128
FXAK67 PAJK 101539
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
639 AM AKST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - Cold temperatures continue, with many areas seeing single
   digits or sub zero temperatures. Dangerously cold wind chills
   along White Pass.

 - Partly cloudy and breezy conditions through the week, with
   potential for more accumulating snow in the southern panhandle
   next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...The very cold breezy
northeasterly outflow pattern that we have been experiencing
continues, keeping winds elevated, especially for the northern
half of the panhandle, which is still creating some dangerously
cold wind chills. Cold Weather Advisories are in effect for the
Gustavus / Glacier Bay zone until 9AM today & the Haines
Borough/Klukwan zone until 3PM today, & an Extreme Cold Warning is
in effect for the Municipality of Skagway until Noon today. The
weather station at White Pass reported wind chill values as low as
52 degrees below zero overnight. A weak low pressure center moves
to the south of the panhandle this afternoon, keeping cloudcover
increased for the south and keeping chances for light
precipitation in the forecast for the far southern panhandle into
this evening, keeping warmer air advected into that area. After
that low departs, the arctic boundary that we have been talking
about finally moves through the far southern panhandle behind it
tonight into tomorrow, decreasing temperatures & cloudcover.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/...Only minor changes were
made to the long term forecast, mainly adjusting outflow wind
speeds and pushing the potential snow for next weekend back a day.

By Thursday morning, the low moving south of the panhandle will
have moved inland into BC and dissipated, with strong outflow
winds keeping any developing showers offshore until Saturday
morning. This means that the panhandle will remain dry through the
rest of the week, with low PoPs and partly cloudy skies
dominating the forecast. A small surface ridge developing on
Friday is expected to make that day the most clear and the least
windy. Precipitation is expected to return to the forecast
Saturday morning as a low jumps into the southern gulf and sends a
front northward into the panhandle. Uncertainty still remains in
how far this front will make it through the panhandle, as
persisting outflow winds will attempt to force the front to stay
more southern. With colder temperatures remaining through the long
term forecast, precipitation will most likely fall as snow.
Active weather looks to remain into early next week.

The main concerns for the long term remain the temperatures and
winds. The arctic boundary continues to extend southward through
the week, keeping below freezing temperatures through the extended
forecast. Daytime highs will struggle to reach into the 20s for
many locations in the northern and central panhandle, and into the
30s for the southern panhandle. Overnight lows during the week
will mostly stay in the single digits up north and in the 10s down
south, slightly increasing through the weekend as the next system
moves in, though still staying below freezing. An extreme cold
warning for Skagway, primarily along the Klondike Highway, is
still active through noon Wednesday for extremely cold
temperatures as low as 45 degrees below. Cold weather advisories
for the Haines Borough and Gustavus have been issued through 9 AM
Wednesday for wind chills as low as 15 degrees below, primarily
once the sun sets. Strong outflow also persists through the week,
with 20 to 35 kt winds and pockets of gales blowing through the
inner channels and funneling out into the coastal waters of the
gulf. The strongest winds will remain in the northern panhandle,
particularly down Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage and out of Cross
Sound, with gaps along the gulf coast serving as outlets for
strong winds to funnel through. There will be a brief decrease in
wind speeds on Friday, though Lynn Canal will still stay above 20
kts before outflow ramps up even stronger than before going into
the weekend. Strong gales are expected to spread through a
majority of the inner channels, with strongest winds remaining in
those hot spots in the northern panhandle. Freezing spray will
remain an issue in the inner channels and along the NE gulf coast
with these elevated winds, which could become heavy at times.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Thursday/...Overall clear skies and VFR conditions
continue to last across the northern half of the panhandle this
morning, while some lingering cloud cover and precipitation remains
across the southern panhandle following the wave that moved through
overnight. The majority of the northern panhandle remains benign for
flying conditions throughout the day, with the only concerns being
winds for Skagway and Haines with 15 to 30 kt northerly winds with
gusts to 30 to 40 kt, the winds increasing into the morning and
afternoon. Juneau remains seeing light and variable winds, but with
cross barrier flow at ridgetop remaining a concern into the
morning with NE 30 to 40 kt wind shear between 1000 and 1500 ft,
but this will gradually diminish throughout the day into tonight.

The southern half of the panhandle, from Petersburg southward,
continues to see predominantly MVFR conditions this morning as
precipitation and both low visibility and clouds linger over the
area. Petersburg and Wrangell will see predominantly MVFR conditions
as snow continues behind the main wave of precipitation, with
Petersburg seeing some reduced flight conditions to IFR with drops
to 2 SM VIS possible as more light and showery snow reduces the
visibility at times and CIGs dropping to AoB 1000 ft this morning.
Wrangell will see some fluctuations this morning as precipitation
begins to move out of the area, sometimes improving to VFR between
light showers, and sometimes dropping to IFR as VIS drops down to 2
SM and CIGs AoB 1000 ft, but predominantly remaining at MVFR into
this morning with a general improvement to VIS above 6 SM from the
snow overnight. Other parts of the southern panhandle will continue
to see some on and off precipitation this morning as onshore flow
continues, with lingering cloud cover between the precipitation
keeping the areas at MVFR with CIGs AoB 2500 ft. Some drops to VIS
may occur into this morning for Ketchikan and Klawock as snow is
expected to begin again by around 18Z.

Overall the southern panhandle should begin to see improvements to
VFR by around 00Z, with MVFR conditions lasting longest over
Ketchikan and Annette Island areas as precipitation is expected to
stay through tonight, while PoW and the central panhandle begin to
clear out around 06Z onwards as offshore flow begins to set up as
the low to the south moves more eastward during the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside Waters: Generally, the northeasterly outflow pattern
continues for the next several days, keeping up to around 40 kt
gale-force sustained winds for the northern 2/3 of the Inner
Channels with the strongest winds the farther north that you go,
with Northern Lynn Canal experiencing the strongest winds. These
winds will also be accompanied by fully-developed seas up to
around 17 ft with generally the highest waves the more northward
you go, due to the long-fetch of these strong winds. Additionally,
mainly due to air temperatures being so cold, up to heavy
freezing spray is also likely.

Outside Waters: Generally, northeasterly outflow winds up to 35 kt
gale-force are in store for the northeastern gulf through
Thursday. For Friday, the pressure gradient relaxes & winds
decrease. Finally, those winds ramp-up, again, up to around 40-45
kt gales for the same area for the weekend as the pressure
gradient tightens & northerly outflow intensifies, once again.
Significant wave heights top out at around 14 ft today & top out
at around 22 ft for the weekend. Some freezing spray is possible
for the northeastern gulf.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Extreme Cold Warning until noon AKST today for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ318.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ319.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ320.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011>013-031-053.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ021-032.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-031-033-642-643-651.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-032-034>036-053-641-644-652-
     661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...Contino
MARINE...JLC

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