963
FXAK67 PAJK 030703 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1003 PM AKST Tue Dec 2 2025

.Evening and 06z Aviation Update...
No major changes to ongoing forecast this evening as front
continues is trek into the coast, overspreading light
precipitation and low clouds across majority of the panhandle.
Light precip will continue through the overnight period through
much of Wednesday as front pushes inland with overnight low
temperatures remaining steady in the upper 30s to low 40s at sea
level. Winds through tonight will be around 5 mph to 15 mph across
the panhandle, outside of Haines and Skagway which will see
sustained winds around 25mph with wind gusts around 35mph, but
expecting those to slowly diminish into Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION.../through Wednesday evening/
Wide variety of flight conditions across the panhandle this
evening, ranging from isolated VFR & IFR to predominate MVFR with
CIGS AoB 5000ft and visbys between 3 to 6SM within rain and mist.
Through Tuesday night, flight conditions will continue to worsen
as front pushes through the panhandle with high confidence of MVFR
to IFR flight conditions with CIGS AoB 2500ft and visbys around 2
to 4SM by 15z Wednesday morning, persisting through the
afternoon. Winds should remain around 10 kts or less overnight,
except for Haines and Skagway which will to see increased winds up
to 20kts and gusts up to 30kts gradually diminish into Wednesday
morning. Widespread precipitation comes to an end by Wednesday
evening, however again not expecting much improvement in flight
conditions throughout the TAF period.

SE-ly to S LLWS around 30kts around 2k ft ongoing as front pushes
into the coast, as verified by VAD profile winds from PACG.
Anticipating this to continue to push eastward across the
panhandle through the night, with strongest LLWS near 30kts
reaching Petersburg, Klawock, Wrangell, and Ketchikan by 09z to
12z Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 343 PM AKST Tue Dec 2 2025...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - An incoming front is moving into the panhandle this afternoon
   and will track through the area tonight.

 - This front will bring mainly rain, some increased wind speeds,
   and continued warmer-than-normal temperatures that will last
   through Thursday.

 - Late this week into next weekend, long range models are still
   hinting at a weather pattern that has been known to produce
   heavy snow. High uncertainty at this time but worth watching
   closely.

SHORT TERM.../through Thursday night/...
A passing front tonight is a big character in the early parts of
short term weather story. This quick-moving front will track
through tonight, bringing rain and brief elevated wind speeds.
Total rain amounts tonight will be around a half inch or less, so
not much by SE AK standards.

Continued onshore flow will keep the rainy and cloudy weather in
place over the panhandle. Rainfall amounts tomorrow will be even
lighter than tonight, with most areas receiving less than a half
inch. Light rain lingers into Thursday but the overall trend is
diminishing rain for Thursday.

Overland wind speeds may pick up to around 10 to 20 mph as the
front pushes through. But once the front clears your area, wind
speeds will calm back down and stay on the lighter side through
Thursday.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...
On Friday while one system will likely be passing over the south,
another low pressure will move into the NE gulf with a frontal
trough developing and extending over the northern inner channels.
Meanwhile on the north side of this front, much colder air will
push southward into the area from interior Alaska and Canada,
causing snow levels to steadily fall Friday night through the
weekend across the north. This is looking to bring potential for
significant snowfall to Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway on Saturday
and continuing Sunday. As cold temperatures push southward going
into Sunday, snow levels will fall to sea level across the Icy
Strait area and Juneau. This will cause a change over from rain to
snow with the first significant accumulations of the season in
these areas. Locations like out the road in Juneau will see more
snow than downtown with this type of pattern.

Ensemble models show at least a 20% probability of 24 hour
accumulations exceeding 12 inches, however these models currently
have a warm bias and actual temperatures are likely to be colder.
Our official forecast is trending colder with temps, but expect
them to be pushed colder still with subsequent updates.
Operational models favored for this forecast package were the 12z
GFS and Canadian.

Looking ahead Sunday and Monday, additional low pressure systems
move in while cold air under northerly outflow continues across
the north. This pattern would lead to back to back snowfall events
across the north and central panhandle. Stay tuned to updates
over the coming days on these potentially impactful weather
events, a Special Weather Statement has been issued.

MARINE...
Outside Waters: A front moves in from the west towards the
panhandle tonight through Wednesday morning, bringing a
southeasterly fresh to strong breeze (17 to 27 kt) as the front
moves eastward across the Gulf, with easterly winds up to near
gale (28 to 32 kt) near Cape St Elias later tonight as the front
moves into the NE Gulf coastline. After the front moves through
into tomorrow morning, winds will overall decrease and switch to a
more west to southwesterly direction as onshore flow continues.
Winds continue to diminish into Wednesday night as the surface
ridging develops in the Gulf with winds largely remaining below 15
kt in the Gulf into Thursday ahead of the next low moving into
the Gulf. Seas predominantly 9 to 12 ft tonight into Wednesday,
subsiding Wednesday to between 7 and 9 ft by Thursday.

Inner Channels: Frontal passage over the panhandle tonight
through tomorrow morning will bring southerly to southeasterly
moderate to fresh breezes (15 to 21 kt), with some areas seeing a
brief increase to strong breezes (22 to 26 kt), across the inner
channels as the front passes from W to E. The areas that will see
winds at a strong breeze tonight will be in northern Lynn Canal as
the pressure gradient stays strengthened, from near Point Fanshaw
up to Grave Point as surface ridging strengthens up Stephens
Passage as the front moves in, and Clarence Strait by late tonight
into tomorrow morning. Winds will quickly diminish following the
front even as onshore flow continues, with predominantly a
moderate breeze (11 to 16 kt) across the inner channels by
tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. Stephens Passage, northern
Lynn Canal and near Point Couverden are expected to stay a bit
stronger with staying at a fresh breeze for longer into tomorrow,
before diminishing as well into tomorrow night. Winds continue
this diminishing trend across the inner channels tomorrow night
into Thursday as ridging sets up in the Gulf.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-034-036-053-641>644-651-652-
     661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...Ferrin
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...Contino

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