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FXAK67 PAJK 041327
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
527 AM AKDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.SHORT TERM...Light showers continue across the panhandle
today as the weakening upper level low is absorbed into a larger
trough extending from over the Yukon and Interior Alaska. This
feature is expected to move eastward today into tomorrow as a ridge
begins to build over the Gulf. A surface low in the southern Gulf is
expected to move east near Haida Gwaii today, bringing another round
of precipitation across the southern panhandle this afternoon into
tonight. This is expected to bring light to occasional moderate
amounts of rainfall to POW, Ketchikan, and Annette Island with 24
hour QPF totals between 0.40 and 0.60 inches. For the rest of the
panhandle, PoPs are expected to decrease this afternoon into
tonight, with the central panhandle expecting some sprinkles as the
showers diminish. The northern panhandle will begin to see some
light showers moving in from a low to the north over northern
British Columbia and the Yukon Territory starting tonight. This is
expected to move across from near Skagway and Haines into the Icy
Strait corridor region throughout the night, with these increased
chances for showers lasting into tomorrow morning. Expecting these
continued chances for precipitation alongside lasting cloud cover
across the panhandle to keep temperatures around normal today.

.LONG TERM... / Tuesday to Saturday / The remains of the frontal
band moving through the panhandle Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday is
looking dry and that continues to into Thursday. The dry weather
is due to a ridge moving across the eastern gulf and to the
panhandle. Along with this ridge, 850 mb temperatures are going to
increase, in turn, increasing temperatures at the surface. Above
normal temperatures are expected mid to late week. The NBM is
showing maximum temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 for many
areas across the panhandle.

Next weekend, a strong low over the western gulf and eastern
Bering Sea, moves towards the western Gulf. A front from that low
swings across the North Pacific and then into Western gulf and
toward the panhandle. With that low, there are starting to be
indications of a plume of moisture that is increasing IVT values
across the southern gulf. These higher IVT values reaching > 250
to 500 kg/m*s shows the chance of AR development. The plumes
strength is a touch weaker than it was showing on Saturday, and
positioning shifted slightly but still is aimed towards the
southern half of the panhandle. If this occurs, we can see
moderate to heavy rain over parts of the panhandle. Currently this
increase in moisture looks to be focused on northern areas. We
will continue to monitor the strong low and the associated
potential for heavy precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...A mixed bag of conditions across the panhandle this
morning with mostly VFR cigs and vis. However, there are many
areas of MVFR with some isolated IFR, mostly due to ceilings
rather then visibility. Lowest conditions are currently at Angoon
with 300 ft ceilings. Aviation conditions are expected to remain
rather variable (mostly VFR with some MVFR at times) with showers
and mid level clouds lingering around most of the panhandle today.
Meanwhile, tonight features a system moving through the southern
panhandle as an easterly wave moves through the northern inner
channels bringing MVFR conditions and precipitation to both of
those areas. Winds are mostly on the light side at 15 kt or less.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: Winds continue to stay around 10 kt or
less as the low decays and a surface high begins to push into the
northern Gulf. Seas west of Haida Gwaii will pick up this morning as
a low approaches the southern Gulf. As the high in the northern Gulf
pushes east throughout the day into tonight, winds will begin to
pick up again west of Haida Gwaii in the tightened gradient between
these features with winds up to 15 kt. The gradient between the
ridging in the Gulf and the low over inland Alaska and Canada will
also bring up winds to around 15 kt along the northern Gulf coast
late tonight into tomorrow. Seas of 4 to 5 ft are expected today
into tonight, with seas of 6 to 7 ft west of Haida Gwaii as the low
moves in tonight into tomorrow. SW to W swell with wave period of 14
to 16 seconds expected.

Inside Waters: Most areas will remain light to up to 10 kt, however
northern Lynn Canal will see winds between 15 to 20 kt this
morning through this afternoon as the low in the Yukon and B.C.
keeps the pressure gradient tightened over the northern panhandle.
Stephens Passage near Grave Point and Midway island are expected
to see some occasional increases between 10 and 15 kt from the
ridging this morning over the central and southern panhandle. This
is only expected to last until this afternoon, when winds in the
central inner channels will begin to diminish to predominantly less
than 10 kt. Clarence Strait is expected to pick up as a front
approaches from the south to upwards of 15 kts. It is also
expected to see a brief wind shift near Dixon Entrance as the low
first approaches Haida Gwaii, becoming northeasterly coming out of
southern Clarence Strait later tonight, before shifting back to a
southeasterly direction.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...Contino

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