576
FXAK67 PAJK 252238
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
238 PM AKDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SHORT TERM...

Key Points:
 - Showers continue tonight with breaks between precipitation
before diminishing Saturday.
 - A weak trough across the gulf will increase marine winds along
the coast Saturday.

Details: Showers diminish tonight as a low weakens over the far
northern panhandle. There will be breaks in between these showers. A
weak trough will then begin to move across the gulf late tonight
into tomorrow continuing rain for the southern panhandle. This
precipitation will be light with little to no precipitation
accumulation expected.

Winds for northern land areas will be the strongest tonight around
15 to 20 kts before diminishing this evening. The same story is
expected for the inside waters as the gradient weakens with the low.
Winds along inside waters and over land will then become light and
variable around 10 kts or less through Saturday. The outside waters
will increase tonight into tomorrow reaching moderate to fresh
breezes. Gusts of 25 to 30 kts along the coast and northern gulf
will occur as the trough mover over the area.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/...Continued wet weather pattern
for the mid and long range forecast over SE AK. Advancing low/front
Sunday into Monday now tracking further north. Overland winds
increasing by early Monday. Moderate to heavy rain should be more
widespread but with heaviest amounts aimed at the southern areas
with totals of an inch to two inches. The next system coming in late
next week is a low pressure system that all ensembles show coming in
along the western Gulf from the Aleutian Islands, bringing
precipitation to the panhandle around Wednesday into Thursday night.
All ensemble guidance at this time points towards an upper level
ridge over B.C. and a low cutting into the western Gulf. Southerly
winds for northern areas increase as the pressure gradients tighten.
EFI showing QPF for this time of year across parts of the panhandle
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through Saturday afternoon/...Widespread marginal
visual conditions with the occasional drop to instrument
conditions in heavier showers this afternoon and into the evening.
As precip diminishes and finally ends, overnight breaks in the
clouds will likely result in low scud and possibly even bona fide
fog in the usual fog magnets: Juneau, Petersburg, Klawock,
Gustavus. Generally dry conditions expected on Saturday with cloud
bases lifting slowly through the day. Light winds across SEAK - 10
kts or less. Freezing levels still lower than normal for this time
of the year, so departing and arriving instrument flights will
have to pay attention to airframe icing while in cloud. No
turbulence or LLWS concerns for the short term due to a weak
surface ridge situated over the Panhandle and northeast Gulf
coast.

&&

.MARINE...Outside: A weak trough moving over the Eastern Gulf with
narrow band of increasing winds reaching strong breeze (22 to 27
kt). The advancing low Sunday night into Monday now tracking further
north bringing more defined SE max small craft low end gale force
winds overnight. As parent low moves into NE Gulf small craft
westerlies develop then diminish Monday into early Tuesday. Next
small craft front tracks in Wednesday. Eastern gulf seas building to
12 ft from swell and wind waves by Monday.

Inside:  Saturday, most of the inner channels will be experiencing
light breezes (7 to 10 kt), though some areas could at times go
calm. Winds will begin to strengthen again during the latter half of
Sunday with advancing front. Stronger winds near Clarence Strait/
Dixon Entrance early Monday. Northerly shift with passing front but
then return to southerlies. Ridging over the panhandle Tuesday
picking up pressure gradient with south winds of 15 to 20 kt, mainly
for NS channels such as Lynn Canal.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ662>664-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...Fritsch
MARINE...PRB

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