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FXAK67 PAJK 062331
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
231 PM AKST Wed Nov 6 2024

.SHORT TERM.../through Thursday night/...
Quick Notes:
-Passing ridge will help clear skies but incoming front from the
south will bring precip right back.
-Ahead of the front will have northerly flow but as the front passes
through, winds will swing to the south as precip moves in.
-Thursday night, onshore flow will keep showery or on/off
leftover rain over SE AK.

Details:
A passing ridge will help clear out the skies tonight ahead of the
next round of precip. A big concern tonight is the outflow winds
that could cause some areas to see strong gusty winds. Downtown
Juneau could see wind gusts picking up speeds late this evening
and lasting into early Thursday morning. Low-end wind gusts are
expected to be around 20 mph with high-end wind gusts upwards of
40 to 45 mph. Inner channel winds will swing to the north tonight
before swinging to the south as the front approaches. More details
about marine areas in the Marine section below.

Late tonight into Thursday, the next frontal passage will move
north. As it approaches the southern areas, some gusty winds
upwards of 30 to 45 mph are possible in land areas. Southern marine
zones could see southerly sustained winds near 25 to 30 kt.

As the front tracks northward, precip will move northward as well.
While mostly rain is expected, at the onset of precip, some mixing
is possible in the Icy Strait area. Farther north, the same is
expected but higher elevations could stay as snow. The Haines
highway could see near 1 to 3 inches of snow but the Klondike
highway could see around 3 to 5 inches of snow. Because of this, a
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued that will go into effect
at Noon Thursday and last through the evening.

Thursday night, leftover on shore flow will keep the on/off rain
or showery weather in place through the night. Snow will be mainly
contained to the highways in the far northern panhandle.


.LONG TERM.../Friday Through middle of Next week/...The active
weather pattern looks set to continue through most of the weekend,
before an early season northerly outflow event brings cooler
temperatures and drier weather to SE AK beginning late Saturday
and lasting through much of Monday.

The long range forecast starts with still more rain for SE AK.
Already widespread precip generated by strong onshore flow will be
reinforced by a shortwave rotating into the panhandle on Friday.
Expect lower chances of precip Saturday as a system approach from
the SW weakens onshore flow, and on Sunday think that parts of the
N half of the panhandle may be largely dry as said system passes
to the S. Expect a frontal band with this system to reach into the
southern panhandle and potentially into the outer Gulf Coast,
alongside breezy conditions. As the low passes to the S, the
pressure gradient fully turns out of the N across the panhandle,
and between the low to the S and a weak high pressure over the
Yukon, anticipate small craft or near small craft winds across
most of the inner channels Sunday into early Monday. Anticipate
drying conditions across the N half of the panhandle late Sunday
into Monday, with drier weather likely spreading into the S
panhandle by Tuesday. Some cooling of temperatures is expected,
but given the lack of a reservoir of truly cold arctic air in the
Canadian Interior, am anticipating that the weather shouldn`t turn
too cold, with low temperatures largely staying in the 20s.
Operational guidance diverges substantially by Tuesday, though
another low could potentially pass to the S of the area through
the middle of next week. Anticipate that what precip does fall
should remain largely within seasonal parameters, with nothing too
extraordinary in the way of QPF.


&&

.AVIATION...Lingering rain showers and low clouds from a decaying
front will continue to clear out through the afternoon ahead of a
fast moving ridge. Good chance for some fog development in the
overnight hours into Thursday morning with clearer skies
particularly along the Icy Strait Corridor. For southern panhandle
a quick moving surface low will bring more enhanced rain and
cloud cover early Thursday morning along with some gusty winds at
the surface. As a result, some LLWS is expected once more for the
Clarence Strait area.

&&

.MARINE...Lynn Canal winds will decrease in speed this evening
before swinging to the north. After the direction switches to the
north, wind speeds will pick up to around 20-25 kt. Otherwise,
generally light winds are expected ahead of the next front.

As the front approaches from the south and tracks northward
through SE AK, wind marine wind speeds will be around 15 to 25
knots out of a general south direction. Wind speeds will remain
steady like that through Thursday night.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight AKST
     Thursday night for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Thursday morning for
     AKZ325-332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-031-033-035-036-053-641>644-
     651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...GJS

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