763
FXAK67 PAJK 060802 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1102 PM AKST Fri Dec 5 2025

.Evening and 06z Aviation Update...
The forecast remains on track with minor changes made to the timing
of the Winter Storm Warning over the Haines Highway as moderate to
heavy snow has already began to fall. Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches
have already fallen along the highways with snow beginning to
accumulate at sea level. As of early this evening snow began at sea
level in both the Haines and Skagway Boroughs. Visibilities have
greatly decreased due to this heavy snow with areas below 1 SM. We
are continuing to watch Yakutat as ENE winds have begun allowing for
temperatures to drop. The precipitation type over Yakutat is
expected to transition to snow late tonight/very early Saturday
morning, with these falling temperatures. In Yakutat, with
temperatures around freezing, snow will continue to be wet with
low snow ratios through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION.../through Saturday evening/
Better flying conditions than expected across the panhandle this
evening, predominately MVFR to VFR with CIGS AoB 5000ft with
isolated LIFR flight condition visbys due to ongoing snowfall or
freezing fog at Haines and Skagway. Overall low to medium aviation
forecast confidence through tonight as low tracks in the NE Gulf
Coast. Model guidance continues to cold start, progging persistent
IFR to LIFR flight conditions not matching current conditions.
Forecast through tonight will be pessimistic, expecting the VFR
conditions becoming predominate MVFR through Friday night and into
Saturday mid morning as the aforementioned low weakens and moves
inland near Cape Fairweather. IFR to LIFR flight conditions will
continue through the TAF period for Haines and Skagway with heavy
snowfall expected to continue through Saturday. Transiting south,
visbys will decrease starting 00z Saturday to around 3 to 5SM with
a gradual transition from rain to rain snow mix and eventually
snow along the Icy Strait corridor TAF sites like Gustavus and
Juneau into late Saturday evening. Precipitation type transition
for Yakutat will be tricky, heavily relying on a more ENE wind to
produce snow. Currently seeing that and expecting to continue, but
would like to see a more predominant NE direction. Still thinking
a transition to rain snow mix will occur sometime after into
early Saturday with snowfall expected by Saturday afternoon. For
Sitka eastward to Petersburg and southward, expecting
precipitation to remain all rain through Saturday.

Winds across the N panhandle will elevate through Saturday
morning and remain elevated through the day due to aforementioned
passing low and increasing pressure gradient with sustained winds
around 15 to 25kts with gusts up to 25 to 35kts. Strongest winds
will remain near TAF sites like Haines and Skagway, continuing
through the TAF period. Winds across the S panhandle expected to
be lighter through Saturday morning, around 10kts, increasing into
Saturday evening to match the northern panhandle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 353 PM AKST Fri Dec 5 2025...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - Low pressure system in the Gulf brings a front eastward across
   the panhandle Friday evening through Saturday, bringing
   moderate to heavy snow to the northern panhandle and moderate
   to heavy rain for the southern panhandle.

 - This weekend through next week, models continue falling into
   line behind a weather pattern that has been known to produce
   heavy snow. Higher confidence in totals for the northern
   panhandle, but still some uncertainty remains about timing and
   amounts as cold air pushes southward.

SHORT TERM...The main changes made to the short term forecast
today were to narrow down precipitation timing and amounts for
the incoming system.

A low pressure system has advanced into the north central gulf,
sending a front into the northern panhandle before spreading
southeast through Friday night. This front is expected to bring
moderate to heavy rain rates with increasing wind speeds
overnight. Looking at half an inch to an inch of rain for the
northern panhandle Friday night, largely spreading to the rest of
the panhandle through Saturday morning and bringing around another
inch to an inch and a half Saturday. The system is reinforced
through Saturday and continues to stall in the gulf into the
extended period, continuing to funnel consistent moisture and
strong winds into the panhandle. An area of deep upper level
troughing is beginning to shift over the panhandle, bringing
colder temperatures and increasing outflow winds through the
weekend and into next week. These cold temperatures steadily move
southward through this period, and in combination with the
abundance of available moisture, precipitation will begin to
transition into snow.

