969
FXAK67 PAJK 100008
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
308 PM AKST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SHORT TERM...Largest change to the ongoing forecast is a stronger
push of moisture northward from the severe gale force front. What
this will translate into is the possibility of extremely wet snow
for Juneau, Gustavus, and Hoonah on Sunday. Whether it will
accumulate will be dictated by the amount of dry air working its
way down to the surface, pushing wetbulb down below freezing.
Going forward, it will be an area to watch in the next 12 hours
for how surface temperatures will react to any potential drying
and reduction of cloud cover tonight. Ultimately went more
pessemistic in snow forecasting for the Icy Strait area including
Juneau, but not expecting widespread accumulating snow.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through next week/... Quick Notes:
-Dry weather returns for Monday.
-Weak system possible Tuesday or Wednesday.
-Strong System Potentially for late in the week into the weekend

The long range forecast starts off with drier weather spreading
across the panhandle as a front departs the area, moving off to
the S as its parent low heads into BC.

While some chances of rain may linger for the southern panhandle,
expect the northern panhandle to largely dry out. A weak system
associated with a mid-level trough may move in from the NW on
Wednesday potentially bringing snow to parts of the area, though
at this point do not expect any significant accumulations. Not
too far behind it, a stronger system racing E across the Gulf
could sideswipe the southern half of the panhandle Wednesday into
Thursday.

Confidence is growing in the potential for a strong frontal band
to move into the panhandle from the W late Friday or Saturday, in
conjunction with a deepening trough.

Winds will broadly remain out of the N as the synoptic level
pattern favors weak N outflow. Think that this will bring cooler
temperatures, esp. on Monday, but not expecting anything too
spectacular given the lack of a strong high pressure over the
Yukon and a low in the S Gulf to drive a truly substantial
pressure gradient.

The main changes to the forecast were to add detail to
anticipated cooler temperatures from N outflow winds.

&&

.AVIATION...Gale force front moving to the outer coast and through
the southern Panhandle tonight will result in some low level wind
shear for Sitka, Klawock and Ketchikan overnight. Low level wind
shear should become more prevalent for the central and northern
Panhandle airports during the day on Sunday as the front works its
way northward.  As far as visibilities and ceilings go, with
diminishing rain coverages going into tonight we expect generally
VFR going, but as we get into Sunday periods of MVFR can be
expected with passing showers.


&&

.MARINE...A high end gale force front on satellite is currently
marching its way northward. Satellite observations show that gales
along the leading edge of the front is slowly shifting eastward,
as expected. Pressure gradients for southerly flow across the
panhandle are expected to relax with wind speeds slowing. As the
front pushes further north, northerly winds will slowly begin to
strengthen in the northern panhandle.

Main changes to the message is an extended period of easterly
winds in the central and southern panhandle, maximizing around
strong breezes to near gales. The front is expected to stall
around Icy Strait late Sunday night, with easterly winds being
replaced by northerly outflow shortly after.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     AKZ318-325.
     Strong Wind from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     AKZ323.
     Strong Wind from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     AKZ328-330.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-032>035.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...JG
MARINE...NC

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