503
FXAK67 PAJK 191425
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
525 AM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/ Incoming gale to storm force
front is the primary weather maker for the short range period this
morning. Currently this front is affecting the central gulf waters
and the NE gulf coast, but will be moving east and affecting the
rest of the panhandle tonight. Yakutat has seen both rain and snow
since around midnight from this front.

Generally the forecast has not changed all that much with this
system. We are still looking at the main area of wind and precip
moving into the panhandle late tonight through early Monday with
northern and central areas likely starting as snow before changing
over to rain at some point late Sunday or early Monday. The part
that has changed is that overnight model runs have trended towards
moving the main bands of precip through a little quicker then what
was depicted in previous forecasts mainly for late Sunday into
early Monday, but overall precip amounts have not changed all that
much. The most likely snow amounts are ranging around 1 to 4
inches overnight Sunday night with the higher totals in the higher
elevations of the Haines and Klondike Highways. However, with sea
level temperatures hovering in the mid 30s for most places Sunday
night, these amounts could be highly variable with areas of
higher or lower accumulations just because these places were a few
degrees colder or warmer at sea level or aloft.

For liquid equivalent precipitation total, Yakutat will receive
the brunt of it with 2.5 inches of precip possible through late
Sunday night. The rest of the panhandle meanwhile will receive
much less ranging from around 0.25 to up to an inch in some areas.

As for winds, most areas will remain below 20 kt through Sunday
evening before becoming increasingly gusty after midnight as the
front moves in. The exception is Yakutat where winds will be
increasing through the day before diminishing late tonight. Gusts
at Yakutat could also reach 40 mph during the afternoon and
evening hours as well.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday/...Winter spent a few days
over SE AK but as with most things it will exit with a return to
the warmer and less snowy conditions that have been with the
region more this season. Once again there will be a series of
gale force fronts crossing over the AK Gulf resulting in increased
winds, moderate to heavy precip, and with more SW flow ushering
in a warmer air mass. Ridging in between the fronts Tuesday and
Friday offer some breaks in steady precip however the periods of
onshore flow can keep a lower cloud deck with light drizzle. The
low and associated front on Wednesday -Thursday has shifted
further north in latest model runs. Still timing differences on
then precip bands move in. 24 hour rainfall totals ranging from
an inch to possibly 2 inches, heaviest over the NE Gulf Coast. GFS
has been on the higher side with the QPF past few runs.By this
time temps will have risen into the upper 30s to low 40s so
overall expect precip as rain or a rain snow mix. Exceptions
being the Northern Panhandle and higher elevations where snow
accumulations ranging from 2 to 5 inches. The lower amounts mainly
resulting of expected lower snow ratios. Through the long range
its the same story on repeat. Watching the weather break starting
Friday which may last until Sunday but this depends on when next
system makes in into the NE Gulf Coast which as some fair model
spread.

&&

.AVIATION...The anticipated front has reached the far northern
panhandle reducing visibilities and ceilings to IFR in Yakutat. This
front will continue across the panhandle through late tonight into
Monday morning creating widespread MVFR ceilings and visibilities.
Times of IFR will also continue due to heavier precipitation
lowering ceilings and reducing visibilities. This precipitation is
mainly rain, but snow will be present as well for the northern
panhandle. The southern panhandle will be the last to have this front
move over. This will help keep ceilings and visibilities to VFR
conditions with times of MVFR until the front approaches late
tonight into early Monday. LLWS present with the front will be
limited to areas along the coast with Yakutat having the greatest
wind shear. Many areas can expect increases to wind speeds and gusts
later today.

&&

.MARINE...Rather active marine weather through Monday with a gale
to storm force front moving through. The Gulf waters will receive
the brunt of the winds and seas with wide spread gales for the
northern gulf through tonight (some areas of storm force near Cape
Suckling today). Seas will also be a concern with heights of
around 14 to 20 ft through tonight before starting to subside on
Monday. The inner channels will be calmer with mostly sub 20 kt
winds until late tonight when the front moves in. At that point
expect areas of 20 to 30 kt southerly winds through Monday morning
before they start to diminish again.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through late tonight
     for AKZ317.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652-672.
     Gale Warning for PKZ642>644-651-662>664-671.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-053-641-661.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau