851
FXAK67 PAJK 140655 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1055 PM AKDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.UPDATE...Update due the 06z Taf Issuance. Most of the Panhandle
has sub VFR flight conditions Ceilings mainly between 1000 to 3000
feet. Lower ceilings for the Northeast Gulf Coast below 500 feet,
and rain and fog reducing visibilities under 2 miles. Conditions
will lower over the panhandle as the front moves through during
the day. As the low jumps inland, Very strong winds area expected
to develop in the Lynn Canal area so Wind shear has a strong
possibility for the Haines and Skagway airports Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 355 PM Mon Oct 13...

SHORT TERM...The remnants of the gale force front that has been
impacting the area this morning continue to bring some elevated
winds through the afternoon and evening. These winds will diminish
into the overnight hours before the next gale force low moves
into the Gulf tomorrow. Rain across the area has already starting
diminish for most locations with accumulations remaining fairly
light with the exception of the NE Gulf coast. With the next low
moving into the area, the heaviest precipitation is once again
expected for the NE Gulf coast region Tuesday morning through the
afternoon. Amounts during this time could reach up to 1-2" in 12
hours, especially for places from Fairweather north and west to
Icy Bay. As the low moves inland, a surge in winds is expected to
move up Lynn Canal tomorrow into tomorrow evening. This surge is
expected to bring strong winds to the Lynn Canal. Winds in the
Skagway area are likely to gust to 60mph during the afternoon and
evening, as such, went ahead and issued a high wind warning.
Headed into early Wednesday morning, precipitation and winds
starts to diminish for most locations across the panhandle before
the next system arrives in the long term period.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/...

Key Points:
 - Gale force front Wednesday into Thursday
 - Moderate to heavy rain Thursday with the potential for strong
   winds to continue for the inner channels into Friday
 - Another system reaches the southern panhandle Saturday

Details: An active weather pattern continues to impact the
panhandle, bringing consistent rain with periods of gusty winds
through the week. A gale force system supported by an upper level
low moving northeast along the Aleutians will send a strong gale
force front towards the northeastern gulf Wednesday afternoon,
bringing 35 to 45 kt sustained winds off the coast from Cape
Fairweather to Kayak Island. Many of the models are leaning
towards high end strong gales to storm force winds off the coast
of Cape Suckling, but the EC is still leaning towards maximum gale
force winds going into Wednesday evening. As the front moves
onshore overnight, gulf winds will decrease, but inner channel
winds will generally stay elevated as the pressure gradient turns
more N/S oriented. Northern Lynn Canal is expected to see strong
breezes to near gales, with the potential to reach gale force
sustained southerly winds. Pressure guidance is looking very
similar to the system from Tuesday, so it will be helpful to
compare to those peak wind speeds. This tight pressure gradient
will continue near gales to gale force winds for the outer gulf
waters on the back end of the front, which will also influence
strong westerly wave heights reaching between 20 to 26 ft on
Thursday. This system is also expected to bring moderate to heavy
rain rates to the Northern Panhandle and along the outer coast,
picking up Wednesday night and staying elevated through Thursday.
Within the first 12 hours, around 1 to 1.5 inches of rain are
expected for most coastal communities as well as Juneau. Yakutat
will feel the brunt of this system as it jumps onshore, expecting
between 1.5 and 2 inches within the first 12 hours and calming
down from there. Rain will continue Thursday, bringing another 1
to 2 inches to a majority of the panhandle, and reaching up to 3
inches in higher elevated areas.

The panhandle won`t see much of a break in between systems, as
another fast moving surface low jumps onshore in the southern
panhandle overnight into Saturday. Less than an inch of rain is
actually expected on Friday, with the majority around an inch
impacting the S Panhandle Saturday. Winds won`t be as strong with
this system, currently peaking at high end near gales early
Saturday morning and weakening quickly as the low dips inland and
directions start to turn offshore. Northerly outflow winds will
try to strengthen through Saturday, though they won`t last long as
another front moves into the gulf overnight Sunday into Monday.
Temperatures will be cooling through the week, with highs in the
mid to high 40s up north and low to mid 50s down south.

&&

.AVIATION...
System moving onshore today is bringing light rain and generally
MVFR flight conditions. VIS and CIGs will likely be IFR at times
for Yakutat due to steadier rain with onshore flow. Although rain
will let up tonight, MVFR flight conditions will likely continue
into Tuesday morning across most TAF sites, as CIGs will likely
remain lower. Another quick moving system is expected to move
onshore Tuesday, bringing more rain and continued MVFR flight
conditions, with IFR continuing for Yakutat.

With the system moving through this late afternoon, seeing some
elevated winds (12-20g25-28kt) and modest LLWS across the northern
TAF sites. Winds will generally be less than 10kts across the
southern panhandle through the period. Winds will increase
further across the north through the day Tuesday as the second
system moves onshore, generally becoming 15-25kts with gusts up to
around 35kt. For PAGY, winds could increase higher, up to around
40G50+kts, by late Tuesday afternoon. Strong LLWS is also expected
to develop for PAYA by Tuesday morning, and for the northern
panhandle airports by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters:
An active weak will continue for the Gulf of Alaska
as several gale force lows driving bring elevated winds and seas
into the Gulf of Alaska. Our next large system arrives Tuesday as a
fast moving low pushes into the northeast coast. This system will
once again bring gale force winds along the coast from Cape St.
Elias to the Fairweather grounds. This quick moving low will once
again build seas to 12 to 15 ft.

A much stronger system increases winds in the gulf Wednesday as a
front pushes its way through the gulf into the panhandle. This front
drives widespread gales of 35 to 40 kts across the eastern coast.
Along with gale force winds, seas build to 20 to 30 ft behind the
front in the central gulf. Along with high waves, areas of
significant swell has a chance go develop with waves of 15 to 20 ft
at a period of 15 to 18 seconds.

Inside Waters:
For the rest of today, fresh to strong breezes
continue across the inside channels north of Sumner Strait. Some
isolated areas across Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage are likely to
see times of near gales up to 30 kts this evening. These winds will
diminish slightly tonight ahead of the next system that arrives
Tuesday. Confidence has greatly increased that the quick moving low
on Tuesday will create gale force winds over the northern inner
channels. The strongest of these winds will mainly be throughout
Lynn Canal as a strong pressure gradient quickly develops Tuesday
afternoon. Sustained winds of 35 to 40 mph are likely with a chance
of storm force wind gusts up to 55 kts. Since this is a quick moving
system, winds are likely to diminish rapidly early Wednesday
morning.

There is then a short time frame weaker winds, around 10 to 15 kts
across the inner channels, before the next gale force system arrives
Wednesday night into Thursday. This frontal system will once again
likely to increase winds to fresh to strong breezes of 17 to 27 kts
across the area.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 10 AM AKDT Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon
     for AKZ317-319.
     Strong Wind from 10 AM AKDT Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon
     for AKZ318.
     High Wind Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for
     AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-053-644-651-652-663-664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-031>033-641>643-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99

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