027
FXAK69 PAFG 152249
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
249 PM AKDT Tue Apr 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A strong low from the North Pacific will move to
Bristol Bay Wednesday afternoon. This will spread a sprawling warm
front north along the West Coast and Western Interior bringing
mixed precipitation and messy conditions. Across the Interior,
strong Chinook flow will bring southerly gap winds as high as 80
mph through Alaska Range Passes and at Delta Junction and near
Healy. High pressure over the Beaufort Sea will bring strong
easterly winds and blizzard conditions to the Arctic Coast
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Strong gap winds Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning with
  gusts of 70 to 80 mph possible through Alaska Range Passes and
  near Delta Junction and Healy. High Wind Warnings have been
  issued.

- Temperatures warm through the week with highs in the mid 40s to
  mid 50s by Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A Northern Pacific low moves in on Wednesday with widespread
  rain and snow.
- Higher terrain above 1500 feet will remain mostly all snow.
- SW Alaska and Western Interior should begin as all snow
   Wednesday morning into the afternoon, then change to rain in
   the valleys/under 1500 feet during mid to late afternoon.
- Coastal areas will be a bit colder and stay snow through the
   evening.
- Nome and the Seward Peninsula will be right on the changeover
   line. Eastern Seward Peninsula looks to change to rain
   Wednesday night, while the western Seward Peninsula may stay
   all snow.

Snowfall Totals:
- There will be a wide range with the potential for 6 inches or
  more above 1500 feet. 2 to 8 inches along the coast (Heaviest
  along the YK Delta Coast). 1 to 4 in Western Interior Valleys.

- Most precipitation ends Thursday night into Friday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Blizzard Warnings have been issued for Thursday through Friday
  along the Arctic Coast. Easterly winds will gust as high as 50
  mph. Expect 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation.

- Light snow in the Brooks Range is likely Thursday morning and
  may become heavier in the afternoon.
- Snow looks to diminish in coverage during the evening and
   overnight.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure aloft
is slowly building over the eastern Interior, but will be stunted
by a strong vertically stacked low that will move to Bristol Bay
Wednesday afternoon. This feature will be the main driver of
weather across Alaska through the week. Ahead of this low, a stout
warm front will bring abundant moisture to Western Alaska. While
climatologically a dry time of year, precipitable water values
with this warm front are 4 standard deviations above normal, and
precipitation will fall as a mix of rain and snow leading to messy
conditions. Over the Central and Eastern Interior, strong Chinook
conditions and a 7-9 mb gradient across the Alaska Range will
bring southerly winds gusting as high as 80 mph through Alaska
Range passes as well as what will likely be the warmest
temperatures so far this spring across the Interior. High Wind
Warnings have been issued for Alaska Range Passes. A surface high
near 80 degrees north latitude will strengthen and drift south
over the Beaufort Sea to bring strong east winds to the Arctic
Coast Thursday morning through Friday night. This will coincide
with precipitation from the warm front as it moves north. Have
issued Blizzard Warnings anticipating blowing snow and low
visibility across the entire Arctic Coast during this 36 hour time
period.

Models are in good to excellent agreement on the overall pattern
aloft, though the GFS lags behind other models on spreading
precipitation from the warm front north of the Brooks Range. We
will lean the forecast away from this solution and use a blend of
more of the ECMWF/NAM/Canadian. We will use the Canadian for winds
along the Arctic Coast and a blend using mostly the NBM for
temperatures.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...A broad trough will reform over
Alaska and the storm track looks to continue to be active tracking
into Bristol Bay. Weak ridging will form over the Interior Monday
and Tuesday. Temperatures look to be near normal with above normal
precipitation. Periods of light rain cannot be ruled out across
the Interior next week. Otherwise, weather related impacts look
to be minimal.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ802>805.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ847-849.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ837.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803>805-817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-812-854-856>858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-851>853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
&&

$$

Chriest