796
FXAK67 PAJK 131215
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
415 AM AKDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SHORT TERM...
A broad Rossby wave draped across the Aleutian Arc into the
Bering continues to be the catalyst of weather over the week, with
embedded shortwaves moving along the Aleutian storm track into
the Gulf serving as the dynamics for several gale force lows to
develop. The first one is currently moving along the northern
coast, with coastal buoys and ASCAT satellite derived winds
indicating easterly gale force winds along Cape St. Elias and the
Fairweather grounds, with fresh seas of 10-12ft at 7-9 seconds;
highest winds north and west of Cross Sound. Anticipate winds to
strengthen through the day Monday across the Inner Channels as the
pressure gradient tightens up, more info in the Marine section of
the AFD, with light to moderate rain impacting areas north of
Sumner Strait. Tuesday a secondary gale force low reinforces this
feature, quickly moving ashore into Canada. Watching the potential
for isallobaric flow to bring a brief period of near-gale to gale
force winds to the Inner Channels Tuesday evening. A more
extensive gale force system moves into the Gulf Wednesday. More
info in the long term.


.LONG TERM...Active weather pattern continues throughout
the week as systems continue to impact the panhandle, the 500 mb
ridge beginning to be pushed eastward as shortwaves push in from the
west throughout the week. Following the rain impacting the NE Gulf
Coast Monday will be a weak low moving up from the south, bringing
another round of brief moderate to heavy rainfall to the NE Gulf
Tuesday. The low will move onshore around Yakutat by Tuesday night,
bringing light to moderate rainfall across the rest of the panhandle
throughout the day before it moves onshore and dissipates. There is
a brief break in the precipitation as this low moves onshore before
the next system moves in, particularly in the southern panhandle as
chances diminish into Wednesday morning. For this system on Tuesday,
the northeast Gulf coast is expected to see between 1 and 2 inches
of rain in 24 hours, and the northern panhandle will see below 1
inch in 24 hours. Much lower amounts are expected to the southeast
of Sitka as the precipitation largely moves northward and inland.

The next system moving into the Gulf Wednesday morning will bring a
gale force front across the northeastern Gulf, bringing 35 to 40 kt
winds along the northern coast from Cape Fairweather to Kayak
Island. The GFS and Canadian ensembles are leaning towards higher
wind speeds associated with this system, however the EC ensemble is
favoring keeping it only having probabilities for gale force winds
along Fairweather and near Kayak Island, so the wind speeds have
been increased but are at most a high end gale at this time. These
winds in the Gulf will diminish Wednesday night into Thursday
morning as the low lingers offshore to the northwest near Kenai
Peninsula. As the front moves in from east to west, it will begin to
impact the NE Gulf Coast area in the morning before moving across
the rest of the panhandle throughout the day. The system will
continue to bring precipitation throughout the day Thursday before
the low diminishes into Friday. The front moving through Wednesday
will bring 2 to 3 inches of rain in 24 hours to the NE Gulf coast
and Yakutat area between midday Wednesday through midday Thursday,
with the heaviest rates expected Wednesday night with 0.6 to 0.8
inches in 6 hours possible. NBM probabilities show around a 40%
chance of above 0.75 inches in 6 hours for this time frame, and a 30
to 40% chance of seeing above 3 inches in 24 hours. For the rest of
the panhandle, between 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected between
Wednesday night and Thursday night, with potential higher amounts at
higher elevations. The timing of the front is much more in agreement
between models today, it is a matter of the strength and amount of
precipitation that is still quite spread.

Looking a little farther out, there is a chance of again a weak
outflow event at the end of next week Saturday. With a low pressure
system moving to the south of the panhandle, and building high
pressure to around 1020 mb, weak northerly winds can develop.
Similar to this weekend, outflow winds do not look strong at this
moment.


&&

.AVIATION...Despite the increased cloud cover over the the
panhandle from the front in the gulf, most areas are still VFR
this morning. The exception is Yakutat where the onset of more
precipitation has lowered ceilings down to 800 ft and vis down to
3 miles as of 4 am. The rainfall over the NE Gulf Coast is
expected to spread eastward today, mainly affecting the northern
half of the panhandle by afternoon. Ceilings and vis will likely
drop to MVFR conditions through the morning and afternoon hours as
this precip moves in and ceilings will likely stay lower into
tonight even though vis will likely improve as precip diminishes.
For areas south of Sumner Strait, VFR conditions will dominate
over the next 24 hours, as the more significant precipitation is
not expected to get that far south. Freezing levels will be rising
to 6000 to 7000 ft through the morning.

As for winds, the highest surface winds are 15 to 20 kt
southerlies in Lynn Canal and Skagway. Those winds are not
expected to abate all that much through tonight and may increase
slightly today as the gulf front moves inland. Elsewhere, lighter
winds to 15 kt are the rule this morning with some slight
increases expected across the north today as the front moves
inland. Winds aloft are not expected to be much higher than at the
surface today so low level wind shear and turbulence should be
minor at most.


&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf/Coastal waters):
Certainly, an active weak for the Gulf of Alaska, with several
gale force lows driving elevated wind/seas Wednesday into Friday
looks to be the strongest conditions.

Current SITREP Monday morning along our coast is easterly gale
force winds from Cape St. Elias to the Fairweather grounds, with
82 and 83 reporting SE seas of 10-12ft at 7-8 seconds with
underlying southwest swell. These winds will remain prominent
through Monday morning, decreasing to fresh breezes by Monday
evening. As winds decrease, fresh seas from the southeast become
southwest swell of 9-11 ft near 10-12 seconds. Tuesday a quick
moving gale force low will push into the coast, with winds
increasing back to gale force. A dynamic fetch associated with
this system will increase waves back to 13-15ft from the
southwest, highest seas focused from Cross Sound to Yakutat.

A more concerning system develops Wednesday, with widespread
southeasterly gales developing along the majority of our coast
into Thursday and fresh short period seas increasing to near
17-20ft. Behind this system is an excellent dynamic fetch of
southwest winds, bringing 20-30ft seas into the central Gulf of
Alaska. One item of note is the potential for significant swell to
develop along the coast, meaning waves of 17-20ft focused at
14-18 seconds from the southwest.

Inside (Inner Channels):
Simply put, several gale force lows will make landfall over the
week, bringing multiple rounds of southeasterly near-gale to gale
force winds. Monday, anticipate the majority of inner channels
north of Sumner to be feeling southerly fresh to strong breezes,
with easterly winds being pulled out of Icy Strait. Tuesday
morning winds subside briefly before fast moving low jumps ashore
in the evening, bringing near-gale to gale force winds to major
north-south channels. Strong breezes to near-gales are forecasted
for Chatham, Stephens, and Lynn, with gale force winds likely for
northern Lynn Canal. This should only be a threat late Tuesday
afternoon into the evening before winds begin to decrease
Wednesday morning.



&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-652-664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-642-643-662-663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...AP

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