Communities in the far northern panhandle are starting to see
this transition tonight, with Skagway already reporting light snow
beginning to fall. A winter storm warning was issued for heavy
snow accumulation in Skagway and Haines through Sunday, with the
greatest accumulations and heaviest rates expected to fall on the
higher elevations of the Klondike and Haines Highways. Consistent
moderate to heavy snowfall is looking to bring accumulations of
between 18 and 28 inches to Skagway and 15 to 22 inches to the
Haines Borough, with the higher amounts expected at higher
elevations of the highways. For Skagway at sea level and along the
highway, and from Haines down along the Chilkat Peninsula, wind
gusts up to 45 mph are possible Sunday which may result in some
blowing snow following the fresh snowfall. Yakutat is also
expected to dip below freezing temperatures overnight and begin
accumulating advisory level snowfall of around 3 to 5 inches
through Saturday. Confidence has increased that the Icy Strait
Corridor, including the cities of Gustavus, Hoonah, Tenakee
Springs, Elfin Cove, Pelican, and Juneau, may see significant
snowfall accumulations starting Sunday. A watch has been issued
for potentially heavy snow from Sunday morning into Monday night,
with accumulations between 11 to 16 inches possible. Cold
temperatures continue to drop southward into the central panhandle
as another system advances from the south, sending another front
with similar rain rates into the southern panhandle. The pattern
continues to persist through the long term, increasing confidence
of a long duration snow and rain event. See the long term for more
information on how this pattern will continue into next week.

LONG TERM.../ Sunday to Tuesday /
The arctic boundary continues to move southward with the
northerly outflow trying to set up. Expect snow to develop Sunday
from Pelican-Elfin Cove east towards Juneau ( the Icy Strait
Corridor) and continue through much of Monday to Tuesday.
Significant snowfall may fall Sunday to Monday evening, so a watch
has been issued.

Cold air will continue to push south Tuesday, and spread the snow
into the southern panhandle by Tuesday.

Gusty north winds from the outflow, with gusty winds to 40 to 45
mph perhaps so possibly blowing snow, if snow characteristics are
right, or freezing spray down Lynn Canal.

MARINE...
Outside Waters: Lighter conditions will continue across the gulf
from a ridge moving through Friday. This will quickly be displaced
by an oncoming system from the west Friday night into Saturday.
Winds will shift south southwesterly and increase to fresh to
strong breeze (17 to 27 kt) by early Saturday. These stronger
winds will last through Saturday and As the pressure gradient
tightens between the low in the Gulf and the high to the north
over Canada Saturday night into Sunday, northeasterly near gale to
gale force (30 to 40 kt) offshore winds and gap winds will occur
along the NE Gulf Coast between Yakutat Bay and Cape Spencer. The
southeastern Gulf will also see an increase from near gales to
gales (28 to 36 kt) as a front moves through Saturday night into
Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday. Seas between 5
and 8 ft will quickly increase tonight into Saturday as the system
moves in to between 10 and 14 ft. The seas will continue to see
an increase into Sunday to 12 to 16 ft. Southwesterly swell
continues tonight through the weekend.

Inside Waters: Lingering fog and low stratus continues to plague
parts of the inner channels Friday afternoon, particularly along
Icy Strait as well as Frederick Sound in the vicinity of
Petersburg. Calmer surface conditions that allowed for this fog
development will give way to a sharp increase Friday night into
Saturday as the next system moves into the area. This will bring
southeasterly winds across the inner channels between a moderate
to fresh breeze (11 to 21 kt) into Saturday, and up to a strong
breeze (22 to 27 kt) for northern Lynn, Frederick Sound, Stephens
Passage, and near the ocean entrances. The channels will see a
brief increase as the fronts move across the panhandle this
weekend into early next week. Northerly outflow begins to set up
over northern Lynn Sunday as the pressure gradient begins to
tighten, bringing near gales in the morning becoming gales into
the day Sunday. Largely expecting between 35 and 43 kt winds down
Lynn Canal lasting from Sunday into early next week, with the
stronger northerlies moving southward down to Point Couverden
Sunday night into Monday. This will allow some lower level
convergence right around Point Couverden from the southeasterly
winds up Chatham Strait and the northerly outflow coming down out
of Lynn Canal, bringing winds around Rocky Island to around 25 to
30 kt. Frederick Sound near Point Fanshaw and up along Stephens
Passage will continue to see strong breezes to near gales
throughout the weekend, alongside Clarence Strait seeing near
gales as the fronts move through and bring stronger southeasterly
winds.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM AKST Saturday for
     AKZ317.
     Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM AKST Sunday for AKZ318-319.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon
     for AKZ320>322-325.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-034-053-641>644-651-
     661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EAB
SHORT TERM...ZTK/Contino
LONG TERM...Bezenek
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...STJ

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