784
FXAK67 PAJK 142347
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
247 PM AKST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SHORT TERM...A warm front sliding into the gulf this evening
will increase southeasterly winds to severe-gale force, gusts to
storm force, along our northern coast. Strongest winds south of
Cape Suckling. Expect moderate to heavy precipitation thru Friday,
with snow persisting at elevation into Saturday. As winds
increase to 25-35 knots, gusts to 40+ knots, across most inner
channels early Friday (see marine section for further details)
rain and snow will spread across the Panhandle. For communities
along the coast and south of Icy Strait, 24-hour rainfall amounts
continue to fall under 3 inches. Previous forecasts have reflected
a much more favored view of snowfall for the Icy Strait corridor
and Juneau but warm surface dewpoints, warm lower boundary
profiles, and a much slower front this morning suggest a rain
event instead of snow, keeping most impacts confined to Haines and
Skagway areas. For communities along the Icy Strait corridor and
Juneau, expect to see a burst of heavy and wet snow sometime
Friday morning perhaps slushing things up but a quick transition
to rainfall as the heaviest precipitation rates associated with
the front move north.

For Haines and Skagway communities, reference the Winter Weather
Advisory and Winter Storm Warning for additional information.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through early next week/With the front
having pushed through on Friday, Saturday will remain breezy and
wet across the panhandle. Higher elevations along the Haines and
Klondike highways will likely transition to very wet snow or a mix
of rain and snow as the front lifts into the interior Saturday
morning. At sea level, temperatures will generally hover in the
low to mid 40s through the day with little change overnight due
to continuing precipitation and cloud cover. Continuing from
Friday, there is enough instability for isolated thunderstorms to
be possible along the outer coast through Saturday morning.

As the low continues to meander in the northern gulf and slowly
weaken, onshore flow will continue to produce showers Sunday and
into early next week. An amplifying ridge will build high pressure
into the Yukon which will lead to increasing outflow winds and
much colder temperatures by Tuesday along with some clearing over
the far northern panhandle. These increasing outflow winds will be
further amplified depending on the location and strength of a low
pressure system that will approach the southern gulf sometime
early next week. For the Icy Strait corridor northward, models
are trending towards maximum temperatures struggling to reach
above freezing for Tuesday and potentially Wednesday as well. With
increasing outflow winds bringing cold dry air from the interior,
any showers that are able to make it over the mountains and into
the inside waters will be producing light snow.

Overall big takeaways for next week are widespread colder
temperatures with outflow winds picking up and lingering showers
along the outer coast, potentially reaching into the inner
channels through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION... Mainly VFR conditions, with a few areas of MVFR,
continue until later tonight when a front approaches bringing
increased precipitation chances and wind to the panhandle. This
front will mainly bring rain to the panhandle, but north of icy
straight can expect to see snow to mixed precipitation later
tonight into tomorrow morning. As this front makes it`s way over
the panhandle flying conditions will become predominately MVFR
with times of IFR possible for some locations. This front also
creates widespread LLWS especially along coastal areas.

&&

.MARINE...
Gulf: Easterly winds increase through the night as the front
moves over, reaching mostly gale force for the coast. Exception
will be Cape Fairweather to Kayak Island where we will see
sustained winds reach severe-gale criteria. Just south of Cape
Suckling, expect gusts to reach storm force for a few hours. Seas
increase to 14 to 17 ft before WSW swell begins to impact the
gulf, significant heights along our near shore waters will remain
below 20ft.

Inner Channels: Key point, expect 20 to 30 knots of southerly wind
Friday, increasing to 35 to 40 knots for a few hours in the
afternoon as the front moves over the Panhandle. Winds diminish to
15 to 20 knots by Saturday morning.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Friday morning for AKZ317.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Friday for AKZ318.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon AKST Friday for AKZ319.
     Strong Wind Friday morning for AKZ320>323.
     Strong Wind Friday afternoon for AKZ325.
     Strong Wind Friday afternoon for AKZ326-327.
     Strong Wind Friday afternoon for AKZ328>330-332.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-031-036-641>644-651-664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-032>035-053-661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...EAB

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