883
FXAK67 PAJK 022312
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
312 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SHORT TERM.../ through Wednesday night / Vertically stacked low
drifting southward from SW of Kodiak Island towards the northern
central Pacific. Generally are of higher pressure over the eastern
and northern Gulf of Alaska persisting and holding in place. Weak
flow pattern aloft will not lead to any systems coming in and
breaking the pattern so the marine deck will continue. A slight
reposition of the high pressure ridge will begin some clearing for
the southern panhandle as the more pronounced NW winds which is a
drying and clearing trend for the southern panhandle.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/...
Overview: Semi static mid level flow pattern now should remain
through the weekend keeping overall quiet weather. Increasing
probability of rain next week.

At 500 mb: Closed low over the Western AK Gulf will have dropping SE
into the N Pacific with weak ridging over the Panhandle. The low is
expected to shift back N into next week with uncertainty on how far
to the east it might shift. At the surface the gulf low also drops
to the south while high pressure expands over the gulf. The surface
ridge keeps onshore flow for northern half of the panhandle keeping
chances of light precip and mostly cloudy skies in place. Ensembles
show high probability of mostly cloudy skies. Operational models
have more of a spread as NAM showing wide spread low cloud deck
while GFS has skies lifting and more breaks developing by Thursday.
Moderated temps where clouds remain but the southern areas warming
into the low 70s due to solar heating. Warmer 850 mb air mass moves
in by next week. Inner channel winds will be generally 10 kt or less
initially except for the northern  channels where the pressure
gradient between the panhandle ridge and Yukon low will have
increased southerly winds. Eastern gulf winds pick up on lee side of
the ridge with tip jets near coastal ocean entrances possible into
the weekend. Next gulf front/low has been delayed into late
Monday/Tuesday due to the blocking pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...Weak forcing combined with a moist profile has lead to
MVFR and IFR conditions to begin the TAF issuance. Most notably,
low CIGs over the NE gulf coast from onshore low will continue
into Wednesday. Areas along the far inner channels from Juneau
down to Petersburg will also see MVFR with occasional IFR CIG and
VIS conditions through the night with persistent onshore flow. As
wind speeds begin to decrease aloft Wednesday morning, conditions
will begin to improve.

For the southern panhandle, lighter winds aloft with moist
conditions will allow for the development of some patchy fog
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...No significant systems in the area, and a weak wave
moving through on Tuesday will be replaced with a ridge of high
pressure on Wednesday. Clouds are restricting sea breeze impacts
however lesser versions are continuing. Anticipate wind speeds of
20 to 25 kt for parts of the northern Lynn Canal.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The Chilkat River is now firmly on the downward
trend due to relatively cooler temperatures for the last few days.
Some uncertainties lie in the amount of QPE the basin has received
from this last period of rainfall. However, while the river may
crest again this evening, it is not expected to rise above minor
flood stage. Looking beyond, temperatures look to possibly raise
once again to 70 degrees and above for around the Chilkat River.
While flooding is not expected at this time, additional rises from
snowmelt is likely.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-644.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...NC
HYDROLOGY...N

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