732
FXAK67 PAJK 112301
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
301 PM AKDT Sun May 11 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/ Clouds have cleared out of
most of the panhandle this afternoon with most areas reporting
clear to broken sky cover. Consequently, a few areas have
temperatures pushing 60+ with the increased sunshine. This is
because of general low level offshore flow that developed across
the panhandle this morning and surface ridging in the gulf of
Alaska. Winds have also been rather light with most areas
reporting 15 kt or less.

The clearer weather will not last, though it may stick around long
enough in the inner channels for fog development to become a
higher possibility for many areas late tonight and early Monday.
Otherwise, the ridging in the gulf is expected to flatten Monday
as a front moves into it from the West. The weak offshore flow is
expected to turn more onshore early Monday morning and may bring
in some cloud cover into the outer coast as early as Monday
morning. The front itself that is coming in from the W will start
bringing precip into the panhandle as early as Monday afternoon
for Yakutat and Monday evening for the northern panhandle. QPF
amounts are expected to be around a quarter to half an inch at the
highest total. The southern panhandle is not expected to see much
rain out of this system at all due to divergence and the front
weakening as it tries to move through the surface ridge.

Winds with this front are not that significant either with barely
20 kt expected pre-front. Post-front however has some 20 kt W
winds spreading across the gulf Monday night that will likely
bring some breezy conditions to the panhandle.


.LONG TERM...The active weather pattern returns to the panhandle
through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, though
breaks will be present between systems.

A cold front successfully pushing through the ridge which had
built over the area on Sunday/Monday will arrive through the
latter half of Monday, and linger through the first half of
Tuesday. Having seen its strength substantially weakened by its
passage across the northern flank of the ridge over the Gulf, what
is left of the front will have primarily focused in the northern
panhandle and along the outer coast. Rain looks unimpressive, with
minor accumulations of 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch over 24 hours,
mainly for west facing mountains and with the heaviest totals
clustered around the northern half of the area. The negatively
tilted shortwave trough associated with the the front will work
its way to the surface, leading to breezy conditions for the Icy
Strait Corridor northward.

In the wake of the front, the ridge will briefly rebuild, and
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning will be a transient
break between systems, though a few lingering showers are possible
still on Tuesday. A stronger front from a low in the central to
western gulf looks to move in from the SW Wednesday evening,
bringing widespread breezy and wet conditions. Unlike the previous
front, this looks to be a warm front, and will be complete with
more robust moisture support, although still nothing too
exceptional. The breeziest conditions look to be in the coastline
communities and the southern panhandle communities. Not
anticipating particularly breezy conditions in the far northern
inner channels, as the front looks to weaken as it arrives,
meaning the mountains look to block much of the energy from moving
inland. Onshore flow then continues through Saturday, keeping
chances of rain across the area to close out the week.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 00Z Tuesday/ VFR conditions prevail across the
TAFs with skies clearing up and winds becoming light. Regions in
the Northern panhandle are currently seeing southwesterly sea
breezes becoming mostly light and variable overnight before the
next front moves over. Flow should turn more onshore through
Monday morning which has potential to bring ceilings down for the
outer coast. The system is expected to hold back for the majority
of the panhandle through the period, which may allow for fog
development to occur for the central inner panhandle Monday
morning. Yakutat will see the first impacts towards the end of the
period with lower ceilings and potential for light rain. Winds
will pick up for a majority of airports as the front approaches.


&&

.MARINE...
Eastern Gulf of Alaska...Fairly quiet weather with mainly W to NW
winds of 15 kt or less and seas of 7 ft or less. Some increases in
winds to 25 kt and seas to 8 or 9 ft expected for the SE gulf off
Prince of Wales Island late tonight into Monday as pressure
gradient packing along the east side of the surface ridge
increases winds speeds there. Otherwise, a front moving through
from the west will mainly bring increased winds and seas from the
westerly winds behind the front Monday night. Expect winds to
increase to 20 to 25 kt and seas building to 8 ft by late Monday
night.

Inside waters...Quiet inside channels weather with winds mainly 15
kt or less out of the north and W. These winds are expected to
remain low for the most part though Lynn Canal will likely see a
switch to S winds and increasing speeds to 25 kt Monday and Cross
Sound and Western Icy Strait will see some increasing W winds to
20 to 25 kt during the same time period due to an approaching
front. These areas will likely stay with 20 to 25 kt winds through
Tuesday.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-641-642-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...EAL

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