


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
356 FXAK67 PAJK 022252 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 252 PM AKDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SHORT TERM...Dry weather and clear skies remain the big story through Thursday, though a change in the pattern is in store beginning Friday. Aloft, a strong upper level ridge continues to remain over the Gulf of AK, bringing strong mid and upper level northwest flow across the panhandle. Closer to the surface, this has resulted in widespread dry weather, with only some occasional mid or upper level clouds rotating around the ridge and into the panhandle. A weak marine layer formed off the coast Tuesday night, but largely remained offshore. Wednesday night will remain largely similar, with clear skies, barring a few locations with mid to upper level cloud cover. While a marine layer may form once again, anticipate that it will stay offshore. Thursday will likewise remain similar to Wednesday, with high temperatures in the 50s for many locations near sea level. Thursday night will see some upper level cloud cover begin to spread across the panhandle, but expect dry weather to prevail across the area until Friday. Winds will remain on the lighter side, with sustained winds occasionally reaching gentle to moderate breeze over land-based areas. The pattern will begin to change on Friday as the ridge begins moving off to the E, opening up a path for storm systems rotating around the flank of an advancing trough to race up from the SE into the area. For more information, see the long term forecast discussion. .LONG TERM...The deep low forming in the gulf is currently moving northeast with models dropping as low as 970mb as the front reaches the outer coast. A weak atmospheric river will provide plenty of moisture to help fuel this system and bring an end to the nice weather we`ve been experiencing. This front will be accompanied by strong gales and sea heights possibly exceeding 18 ft off the coast in the eastern gulf. This system is expected to bring elevated winds to the inner channels, with the potential for gales near channel entrances. Temperatures will continue to rise through this system before slowly falling through the next week. Precipitation associated with this system will impact the panhandle through Saturday peaking overnight into Sunday and lingering through the beginning of the week. The northern and central coastal regions will experience the onset first, as well as the highest accumulated amounts as the front moves eastward. Yakutat is expected to receive the most precipitation with 1-3 inches through the weekend. The majority of impacts will occur Saturday afternoon, and the active pattern is expected to continue through the rest of the week. && .AVIATION.../Until 00Z Friday/...CIG & VIS conditions will remain within the VFR flight category, & generally benign SFC winds are in store for Southeast Alaska through the TAF period. The only appreciable variation will be between sea and land breezes. LLWS values will remain benign through the period. && .MARINE...With the weak pressure gradient, Inner Channel winds should remain largely around light breeze, perhaps occasionally reaching moderate breeze through Thursday night. Marine winds and waves are expected to remain on the quiet side until the end of the week when a gale force front is expected to move into the Gulf by Friday. Seas are expected to increase along the outer coast with this front with peaks near 20ft along the outer coast Friday night before winds decrease again. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM....ZTK AVIATION...JLC MARINE...GFS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau