045
FXAK67 PAJK 100549
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
849 PM AKST Tue Dec 9 2025

.UPDATE...Update to the Aviation Section to include the 06z set of
TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 344 PM AKST Tue Dec 9 2025...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - Snow continues for the central panhandle as an ample moisture
   band moves overhead and below freezing temperatures persist.

 - Cold temperatures continue, with many areas seeing single
   digits or sub zero temperatures. Wind chills along White Pass.

 - Partly cloud and breezy conditions through the week, with
   potential for more snow in the southern panhandle late next
   weekend.


SHORT TERM.../ through Wednesday night / Arctic boundary stalled
over south central panhandle. and moisture streaming into the
area so a band of snow forming on front from northern Prince of
Wales Island over towards Wrangell and Petersburg. It extends as
far north as Kake as well. Snow should continue through the
evening and then taper off. Another impulse will spread across
the southern panhandle Wednesday and it looks like the snow will
finally reach the Dixon Entrance area. Only minor snowfall
accumulations anticipated this time, but I`ve been surprised the
last few day.

Northern panhandle the cold weather ( wind chill ) for cold
advisories and gusty winds as well from the outflow. So nothing
surprising for the northern panhandle. Temperatures in the to
near zero or colder for the northern zones, and similar conditions
for Thursday morning as well it looks like.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/...Only minor changes were
made to the long term forecast, mainly adjusting outflow wind
speeds and pushing the potential snow for next weekend back a day.

By Thursday morning, the low moving south of the panhandle will
have moved inland into BC and dissipated, with strong outflow
winds keeping any developing showers offshore until Saturday
morning. This means that the panhandle will remain dry through the
rest of the week, with low PoPs and partly cloudy skies
dominating the forecast. A small surface ridge developing on
Friday is expected to make that day the most clear and the least
windy. Precipitation is expected to return to the forecast
Saturday morning as a low jumps into the southern gulf and sends a
front northward into the panhandle. Uncertainty still remains in
how far this front will make it through the panhandle, as
persisting outflow winds will attempt to force the front to stay
more southern. With colder temperatures remaining through the long
term forecast, precipitation will most likely fall as snow.
Active weather looks to remain into early next week.

The main concerns for the long term remain the temperatures and
winds. The arctic boundary continues to extend southward through
the week, keeping below freezing temperatures through the extended
forecast. Daytime highs will struggle to reach into the 20s for
many locations in the northern and central panhandle, and into the
30s for the southern panhandle. Overnight lows during the week
will mostly stay in the single digits up north and in the 10s down
south, slightly increasing through the weekend as the next system
moves in, though still staying below freezing. An extreme cold
warning for Skagway, primarily along the Klondike Highway, is
still active through noon Wednesday for extremely cold
temperatures as low as 45 degrees below. Cold weather advisories
for the Haines Borough and Gustavus have been issued through 9 AM
Wednesday for wind chills as low as 15 degrees below, primarily
once the sun sets. Strong outflow also persists through the week,
with 20 to 35 kt winds and pockets of gales blowing through the
inner channels and funneling out into the coastal waters of the
gulf. The strongest winds will remain in the northern panhandle,
particularly down Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage and out of Cross
Sound, with gaps along the gulf coast serving as outlets for
strong winds to funnel through. There will be a brief decrease in
wind speeds on Friday, though Lynn Canal will still stay above 20
kts before outflow ramps up even stronger than before going into
the weekend. Strong gales are expected to spread through a
majority of the inner channels, with strongest winds remaining in
those hot spots in the northern panhandle. Freezing spray will
remain an issue in the inner channels and along the NE gulf coast
with these elevated winds, which could become heavy at times.

AVIATION.../Through Wednesday evening/...Flying conditions across
the panhandle this evening continue to be split between the
northern and southern panhandle. Across the northern half, VFR
conditions continue although cloud cover continues to work its way
northward from the central and southern panhandle. The lowest
level of this cloud deck appears to be around flight level 010
according to observations from Juneau down to Kake. Farther south,
snow is dropping CIGs below flight level 010 and also dropping
visibilities down to IFR to LIFR with the heavier pockets of snow.
The caveat to this is closer to Ketchikan where warmer
temperatures has allowed the precipitation to remain as rain but
there is the potential for changing over to snow near Klawock.
These conditions are expected to continue through the overnight
hours as the snow persists before starting to subside during the
early morning hours. One concern this evening is how far north
does the snow move under this band of clouds working their way
northwards this evening. LLWS and turbulence is expected to
remain an issue at Juneau through the TAF period as outflow
continues and cross barrier flow continues at ridgetop with
conditions persisting.

MARINE...
Outside: Strong outflow winds continue to dominate the
eastern gulf coastal waters through Wednesday. Gale to storm
force winds with strong storm force gusts are blowing out of
interior passes, as well as any available drainage channel. Only a
minor reduction in strength is expected through Thursday, but
winds are overall expected to stay elevated through the week. Wave
heights are around 7 to 10 ft through the majority of the gulf,
with areas affected by the outflow winds seeing up to 15 ft waves
persist through the week. Freezing spray is possible with strong
wind gusts, mostly along the coastal waters. The central gulf is
more calm, only experiencing disorganized moderate breezes as the
low in the western gulf dissipates.

Inside: Strong gale outflow winds have persisted through Tuesday and
are expected to continue through the week. A very strong pressure
gradient in the northern panhandle is forcing northerly winds with
gusts in the 60 kt range down through Lynn Canal and Stephens
Passage, as well as strong gale force winds with storm force gusts
out of Taku Inlet and through the rest of the inner channels. Wave
heights between 8 to 15 ft are expected in areas of the strongest
winds, with the rest of the channels seeing around 6 ft or less and
diminishing overnight. Channel entrances and areas with greater
localized forcing (like Point Couverden) may see up to 15 ft waves
at their peak. The pressure gradient is expected to only slightly
relax overnight, continuing gale force outflow winds in Lynn Canal
and Stephens passage and strong breezes to near gale force winds for
the rest of the channels through the week.  Cold temperatures with
the strong gusty winds are leading freezing spray or Heavy freezing
spray levels that would result in coating ships/boats in ice.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Extreme Cold Warning until noon AKST Wednesday for AKZ318.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ319.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ320.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ326>329.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ331.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011>013-031-053.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ021-032.
     Storm Warning for PKZ013.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011-012-022-031-033-642>644-651-662>664.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-032-034>036-053-641-652-661-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...Bezenek

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