672
FXAK69 PAFG 150000
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
400 PM AKDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively mild and wet weather is expected through the end of the
week. Wednesday will be the direst day in the Interior before a
weak system moving in from canada produces another round of rain
showers at lower elevations and snow showers at higher elevations.
Peeks of the sun this afternoon on the Eastern North Slope will
give way to clouds and increasing chances of snow showers as well
as gusty easterly winds tonight and will continue into Wednesday.
On the West Coast weak mostly cloudy conditions with scattered
rain showers will continue. As southerly winds transition to
easterly tonight and tomorrow expect wind speeds to increase along
the coast and off shore to 20 to 30 mph range.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered rain showers will diminish tonight and Wednesday
  through the Interior. Isolated pockets of fog possible in
  valleys Wednesday morning as skies begin to scatter out late
  Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

- Breezy northeasterly winds increase Wednesday. Gusts up to 35
  mph possible along Interior summits with gusts up to 25 mph
  possible in valleys unless sheltered from the northeast.

- Southerly gap flow will increase in the Alaska Range Passes
  beginning late Tuesday night and continuing into Thursday.
  Gusts up to 45 mph expected for the Eastern Alaska Range and
  gusts up to 40 mph possible for the Western Alaska Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Weaker, generally southerly, winds along the West Coast shift
  will begin to shift to the east late tonight and will increase
  on Wednesday. Offshore flow expected for most coastal
  communities. Gusts up to 30 mph are possible, but generally
  speeds will be 25 mph or less.

- Another wave of rain moves north across the West Coast Wednesday
  and then moves diminishes on Thursday as offshore winds
  strengthen.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Southerly winds will strengthen tonight and continue on
  Wednesday with winds up to 20 mph along the North Slope and with
  gusts up to 35 mph in the Brooks Range. Scattered snow showers
  are possible along Western North Slope and Western Brooks Range.
  Winds will shift to the east on Thursday and will gust to 35 mph
  along the Eastern Arctic Slope.


&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Deep longwave trough with axis over Siberia and the Kamchatka
Peninsula will continue to deepen and shift to the east and will
be centered over the Eastern Bering Sea and Western Alaska by the
end of the week. A powerful shortwave rotating along the base of
the longwave trough currently over the Central Aleutians will
fuel a strong low pressure system on the surface over the Central
Aleutians and will rapidly move east Wednesday and Thursday.
Ahead of this powerful shortwave a weak ridge aloft will push into
southwest AK tonight and over the Interior on Wednesday. On the
surface weak troughs will dominate over the Interior bringing
scattered rain showers in the valleys and snow showers at higher
elevations. As a trough rotates through the Western Interior and
West Coast changes of rain will increase Wednesday and then
decrease on Thursday as winds shift offshore. Southerly winds will
keep precip at a minimum over the eastern North Slope tonight and
Wednesday.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
An active pattern is expected to continue for the end of the week
and into early next week. All models are in fairly good agreement in
showing broad troughing from Siberia to the Western Interior through
the weekend. As next week begins, this broad troughing will shift to
the east. Models are continuing to show the potential for a
stronger system moving into the southern Bering Sea sometime Sunday
afternoon/evening and continue to push east across the Gulf coast.
The limiting factors to this system will be a weak ridge out ahead
of this system that some models are starting to display. This and
the positioning of the broad troughing will be the main drivers for
the track of this next system at the end of the weekend. This will
continued to be monitored over the next several days as the storm
draws nearer.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Gale Force easterly winds along the offshore waters of the North
Slope on Friday and Saturday will produce 8 to 10 foot seas in
ice free waters offshore between Demarcation Point and Utqiagvik.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-852.
&&

$$