534
FXAK69 PAFG 081327
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
427 AM AKST Wed Jan 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of mainly light snow will continue across portions of the
northern interior, Brooks Range, and eastern North Slope today as
a storm system slowly pulls away. Winds in general will begin to
subside for most areas during the day. Another low pressure
system will enter the Gulf of Alaska Thursday bringing increasing
winds across elevated terrain and possibly some light snowfall
for the southeastern and eastern Interior. Meanwhile a series of
strong lows is set to impact the Bering coastline Friday and into
the weekend. These systems will likely bring very strong winds
and snowfall to much of western Alaska with additional winds and a
continuation of above normal temperatures along with scattered
snow showers to other parts of northern Alaska as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:

Central and Eastern Interior...

* Ongoing gusty winds through the Alaska Range will continue to
  weaken through this afternoon and into tonight.

* Temperatures well above average are expected to continue:
 - Widespread high temperatures in the teens and 20s are expected.
   Some areas will see highs in the 30s.
 - The Yukon Flats will be colder than most of the rest of the
   Interior, with temps likely remaining in the single digits.

* Snow continues across much of the Interior:
 - An extensive area ranging from roughly Indian Mountain to
   Arctic Village will see 3 to 5 additional inches of snow
   through this evening.
 - The southern Alaska Range could see several inches of snow.
   Winds with blowing snow could result in low visibilities at
   times. Wintry mix or rain could fall at times, resulting in
   hazardous road conditions, especially through the morning
   hours.

*  Increasing east and northeast winds expected over the Dalton
   highway summits Thursday, likely resulting in reduced
   visibility in blowing snow.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

* Strong winds continue across the Chukchi Sea, affecting areas
  along its eastern coast. However these winds will continue to
  diminish through the day today.

* Most of the eastern North Slope will see anywhere from 1 to 3
  inches of snow fall, with higher totals in the elevated areas of
  the Brooks Range, including Atigun Pass. This snow will taper
  off by tonight.

West Coast and Western Interior...

* Ongoing strong north winds through the Chukchi Sea, Bering
  Strait, and Bering Sea will continue to weaken through the day
  today:
 - Winds through the Bering Sea and Bering Strait could increase
   back into the 45 to 55 mph range Thursday into Friday as
   another low moves into the Bering Sea.

* Above-normal temperatures are expected as temperatures rise
  widely into the teens and 20s. Areas near the northern slopes of
  the Alaska Range in particular, including McGrath, may see
  temperatures rise to near 30 today.

Analysis and Forecast Confidence...
Active weather conditions across the region are beginning to
settle down this morning as the remnants of the most recent low
pressure system continue to shift away from the area. There will
continue to be some lingering snowfall in northern areas into this
afternoon before coming to an end. In addition, most of the
stronger winds of the past few days will be subsiding today as
well. Meanwhile another impressive looking low is moving out of
the northern Pacific and will move into the Gulf of Alaska by
Thursday. Models are in decent agreement that this low will stall
somewhere near Prince William Sound by Thursday night. However
broad circulation around this low will bring some snow to the
southeast and east central Interior by Thursday afternoon. It also
appears that winds will increase a good deal over the higher
terrain of the interior, which could impact the Dalton Highway
summits during the day Thursday resulting in the potential for low
visibilities in blowing snow. Therefore have introduced a Winter
Weather Advisory for that area Thursday as a result.

A much stronger low will move into the southern Bering by Friday
and begin a track northwards along the west coast of Alaska.
While most forecast solutions follow this trend, there continues
to be discrepancies with the exact placement of this surface low.
A further west trajectory favors much stronger southerly winds
across the YK Delta and eventually up towards the Seward
Peninsula. The GFS is currently the farthest west with the low
while the NAM takes the low slightly onshore. Cluster analysis as
of this morning seem to favor the GFS, so for now will go with the
windier solution, especially for the western zones. Either way,
this low will bring significant snowfall to western areas that
have seen a snow deficit so far this season.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7 (Saturday through Tuesday)...
General low pressure over Western Alaska and adjacent marine
waters will continue into the extended time frame with yet
another strong low pressure center moving north through the region
Sunday and Monday, bringing more wind and precipitation. A return
of strong north winds over the western marine waters is possible
with this low pressure circulation Sunday. Some areas, including
the Seward Peninsula and parts of the Western Interior, could see
several inches of additional snow, potentially totaling upwards
of an inch of liquid precipitation (some of which may be mixed
with rain). The Central and Eastern Interior and North Slope will
see heightened winds with this system as well and could also see
some snowfall, although any accumulations are likely to be lower
than those in Western Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ848-850.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-816-817-851-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854-856.
&&

$$

Laney