379
FXAK67 PAJK 191355
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
555 AM AKDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...There`s not much to discuss in
the short term, with the main points being a gradual end to the
showers, clearing skies, and lighter winds today, followed by
widespread fog tonight.

Today, showers will continue to taper off from north to south, and
we`ll likely see some breaks in the clouds as a weak shortwave
trough moves out of the region. Light northwesterly flow aloft and
subsidence between the 850 and 500 millibar levels should keep
winds light. Given the recent rainfall, limited drying, and rapid
evening cooling from clearer skies and lighter winds, fog is
expected to form tonight.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/...Gale force front
with heavy rain in store for SE AK in the mid range then a quieter
weather pattern is established. The front tracking in from the west
Wednesday will weaken early Thursday with eastern gulf winds
dropping below small craft levels. Heavy rainfall hitting the NE
Gulf coast will expand over the entire region through the day
Thursday and into Friday. Heaviest rainfall near Yakutat with
Thursday rainfall totals of around 2 inches with an inch or so for
the rest of SE AK Thursday into Friday. Some more increases to winds
as the front moves through, with E-W inner channels initially then a
strong southerly gradient with N-S channel increase as the parent
low moves over. For now in the 20 kt range but upwards of 30 kt may
be seen. Models still differ on timing details of the low weakening
to an open wave trough. It is a spit between GFS/NAM and
ECMWF/Canadian, but kept synoptic forecast mostly as is due to the
uncertainty. After this system tracks east into the weekend high
pressure ridge moves in by the start of next week. Have a drying
trend for the weekend with better chances of breaks in cloud cover.
For next week ensembles have a broad weak low in place for the
extended range with lower probability of precipitation and decrease
in winds. Operational models have larger spread depicting individual
systems tracking through.

&&

.AVIATION.../ Until 12Z Sunday / West to northwest flow pattern
from the gulf onshore of the Northeast gulf coast and panhandle
will continue today. Ceilings this morning are 1500 to 5000 feet.
As the flow shift more northwest through the day, the conditions
will be improving and the shower activity will be be decreasing
for the panhandle. During the day expect to see ceiling rise
during the day. May need to keep an eye out for the potential of
fog to develop overnight. Overall expect a fair day to fly around
Southeast Alaska.

&&

.MARINE...Strong to fresh westerly breezes will persist over the
outer waters, from the Dixon Entrance up to Cape Edgecombe, keeping
wave heights elevated at 8 to 10 feet throughout the day. Winds
and waves in the eastern Gulf of Alaska will gradually diminish
into this evening from north to south.

In the Inner Channels, primarily westerly winds aloft combined
with rising pressures to the west are leading to longer-lasting
westerly flow. The main areas affected are the east-to-west
oriented Inner Channels, like Sumner Strait and the southern
entrance to Chatham Strait. These conditions should ease through
the day, with winds diminishing to light air conditions. Tonight,
light to calm winds are likely to trigger fog formation in the
Inner Channels, except for Lynn Canal and Clarence Strait. In
those areas, expect light breezes to be present, possibly
elevating the fog into a low stratus layer.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...Bezenek
MARINE...JLC

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