ft with periods of moderate to heavy rain bringing
VIS down to 2 SM or less as they pass over. The southern
panhandle has stayed around MVFR CIGs with visible breaks in the
distance, while the northern interior panhandle has largely stayed
in the low end VFR range. Most of the panhandle CIGs will stay
around 3000ft for the remainder of Tuesday, with rain trickling
out through the evening from south to north. Petersburg is the
only exception, with CIGs hovering around 300ft and VIS between 1
and 3 SM for most of the day, continuing through the evening.
Winds with this system have largely reached their peak within the
last hour for the northern panhandle and outer coast, with gusts
around 20 to 30 kts and slowly decreasing. Winds in Skagway picked
up a bit later than the rest of the panhandle, but they are now
seeing sustained 40 kt winds with gusts towards the 60s. Winds
will continue to decrease through the evening. LLWS has also begun
to decrease for a majority of the panhandle, with 30-40 kts
becoming 20-30 within the next 2 hours and continuing to drop from
there. A few lightning strikes were observed within the vicinity
of the Yakutat airport earlier today, though potential for more
convection is quickly decreasing through the afternoon. Conditions
will start improving into early Wednesday morning, except for the
Lynn Canal and Skagway area where gusty winds will likely persist
a little longer into Wednesday. Fog development through Wednesday
morning for the southern panhandle is becoming more and more
likely, with areas of dense fog down to 1/4 SM expected through
the early morning hours from around 8Z at the earliest to around
18Z at the latest. Another front moves into the northern panhandle
at the very end of the period, bringing rain and lowered
conditions with gusty winds into Wednesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): The active weather continues for
the Gulf and outer coast. The front from earlier today has moved
through the area bringing showers and some clearing in its wake as
well as fresh to strong breezes. Seas are expected to remain
elevated with 10-15 ft seas diminishing to 7-10 ft overnight. Winds
will continue to diminish as well headed into early tomorrow morning
before the next front moves up from the south and west during the
mid morning. This front is expected to bring gales to most of the
outer coast with the exception of places from Cape Fairweather to
Cape Suckling which is expected to see storm force winds along the
front. Seas are expected to build up to 10-15 ft with potentially 17-
22 ft waves with the strongest winds. Headed into the latter half of
the week, onshore flow is expected to continue with fresh to strong
breezes with SW swell continuing.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds across the Inner Channels this
afternoon vary greatly depending on location. Farther south, winds
remain around a gentle breeze while to the north, gales and near
gales persist for Lynn Canal. Winds for Lynn Canal are expected to
persist through the evening before diminishing during the overnight
hours. Elsewhere, the light winds are expected to bring about fog
development this evening as high pressure temporarily takes hold
ahead of the next front. This fog is expected to develop from Point
Cravens and Tracy/Endicott arm southward. Visibilities are expected
to be less than 1 NM with patches of fog potentially down to 1/4 NM.
The fog is expected to dissipate tomorrow morning and afternoon as
winds start to increase ahead of the next front that starts to move
closer to the panhandle bringing an increase in winds to the area.
Headed into the latter half of the week, winds are expected to
remain elevated with fresh to strong breezes while Lynn Canal could
see near gales to gales headed into Friday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ318.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ644-651-652-671-672.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-021-022-642-643-662>664.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-031-053-641-661.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99

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