984
FXAK67 PAJK 281332
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
Issued by National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SHORT TERM...A storm force low currently near 46N 158W will
continue to move north and east into the gulf over the next 24
hours. Satellite indicates full maturity of this extratropical
cyclone, reinforced with the 500mb temperature isotherms on the
downstream side of the main trough axis. Weakening will occur as
this feature moves into our area but winds will still be threat;
see marine section for further elaboration on impacts to vessels.
For land dwelling folks, breezy conditions are expected Friday,
especially along the coast. We are not seeing any signal for the
hurricane force gusts we saw Wednesday in the south.

Moving on to precipitation type and amounts, the stout low in the
gulf will carry with it plenty of warm air, with snow levels
remaining well above sea level for the majority of the region.
Scripps CW3E Atmospheric River Guidance continues to feature a
weak AR conditions, as defined by IVT duration and magnitude, with
major ensembles falling in-line with the WRF. For Friday into
Saturday, expecting 1 to 2 inches of total rain for the region;
White Pass expect an additional 6 to 12 inches of snow, with snow
cranking on by Friday morning, persisting into Saturday morning. 1
to 2 inch per hour rates at times.

Haines out the road, per norm, continues to be the main challenge
for snow, for now highlighting snow potential given precip rates
and adiabatic cooling dropping snow levels to surface. If this
occurs, expect 2 to 4 inches of snow prompting an Special Weather
Statement.

.LONG TERM...Weather front finishes moving through the SEAK
panhandle. The old parent low will track into the northeast gulf
by Saturday which will increase shower activity for the northern
panhandle as the flow pattern about the low has more of direct
flow into the panhandle. Showers for the southern panhandle
Saturday will be less as they are further from the old low in the
gulf.

Models suggesting that a ridge builds over the eastern gulf
northward to the Yukon territory which will mean the onshore flow
will be centered west of our areas and into the west-central gulf
coast. Dry weather is anticipated for the panhandle early Tuesday
with precipitation, spreading in to the southern panhandle
Wednesday to Wednesday night. Longer range forecast has a
indication of a stronger front moving into the eastern half of
the gulf and panhandle late Thursday and Friday.

.AVIATION...Lingering showers will continue to bring occasional
MVFR conditions primarily to coastal communities through Thursday
afternoon. Conditions to deteriorate late Thursday night with
LLWS, lowering CIGs and precipitation bringing down VIS in heavier
showers as a strong gale force front approaches the panhandle.
Widespread MVFR late Thursday night with drops to IFR possible in
heavier showers and along NE gulf coast.

&&

.MARINE...Gulf: The impressive low near 46N 158W continues to
inspire, with OPC charts indicating 40ft seas associated with a
large dynamic fetch. Storm force SW winds through early this
morning are allowing these seas to flourish, which will transition
to swell as the low weakens and supporting winds diminish. Severe
gale force, to gale force, east-southeast winds will increase
across our coastal zones Thursday night, driving fresh 20ft seas
from the southeast. Later Friday the aforementioned swell group
arrives; southwest 18 to 22 ft at 20 to 22 seconds by Friday
afternoon into Saturday. Caution is advised for any travel near
ocean entrances or along coastal zones for substantial breaking
waves, especially on ebb tide cycles. Southwest swell diminishes
through Sunday.

Inner Channels: Thursday was the relatively lull in between
storms, with Lynn Canal reaching gales. Expect winds to diminish
slightly in the north this evening for a few hours before ramping
back up again by early Friday morning. Overall, expect strong
breezes, with some areas like Peril Strait and Frederick reaching
near gales. Expect southeast winds by-and-large with easterly
winds in Icy Strait.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 9 AM this morning to noon AKST today for AKZ317.
     Winter Storm Warning until 2 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ318.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ322.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-053.
$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...AP

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau