188
FXAK67 PAJK 072341
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
241 PM AKST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SHORT TERM.../through Saturday night/...

Key Messages:
-Weak low tracks through the eastern gulf tonight into Saturday
 morning.
-Light snow is most probable for those along the central and
 southern coast.
-Low chances that light snow won`t happen but could end up being
 freezing drizzle due to the dry conditions.
-Inner channel wind concerns are in Lynn Canal and out of Taku
 Inlet, where wind speeds could be around 15 to 20 knots. Lighter
 speeds elsewhere.


Details: Mostly persistence forecasting continues for the short term.

Later today, another short wave feature will give light snow and
more cloud cover to those along the coast from Cross Sound south to
Price of Wales Island and east to Metlakatla and Ketchikan. Any
snow that does occur will be light, with amounts mainly under 1
inch.

That being said, there is concern that the snow could end up being
freezing drizzle. Dry air aloft with the added moisture could give
freezing drizzle to the Sitka later this evening, with the precip
moving south through tonight into Saturday morning. While the
chances are low, it`s enough that it can`t be ruled out. This will
need to be watched closely as the event unfolds.

Wind speeds over land areas will be light, save for Haines and
Skagway, where tighter pressure gradients could give some gusty
winds and increase sustained wind speeds late tonight into
Saturday.

Temperatures remain cooler-than-normal but with light winds, no cold
weather advisories are expected at this time.


.LONG TERM.../SUnday through Thursday night/...If you have read
the long term section of the AFD for the past couple days, this
version will read like the movie Groundhog Day. Light winds (by
Winter Standards) occasionally rising to small craft intensity
over the inner channels closest to the Coast Mountains will be the
rule through the long term forecast period. Still no impactful
precipitation in the forecast with plenty of sunshine. Temps,
which started the month WELL below normal have slowly moderated
but continue to run below normal. This will no doubt continue for
the duration of the time that strong high pressure over western
Canada and northerly offshore/outflow winds persist.

&&

.AVIATION...Pattern shift coming up over the next 24 hours with
onshore flow and low clouds bringing the chances for a wintery
mix.

Have placed -FZDZ in some TAF sites given the lack of saturation
in the snow growth zone; with that said we could see some light
snow instead if we can get a bit deeper moisture. Amounts look
minimal either way, stuck with -FZDZ given the potential for more
impact on surfaces and cold air frames. Will need to watch surface
temperatures overnight Friday. Expect areas south of Frederick
Sound to see MVFR from CIGS, with the northern Panhandle north of
Frederick Sound remaining in VFR with SKC or scattered cloud deck
AoB 2500ft. Will see 15 to 25 knot northwest winds along the
coast which could drive some light chop but not expecting any
LLWS.

&&

Marine...For the inside waters, winds will slacken this evening
though northerly outflow winds will persist. Saturday night, the
weak low will move farther south, allowing a strong outflow to begin
again. So north/south oriented channels will see elevated wind
speeds again. At this time, speeds up to 20 to 25 knots by Sunday
morning.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....Fritsch
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...GJS


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