056
FNAK79 PAFG 040723
FWSAFG

Spot Forecast for Birch Lake Fire...State of Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1123 PM AKDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 AKDT on July 04.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM AKDT FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
Hot and dry conditions continue through Saturday. Highs remain in
the low to mid 80s with minimum RHs in the low to mid 20s. No
showers or storms expected Friday, but a slight chance of isolated
showers and storms returns Saturday afternoon and evening. Winds
will be light and terrain driven through Friday morning when there
is a return of slightly stronger, more organized, easterly winds
Friday afternoon. Overall flow remains fairly light however with
ridgetop winds of 10 to 15 mph expected. The combination of these
winds and the continuing hot and dry conditions has necessitated a
Red Flag Warning for Friday. Increased fire activity is expected
and rapid fire growth is possible.  Friday night sees winds weaken
again and then shift more southerly Saturday while still remaining
weak. Sunday sees the start of a pattern change with increased
showers and a rapid drop in temperature that will last through
most of next week.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Areas of smoke.
CWR.................0 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 8 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL increasing to 7100 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....North around 4 mph.
Inversion burnoff...10am.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Areas of smoke.
CWR.................0 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 8 mph shifting to the east 5
                    to 7 mph overnight.
Ridgetop wind.......Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph in the evening becoming
east 5 to 10 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......7100 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....East around 8 mph.
Inversion setup.....10pm.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Areas of smoke.
                    Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................10 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......Isolated.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......Southeast winds around 10 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL increasing to 8700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 9 mph.
Inversion burnoff...10am.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Areas of smoke. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. South
winds around 6 mph.
.MONDAY...
Areas of smoke in the evening. Numerous showers. Lows in the
lower 50s. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds around 6 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Widespread showers. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 60s.
Southwest winds around 6 mph.

$$
Forecaster...STOKES
Requested by...Bryan Quimby
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517024.3/AFG
.DELDT 07/04/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL torrey.short@alaska.gov,colten.hines98@gmail.com,bryan_quimby@fws.gov,brittany.stillie@alaska.gov