507
FXAK69 PAFG 241237
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
437 AM AKDT Sun Aug 24 2025

SYNOPSIS...

The word of the day...wet. Active weather will continue across the
majority of the state with favorable moist, westerly flow aloft. A
system will be moving E across central Alaska today, bringing in a
good amount of precip across the West Coast and the Interior. A
ridge will begin to build in over Canada on Monday, allowing the
next weather system, expected to begin moving across the area
Monday night, to move across the state farther to the north.
Troughing will continue to deepen through the week, allowing for
southerly flow to set up across the Alaska Range by Tuesday night.
This will bring gusty winds across the AK Range and chinooking
conditions in and around Fairbanks.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

... A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALASKA RANGE FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

- A system will be moving E across the Interior today, bringing
  more widespread precipitation. The heaviest amounts of
  precipitation will be across the White Mountains with rainfall
  totals between 0.5" and 1.5" expected.

- A second system on Monday with more widespread rain across the
  area, with the heaviest rain W and NW of Fairbanks.

- Southerly winds pick up over the Alaska Range Monday afternoon
  bringing gusts around 60 mph through Windy Pass, 50 to 55 mph
  trough Isabel Pass, and around 50 mph in Delta Junction.

- Warmer temperatures and breaks in the cloud cover are possible Tuesday
  into Wednesday, particularly near the Canadian border.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A quasi-stationary frontal boundary wavers across the area
  through the middle of next week. Heavy rainfall in excess of 3
  inches is likely between the Nulato Hills and the south-central
  Brooks Range.

- A low pressure approaches the Seward Peninsula on Monday. Depending
  on the low track, it may produce another round of gusty
  southwest winds and high surf for the Norton Sound.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Mostly dry weather on Sunday ahead of another round of rain spreads
  north of the Brooks Range on Monday.

- Snow may mix with rain at times, particularly in the higher
  elevations of the west-central Brooks Range. Little to no
  accumulation is expected.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

The weekend continues with westerly flow continuing across the
state. A 504 dm low continues to spin in the Arctic which will
bring a wave of precip across the North Slope beginning today.
Some areas at higher elevations may see a rain snow mix. Farther
south, a weaker wave of energy will move E/NE across the state on
Sunday bringing widespread areas of rain. The heaviest areas of
rain on Sunday will be from Tanana to the White Mountains with 1"
to 2" of rainfall expected. This westerly trend and waves of
energy will continue across the state through the end of the
weekend. The upper levels will begin to shift southerly over the
AK Range and SE portions of the state on Monday, with a strong
ridge beginning to build up over Canada. This will bring gusty
winds across the AK Range, with gusts up to 60 mph, and
chinooking conditions in and around Fairbanks. A Wind Advisory
has been issued for these zones and will be in effect from Monday
afternoon through late Tuesday night. Precipitation will be
lighter around Fairbanks as the southerly flow will dry things
out. However, a few frontal boundaries will move over the AK
Range, keeping a slight chance of rain possible through the end of
the week. As high pressure is developing over Canada, a N-S
oriented trough will begin to dig deeper into the Bering see. This
will shift the upper level flow over the state out of the
south/southwest. This will continue to saturate the West Coast and
Western Interior with multiple rounds of precipitation through
the middle portions of the week. A closed upper-level low will
begin to develop over the Bering, just off of the coast to the SW
of Hooper Bay. This will continue to bring in moisture from the SW
through the week.


FIRE WEATHER...No change from the previous discussion
Previous Discussion issued at 4:10pm AKT on Sat Aug 23

Fire weather concerns will be very low across the state with the
exception for the Upper Tanana Valley. Min RH values through the
early next week will dip into the 30s. For Isabel Pass where
southerly winds gusting up to about 45 mph are expected Saturday
afternoon and Monday afternoon with lighter south winds on Sunday.
Elsewhere, light south/southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph are expected
for the end of this week until a more amplified Chinook pattern sets
in by Tuesday or Wednesday. Warming temperatures and less cloud
cover should allow for lower RH across a broader portion of the
eastern interior on Tuesday and Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY...No change from the previous discussion
Previous Discussion issued at 4:10pm AKT on Sat Aug 23

A hydrologic outlook remains in effect for the majority of
western and Northwestern Alaska was expanded to the hills north of
Fairbanks. There will be two additional rounds of heavy
precipitation with areas of light to moderate rain continuing
through at least Friday next week. The next round of heavy rain
will focus more on the Central Interior along a stalled frontal
boundary Sunday through Monday morning. A SW to NE oriented
rainfall axis of 1 to 2.0 inches of rain accompanies this with
locally higher amounts up to 3 inches is expected across the
higher elevations of the White Mountains. The third round spins up
the West Coast on Monday and spreads across the North Slope on
Tuesday. Similar rainfall amounts are expected with the third
round resulting in additional rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3 inches
by Tuesday evening from the west coast to the central Interior.
Locally higher amounts in excess of 5 inches are possible where
rainfall is most persistent, particularly at higher elevations of
the West Coast and Western Interior. Furthermore, snow levels will
be relatively high for this event; above 8000 feet allowing for
high elevation glacier melt. Additional rainfall is possible
through the end of the week (heaviest south of the Alaska Range)
and rising water levels are expected for most interior rivers.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...

Chinooking conditions will continue across the Alaska Range
through the end of the week with southerly flow continuing and
the trough out west continuing to amplify. This will continue to
keep winds gusty through the Alaska Range. Models are hinting at
a cold front moving NE out of the upper Kuskokwim on Thursday, in
association with a strong shortwave embedded within the trough. A
chance for a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out as a decent amount
of CAPE is expected to accompany this front. Cool and wet
conditions are expected to continue through the rest of the week
and into the weekend with broad N-S troughing across the western
portion of the state.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-847-849.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815-850-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-851-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

Twombly